scorpioncapital Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 They are a bit too focused on the external management of the stock price. I've seen that in their speeches before. This is not necessarily bad. Would you rather take an apathetic management that just lets a price languish or one that at least tries to do something, spinoffs, presentations to institutions, etc... But on the other hand, they shouldn't get too disappointed with the twists and turns of the business cycle over many years either, recessions are not unknown to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 I'm mostly fine with what they are doing. My comment was mostly for myself really so I would not have wrong mental image about their CAGR. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Generally my strategy has been to hold anything with 'liberty' in the name if I liked the vehicle (currently Media & Ventures) and sell down any spinoffs after the discount closes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Generally my strategy has been to hold anything with 'liberty' in the name if I liked the vehicle (currently Media & Ventures) and sell down any spinoffs after the discount closes. So far probably good strategy. :) Although LBRDA and LSXMA are possibly holds or maybe even buys. Disclosure: I own most Liberties at various sizes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smj Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Anyone have any thoughts on this? A basket of Malone related stocks weighted by Gabelli for a 1% mgmt fee. Doesn't seem to be market cap weighted. Interesting concept as I am always rotating in and out of Liberty stocks and reallocating. I'm currently in Braves, Media and Sirius. I rotated out of Global earlier this year and Broadband in the low 60's to go big in Braves. http://gabelli.com/Gab_pdf/PRs/ETMF_20161129.pdf http://www.standard.net/Business/2016/11/22/Gabelli-to-launch-ETF-to-invest-in-Malone-s-companies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Anyone have any thoughts on this? A basket of Malone related stocks weighted by Gabelli for a 1% mgmt fee. Doesn't seem to be market cap weighted. Interesting concept as I am always rotating in and out of Liberty stocks and reallocating. I'm currently in Braves, Media and Sirius. I rotated out of Global earlier this year and Broadband in the low 60's to go big in Braves. http://gabelli.com/Gab_pdf/PRs/ETMF_20161129.pdf http://www.standard.net/Business/2016/11/22/Gabelli-to-launch-ETF-to-invest-in-Malone-s-companies Seems a bit parasitic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LIBERTY_MEDIA_CP_MEDIA_GROUP/139023 LMCK price 27. Liberty acquired 18.7% for $746m in cash. The second step to acquire the remaining 81.3% should, subject to regulatory approval and a shareholder vote, close in Q1’17 funded by 138m LMCK shares, a $351m LMCK exchangeable note with a reference price of 105% of the $21.26 reference price, and another $354m in cash. Upon closing of the second step the company will be renamed Formula One Group with the ticker FWON. CVC, the private equity sponsor of Delta Topco will continue to own ~25% of the business, and CEO Bernie Ecclestone ~2%. So Liberty Media is paying 0.746+0.354+0.351+0.138x27=5.177 BN for a 73% stake. So the total valuation for F-1 is 7.09 bn. The levered FCF is 0.25 bn for now, and will be 0.4 bn in 2020. The P/FCF is 28. Definitely not cheap for a single digit grower. The write-up didn't say how to get a 20% IRR. Even at 20 P/FCF multiple, the FCF has to grow 20% a year to achieve a 20% IRR. Of all the major leagues, only NBA has achieved 20% revenue growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm guessing the market expects a lot of operating leverage here. With all the debt and existing expenses, it may take substantially less top line growth to increase FCF by substantial amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm guessing the market expects a lot of operating leverage here. With all the debt and existing expenses, it may take substantially less top line growth to increase FCF by substantial amounts. That's true, but it also takes substantially less to shrink FCF with such a high leverage. VRX for example. :) Of course LMCA is better than VRX. But leveraged growth should be a concern to investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 It's an interesting thing I've seen here...I've seen: 1. Great business - no debt. 2. Great business - highly leveraged. 3. Bad business - no debt. 4. Bad business - highly leveraged. Buffett has often said that #1 is preferred, a good business doesn't require leverage to do well. In fact, I looked at Precision Castparts vs say Transdigm, PCP had virtually no debt and was cranking out good money. Either it had paid off debt from many years of free cash flow or it grew organically and never used much debt. A superior situation indeed. But one thing I've learned from experience is to stay away from #3 and #4. The debt is irrelevant in that case, but of course #4 is a disaster waiting to happen. #2....is interesting. This is less than ideal but whoever was guiding a business like this had one key mental filter very right. A good, moaty, quality business with quality and regular cash-flows can be leveraged up with somewhat more safety than a bad, volatile business with lumpy earnings and a soft or non-existent moat. Why would someone do #2 instead of #1? Can you be wrong about a 'good' vs a 'bad' business? Or can the moat erode over time? What sort of business is Formula 1? Are earnings currently depressed? Is the greater # of races and Internet/tech streaming going to quickly elevate profits? The cynic might say that high leverage implies you do not want to put too much of your OWN money in because things can go very wrong and you're not sure and are willing to gamble going to zero because you have such a small stake (notice Malone and Maffei own just 4% of the total entity). An optimist might say that high leverage implies extreme confidence in the durability of the franchise and the purchase price and who would risk even their small amount of capital going to zero? I don't know enough about this one yet to reach a conclusion...maybe someone knows if Formula 1 is something you would see around in 10-20 years and materially expanded. Do people watch this stuff in an economic depression? What is the history of large, global sports franchises , a somewhat discretionary luxury, in a world full of change and volatility? Of course, you can't buy the Olympics or the World Cup. You can make money tangentially. There are not a lot of global sport franchise 'royalty', 'merchandising', and 'advertising' rights all rolled up into one that someone can own. This makes it a unique and eclectic asset, whether it also makes it a durable and profitable long-term venture is a question that requires some reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm guessing the market expects a lot of operating leverage here. With all the debt and existing expenses, it may take substantially less top line growth to increase FCF by substantial amounts. That's true, but it also takes substantially less to shrink FCF with such a high leverage. VRX for example. :) Of course LMCA is better than VRX. But leveraged growth should be a concern to investors. The Malone's cos are the only ones I hold in my portfolio which operate with lots of debt. And the reason is Malone has a very long track record of using debt shrewdly and carefully. Let's hope he knows what he is doing this time too. