GOFPY - Greek Organization of Football Prognostics

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

One of the best named stocks I've ever owned is the "Greek Organization of Football Prognostics"!  Whenever I talk about it to my friends, they look at me like I've got an 3rd eye or just busted loose out of the insane asylum.  Those funny looks seem to be happening more & more often...

 

Anyways...

 

Does anybody do anything with GOFPY?

 

I am contemplating expanding my position.  I am thinking that the panic over the situation in Cyprus (which GOFPY has some business in) might drive the stock down further.  So I'm thinking I might have a chance to get some more at $3/share.

 

Even at $4/share, the stock is kind of cheap.  P/E of a bit less than 4, dividend yield of close to 10%...

 

Other financial metrics look good, ROE, ROA especially.

 

Of course, when you tell people you are invested in Greek stocks, they laugh and give you "that funny look".  There are certainly problems in and with Greece...But if I were going to buy a business, I would love to have the lottery & gambling concession.  Also perhaps a brewery/distillery and tobacco.  If people have ANY money, they are going to buy these things....

 

So what happens if Greece leaves the Euro?  I am going to wager that people are still going bet!  Most of GOFPY's transactions are for only a few Euro.  If Greece leaves the Euro, I think that their transactions will STILL be the equivalent amount in Drachma, or whatever the successor currency is.  You've got to be pretty broke to not be able to bet 3 or 5 Euro with Apu at your corner Quik-E mart.

 

What happens if the situation in Greece ever gets better?  If GOFPY was able to make this much money through the choas, imagine what they can do in better times?

 

Of course, there are few pesky problems...There are rumors that "Lord Humongous" and his band of hooligans might be coming to Greece...but barring that, I don't see a lot of downside from here.

 

Any thoughts?

[Guest hellsten]

Nice company name :D I haven't looked at "Greek Organization of Football Prognostics", but I have thought about investing in Greece. I haven't had the cojones to do it yet.

 

Franis Chou writes (http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/AR12.pdf):

 

The Eurozone is the perfect environment for finding bargains. For example, there are plenty of Greek companies with fine

economics, strong balance sheets and a shareholder friendly management that are selling for less

than 4-times after tax earnings. Let’s say that Greece, for one reason or another, leaves the Euro and

reverts to the drachma. If this currency were then devalued by 50%, that stock would then be

valued at 8-times earnings (in Canadian dollars because of the devaluation), which is still very

cheap. The same scenario is starting to play out in Spain and Italy."

 

Our enthusiasm over this is tempered by the fact that the devaluation of the drachma versus the

Euro or the Canadian dollar or any of the major currencies may be greater than 80%. We have seen

many examples of this happening to international currencies in the past. One example is the

Indonesian rupiah during July 1997 to June 1998, when the currency was devalued by about 90%

against the U.S. dollar. We saw a similar situation in Russia, from August 1998 to March 1999,

when the ruble was devalued by about 78% against the U.S. dollar as well as in Argentina, from

January 2002 to June 2002, when the peso was devalued by around 74% against the U.S. dollar. We

believe it would be safer and more prudent to buy stocks after any devaluation of the local currency

– at least, that is what our research is showing. The key point is that returns of the Chou Funds will

be measured in Canadian dollars and not in drachmas. Therefore, substantial currency devaluation

is an important factor to consider when investing in troubled countries. The other alternative is to

look for companies that are undervalued and also have a substantial operation outside of Greece.

[berkshiremystery]

Just to let you know,... we had here already some prior discussions on OPAP/ Greek Organization of Football Prognostics. But always interesting to hear new thoughts on them.

 

OPAP Annual Report

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/opap-annual-report/

 

OPAP SA

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/opap-sa/msg25995/#msg25995

 

 

 

 

[Phaceliacapital]

OPAP is an interesting case, however:

 

• How will the online case play out?
  
• What will happen when HR has sold their stake? Will they compensate their loss of this cash cow by heightened taxes in the future? (already happened to some extent when they elevated to 30%)
  
• How competitive would they be without their monopoly position? It is clear that with contracts untill 2030 (2020 for some games) they have little to fear in terms of VLT and offline gaming competition, but can they operate competitively on an international level?
  
• Will it be able to repeat a Lottomatica? (also a very interesting opportunity and world leader in terms of wagers bet, although higher priced, but very transparent financials (75% of revenue for the next 7 years is already signed for)
   
  

 

It is very interesting but I am currently still a little bit hesistant into how much exactly the HR will take from OPAP...

 

The financials are "appealing", to say the least :D