Do you think Bitcoin is a safe store of value?

[DeepSouth]

 

Very good stuff in this blogpost.

Thanks for posting.

 

SD

 

You're welcome.

 

@DeepSouth can you understand you're a masochist from my point of view? Anyway, let's just all vote with our wallets and things will work out at some point :)

 

I honestly don't understand your point of view. I'd say the empirical end result of your policy desires leads to decade long depressions and wild and violent swings in inflation and deflation. It's not masochism to desire an entity with the power to smooth out economic cycles and encourage growth. The federal reserve is one of the few things the US government gets mostly right. If you're terrified of your savings being withered away by low single digit inflation but don't want principal risk for your savings buy TIPS.

 

I own bitcoin because I think the risk/reward is fair from here even though I think most bullish arguments for bitcoin are very stupid.

[SharperDingaan]

'Anarcho Capitalist'. Trust no one but yourself, Bitcoin as the currency and payment solution; block chain and smart contracts as close cousins. It is super disruptive because it forces material changes in how business is conducted - and hence, truly is the 'friend' of the masses.

 

All CB's have 2 faces. The 'dark side' is systematic debasement (Eastblock, Zimbabwe, South America, etc.) and capital controls (Belarus, China, Russia, etc.) to trap a population within a national border. The 'light side' is the mitigation of economic cycles, and the nurturing of  business climates that you describe. One has to have experienced the 'dark side' to fully appreciate the 'light'. Obviously not all CB's are the same - so choose your partners wisely!   

 

'Old bones' get to be 'old bones' - because they are very good at being anti-fragile. They may lose a battle, but will almost always make the finish line - when most others will not. Hence while the features of the Bitcoin may get updated (CBDC), the original is never going to go away - as there are way too many old bones about.

 

No different to comparing notes with a consigliere - same business issues; just different approaches.

Everybody learns from each other  :D

 

SD

 

[wachtwoord]

 

Very good stuff in this blogpost.

Thanks for posting.

 

SD

 

You're welcome.

 

@DeepSouth can you understand you're a masochist from my point of view? Anyway, let's just all vote with our wallets and things will work out at some point :)

 

I honestly don't understand your point of view. I'd say the empirical end result of your policy desires leads to decade long depressions and wild and violent swings in inflation and deflation. It's not masochism to desire an entity with the power to smooth out economic cycles and encourage growth. The federal reserve is one of the few things the US government gets mostly right. If you're terrified of your savings being withered away by low single digit inflation but don't want principal risk for your savings buy TIPS.

 

I own bitcoin because I think the risk/reward is fair from here even though I think most bullish arguments for bitcoin are very stupid.

 

The policy of the last ~120 years led to huge bubbles and (long! 20+ years at times) subsequent recesions while an organic market won't have recesions lasting longer than a few years. I concider loving that ewuivalent with loving pain.

 

On top of that an organic market rewards its participants more fairly in the sense that good decisions lead to financial reward while the current system rewards having the right contacts at the policy maker for the most part.

[hobbit]

 

Very good stuff in this blogpost.

Thanks for posting.

 

SD

 

You're welcome.

 

@DeepSouth can you understand you're a masochist from my point of view? Anyway, let's just all vote with our wallets and things will work out at some point :)

 

I honestly don't understand your point of view. I'd say the empirical end result of your policy desires leads to decade long depressions and wild and violent swings in inflation and deflation. It's not masochism to desire an entity with the power to smooth out economic cycles and encourage growth. The federal reserve is one of the few things the US government gets mostly right. If you're terrified of your savings being withered away by low single digit inflation but don't want principal risk for your savings buy TIPS.

 

I own bitcoin because I think the risk/reward is fair from here even though I think most bullish arguments for bitcoin are very stupid.

 

The policy of the last ~120 years led to huge bubbles and (long! 20+ years at times) subsequent recesions while an organic market won't have recesions lasting longer than a few years. I concider loving that ewuivalent with loving pain.

 

On top of that an organic market rewards its participants more fairly in the sense that good decisions lead to financial reward while the current system rewards having the right contacts at the policy maker for the most part.

 

even though I disagree with you completely, I think its beyond the point right now since bitcoin core has a zero chance of being a viable currency due to technical limitations. On top of that bitcoin's inability to replace gold gives it a total value of 0. Good luck

[LongHaul]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

[JRM]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

You hold it and wait for the greater fool to come along.