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Does anyone have a link to the CNBC interview mentioned in the press release announcing the close of the acquisition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Cable cowboy John Malone eyes the new landscape "The Liberty Media chief reveals why ‘cord-cutting’ doesn’t worry him and what he thinks is the biggest issue facing Fox News" Cable_cowboy_John_Malone_eyes_the_new_landscape.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Cable cowboy John Malone eyes the new landscape "The Liberty Media chief reveals why ‘cord-cutting’ doesn’t worry him and what he thinks is the biggest issue facing Fox News" Thank you, David, for sharing! Very interesting. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikhil25 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 +1 Thanks for sharing! Cable cowboy John Malone eyes the new landscape "The Liberty Media chief reveals why ‘cord-cutting’ doesn’t worry him and what he thinks is the biggest issue facing Fox News" Thank you, David, for sharing! Very interesting. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Hi everyone, Is there anyone long FWONA that thinks its a good buy today. I've been doing a lot of diligence on it. I think it's a great asset, but I'm not understanding why Liberty chose to pay the approx 17-18x multiple of EBITDA / approx 20x of earnings that they did (it's sort of where comps' like MANU trade too). They can probably tack on a lot of long-term debt safely so I get that that aspect of it will help them compound at a much faster rate. However, i'm still not there from a valuation perspective, especially considering they're going to bring the leverage down somewhat on the F-1 Group within FWONA. I'm clearing missing something because the shares are implying a valuation that is maybe only 20% higher than what Liberty bought it for. Anyone think this is a good buy today and if so, how do you get there? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Hi everyone, Is there anyone long FWONA that thinks its a good buy today. I've been doing a lot of diligence on it. I think it's a great asset, but I'm not understanding why Liberty chose to pay the approx 17-18x multiple of EBITDA / approx 20x of earnings that they did (it's sort of where comps' like MANU trade too). They can probably tack on a lot of long-term debt safely so I get that that aspect of it will help them compound at a much faster rate. However, i'm still not there from a valuation perspective, especially considering they're going to bring the leverage down somewhat on the F-1 Group within FWONA. I'm clearing missing something because the shares are implying a valuation that is maybe only 20% higher than what Liberty bought it for. Anyone think this is a good buy today and if so, how do you get there? Thank you. There is a recent, but publicly available VIC writeup that provides a bullish argument: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LIBERTY_MEDIA_CP_MEDIA_GROUP/140335 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 KJP, thanks for the quick reply and the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 Does anyone following this story know of Liberty's intention to leverage maintained at the FWONK group level, (not at the F-1 sub level - here they talked about bringing Net Debt to EBITDA down from 7.4x to 5-6x)? I haven't yet come across that piece but I think it's meaningful for evaluating the price of the shares 4-5 years from now if they're able to/intend to maintain the current leverage. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 also does anyone know how much operating leverage there could be with the team payments from new revenue opportunities? I'll post here if I find out. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170919006665/en/Liberty-Media-Corporation-Launches-Secondary-Offering-Behalf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 New interview up discussing Liberty SiriusXM http://intelligentinvesting.podbean.com/e/liberty-siriusxm-group-anthony-morley/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 great first race on the new TV contract....was borderline unwatchable. https://jalopnik.com/espns-f1-season-opener-broadcast-was-a-catastrophe-1824057087 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 Could someone please confirm how much Malone owns of Liberty Formula One? I have him at only $~68M which is the value of his FWONB voting shares and I can't seem to find documentation of ownership for any A or K shares ??? Trying to puzzle together a look at his overall portfolio in terms of dollars invested regardless of voting power to see where his money really is, but it's hard without a Bloomberg terminal. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Could someone please confirm how much Malone owns of Liberty Formula One? I have him at only $~68M which is the value of his FWONB voting shares and I can't seem to find documentation of ownership for any A or K shares ??? Trying to puzzle together a look at his overall portfolio in terms of dollars invested regardless of voting power to see where his money really is, but it's hard without a Bloomberg terminal. Thanks! Bloomberg terminal? just look at the public filings. The Def 14A , voting proxy. Name and Address of Beneficial Owner Title of Series Amount and Nature of Beneficial Ownership Percent of Series (%) Voting Power (%) John C. Malone LSXMA 1,167,728 (1) 1.1 47.6 c/o Liberty Media Corporation LSXMB 9,455,341 (1) 95.8 12300 Liberty Boulevard LSXMK 17,451,752 (1) 7.8 Englewood, CO 80112 BATRA 116,771 (1) 1.1 BATRB 945,532 (1) 95.8 BATRK 3,263,734 (1) 8.5 FWONA 291,930 (1) 1.1 FWONB 2,363,834 (1) 95.8 FWONK 4,710,168 (1) 2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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