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MCOX - Mecox Lane


king888

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What is your IV for the company ? Do you have a good comparable ?

I didn't put much calculation into the article because it might be too long.  But here is my thought.

 

Cash & Equivalent (including structured bank deposit ) is $34 million.  No long-term debt.  Total ADS is 11.47 million units.  Liquid asset(Cash) per ADS is $2.96

 

And another asset such as Wujiang warehouse is $40 million.  The 40% of Giosis Mecoxlane venture is around $10 million. That is another  $3-4 per ADS .

 

The share price as of today is priced for bankruptcy or outright fraud.  But I disagree.  MCOX will save a lot of cash this year due to  transferring the operation of M18.com to Giosis. And the online marketplace model is viable in China because China is a low-income and developing nation.  So everyone wants to be a merchant because wages is low. The problem is how they are going to compete with Taobao. But I assume Gmarket's founder is a great entrepreneur. And they also have a coorperation from eBay as I said in the article.

 

Assuming that Mecox can at least recover back to the profit just like in 2007 or 2008. It is $3-4 million profit a year. That will be good enough to double the share price from here. 

 

One thing that I didn't mention in the article is the company is buying back many ADS recently  .If you look at Level2 quote ,there were a huge bid volume almost everyday.  So at least ,they are honest in the buyback program. And the last institutional investor in MCOX is Fidelity which holds around  240,000 ADS and I guess the selloff recently was from them. If I count the volume correctly, the selling pressure from Fidelity should be gone soon.

 

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Interesting company. Are you sure the options still have a $5.6/ADS strike? If I remember correctly - I looked at this company in the past - the CEO owns most of the company through options, and the strike price has been adjusted downwards repeatedly. Or I'm confused with another company...

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Interesting company. Are you sure the options still have a $5.6/ADS strike? If I remember correctly - I looked at this company in the past - the CEO owns most of the company through options, and the strike price has been adjusted downwards repeatedly. Or I'm confused with another company...

 

The options was adjusted to $0.16 per share which is equate to $5.6 per ADS.  It was issued at higher exercise price but was adjusted down accordingly in December 2011. And yes, CEO owns 13% of the company but about 60% of his stake is in options. 

 

Reference: 20-F  page 77  and page F-19

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4YNVOS/2192062236x0xS1104659%2D12%2D26121/1501775/filing.pdf

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