[Spekulatius]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

A guy in a basement will create a new one  a couple days later.

 

If you think about it, mining for gold isn’t very productive either, that’s one reason why the gold standard isn’t really feasible. It makes no sense to couple wealth with the amount of gold that can be mined, or just as much sense than mining for a artificial limited number of crypto keys.

 

It’s quite easy to create a new crypto currency, much easier than finding and building a new gold mine though.

[Jurgis]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

That's why you should buy all cryptokitties instead. Then you have the greatest cryptop.... kitty harem in the world!  8)

[SharperDingaan]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

I use my bribe, extortion, AML/ATF, and despot money to buy the untraceable token; then find a willing banker to make a collateral backed loan to a number of little old ladies. Who withdraw the money in cash to pay for a trip somewhere - creating untraceable wealth assembly, and near to untraceable distribution ;)

 

SD

 

[rkbabang]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

 

That’s like saying you are going to buy up all the gold in the world for it’s current market cap. Do you know what would happen to the price if you tried?  You’d send the market cap of crypto into the 100s of trillions. And once you did own all the gold or all the crypto the only thing you could do is sell/spend it for a lot less then you bought it for. Unless you like starring at your blockchain or fondling your cube.

[John Hjorth]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

I use my bribe, extortion, AML/ATF, and despot money to buy the untraceable token; then find a willing banker to make a collateral backed loan to a number of little old ladies. Who withdraw the money in cash to pay for a trip somewhere - creating untraceable wealth assembly, and near to untraceable distribution ;)

 

SD

 

lol. I have always liked your posts here on CoBF, SharperDingaan.

 

First time, you got me really puzzled was when you were playing the dice with Deutsche Bank. And now Bitcoin. However, I must say, that I do not any longer believe, that you have devoted your [full] time and energy to the rollout of blockchain worldwide.

[SharperDingaan]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

I use my bribe, extortion, AML/ATF, and despot money to buy the untraceable token; then find a willing banker to make a collateral backed loan to a number of little old ladies. Who withdraw the money in cash to pay for a trip somewhere - creating untraceable wealth assembly, and near to untraceable distribution ;)

 

SD

 

lol. I have always liked your posts here on CoBF, SharperDingaan.

 

First time, you got me really puzzled was when you were playing the dice with Deutsche Bank. And now Bitcoin. However, I must say, that I do not any longer believe, that you have devoted your [full] time and energy to the rollout of blockchain worldwide.

 

Just an updated learning from interesting conversations of many years ago.

As they say - always try to learn from the very good.

 

SD

 

[SharperDingaan]

We sold the remaining 25% of our Bitcoin this morning.

A little under 3 token at an average price of USD 18,810. 

 

The sale was to capture the run-up from the CME opening for business. 

 

Our view is that there is little reason for a market maker to be long Bitcoin at anything near current levels. The holding can now be widely replicated through either futures or options with built in margin, a much lower regulatory capital requirement, and perhaps even a lower carry cost as well. RAROC favors investment via derivatives - not via a long position in Bitcoin.

 

The presence of CME/Cboe derivatives has now made Bitcoin investment 'scaleable'. Institutions can now trade in/out, with liquidity, without materially impacting the price of Bitcoin itself. The result is that the only natural buyers of Bitcoin are now 1) those that actually need it, and 2) investors who can't use a derivative.

 

To get USD18,000+/Bitcoin, existing owners have to hold back their Bitcoin in anticipation of higher prices - much less likely now.

But any small increase in supply will rapidly accelerate as price starts collapsing; with circuit breakers and global trading actually helping the process by damning up prospective sales as word gets out around the world. Global waves of selling feeding a brush fire until the fuel eventually burns out - is a harsh but desirable outcome, and the earlier it is - the better for everyone.

 

At USD5,000+/Bitcoin, it's much easier for a market maker to justify holding a few Bitcoin directly - but until then; the market maker has to justify that high price/high maintenance holding daily, to an increasingly nervous senior management. Career risk suggests that there are real limits as to how long this can go on for.

 

If we're right, we do very well. If we're wrong, we don't think we're giving up much.

We live in interesting times.

