king888 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 My SeekingAlpha's article. Mecox Lane Offers Super Cheap Opportunity To Invest With Sina And eBay Partnership http://seekingalpha.com/article/1293641-mecox-lane-offers-super-cheap-opportunity-to-invest-with-sina-and-ebay-partnership Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 What is your IV for the company ? Do you have a good comparable ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 What is your IV for the company ? Do you have a good comparable ? I didn't put much calculation into the article because it might be too long. But here is my thought. Cash & Equivalent (including structured bank deposit ) is $34 million. No long-term debt. Total ADS is 11.47 million units. Liquid asset(Cash) per ADS is $2.96 And another asset such as Wujiang warehouse is $40 million. The 40% of Giosis Mecoxlane venture is around $10 million. That is another $3-4 per ADS . The share price as of today is priced for bankruptcy or outright fraud. But I disagree. MCOX will save a lot of cash this year due to transferring the operation of M18.com to Giosis. And the online marketplace model is viable in China because China is a low-income and developing nation. So everyone wants to be a merchant because wages is low. The problem is how they are going to compete with Taobao. But I assume Gmarket's founder is a great entrepreneur. And they also have a coorperation from eBay as I said in the article. Assuming that Mecox can at least recover back to the profit just like in 2007 or 2008. It is $3-4 million profit a year. That will be good enough to double the share price from here. One thing that I didn't mention in the article is the company is buying back many ADS recently .If you look at Level2 quote ,there were a huge bid volume almost everyday. So at least ,they are honest in the buyback program. And the last institutional investor in MCOX is Fidelity which holds around 240,000 ADS and I guess the selloff recently was from them. If I count the volume correctly, the selling pressure from Fidelity should be gone soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Interesting company. Are you sure the options still have a $5.6/ADS strike? If I remember correctly - I looked at this company in the past - the CEO owns most of the company through options, and the strike price has been adjusted downwards repeatedly. Or I'm confused with another company... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Interesting company. Are you sure the options still have a $5.6/ADS strike? If I remember correctly - I looked at this company in the past - the CEO owns most of the company through options, and the strike price has been adjusted downwards repeatedly. Or I'm confused with another company... The options was adjusted to $0.16 per share which is equate to $5.6 per ADS. It was issued at higher exercise price but was adjusted down accordingly in December 2011. And yes, CEO owns 13% of the company but about 60% of his stake is in options. Reference: 20-F page 77 and page F-19 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4YNVOS/2192062236x0xS1104659%2D12%2D26121/1501775/filing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wanna bet that the strike price of his options are adjusted downward again when the next 20F is released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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