 

SD

 

     

[LongHaul]

So if I buy up all the cryptocurrency in the world for say $500b then what do get out of them?  Nothing.

 

A guy in a basement will create a new one  a couple days later.

 

If you think about it, mining for gold isn’t very productive either, that’s one reason why the gold standard isn’t really feasible. It makes no sense to couple wealth with the amount of gold that can be mined, or just as much sense than mining for a artificial limited number of crypto keys.

 

It’s quite easy to create a new crypto currency, much easier than finding and building a new gold mine though.

 

Very true about creating newer coins (and possibly better ones)

 

Funny kitty comment Jurgis!

[mattee2264]

 

SharperDingaam not sure I fully understand your argument.

 

  If the only natural buyers remain retail investors without access to derivatives then the status quo is unchanged and so long as there are more people wanting to buy than there are people wanting to sell then the price will go up even if some existing owners decide to cash in. Of course this dynamic works in reverse and a rush to the exits en masse would be a scary thing with or without derivatives although derivatives can of course magnify things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

 

SharperDingaam not sure I fully understand your argument.

 

  If the only natural buyers remain retail investors without access to derivatives then the status quo is unchanged and so long as there are more people wanting to buy than there are people wanting to sell then the price will go up even if some existing owners decide to cash in. Of course this dynamic works in reverse and a rush to the exits en masse would be a scary thing with or without derivatives although derivatives can of course magnify things.

 

 

The Cboe brought in a lot of one-time institutional demand; paying up for the underlying Bitcoin, & financing it in-house, with a short term acceptance of the adverse risk capital impacts. With the Cboe/CME open it is now much more practical, and way more efficient on risk capital, to hold the Bitcoin via derivative - which has created a pool of sophisticated, and natural sellers of underlying Bitcoin (comprised mostly of those initial Cboe opening related purchases).

 

Joe Public has been a manic buyer, but for the most part has to put up cash to buy a Bitcoin. Credit isn't as easy for Joe, we know Joe hasn't been prudent, and that there are a lot fewer Joe's who can afford Bitcoin at 18,000, than there are when Bitcoin is at 5,000. It's basic Econ 101 that as price goes up, demand goes down. The underworld is the only natural buyer of Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin is essentially a non-issue relative to its other benefits (long term view).

 

Point is that there are few Joe's remaining, & a lot of sophisticated sellers piling up. We also have CB's raising rates - which implies that 'moral hazard' is back in play, and that CB's will drag their feet putting out a fire. It isn't looking good for Joe; and if we can see this - the clock has to be ticking ...

 

....  it will also take very little selling to start an avalanche.

 

SD

 

     

 

[mattee2264]

 

  The first paragraph lost me. I thought the futures exchange is cash settled so why would that bring any institutional demand? I thought it is just a medium to bet on the price via derivative contracts.

 

Can't you buy fractions of bitcoins on these coin exchanges? And I think some people are using their credit cards to buy. And you can get personal loans at very cheap interest rates.  And while bitcoin has been very popular with the younger generations the price rise and media attention is probably drawing in older and wealthier retail investors wanting a piece of the action. And as we know in financial markets people love to buy high and sell low.

 

And I think a lot of hedge funds have been getting on board because it is the hottest thing in town and they arent as constrained in what they do so lack of regulation isnt such a big deal for them. Although I guess they could flip if they figured the easier money was made shorting.

 

But is your prediction that these more recent entrants will use the futures exchanges to start a "little short" or simply sell the big blocks they've amassed sending the market into freefall?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Frankly I don't think the technology element is important enough to matter at this stage of the game. It's simply too complex and I'd gander 90% of the people buying this don't have much of an idea how it works.

 

Otherwise, an exercise I have typically found helpful when evaluating something is looking to build a case contrary to the consensus. Consensus is that this is obviously a bubble and therefor, a short(if one is able to). However, I've come up with quite the list of things that to me would indicate this can and will go on for quite a while.

 

-Obviously, consensus is negative

-Is it really much different than something like gold? Many people investing in gold do not actually own physical gold. And gold itself is essentially just a shiny pebble. It's use is being a store of value. In that sense, to me, it is not much different than BTC except for the fact that you can make jewelry out of it. Than again I've never been a huge fan of gold so maybe I'm biased.

-while it isnt "hard" to buy it, it is still supposedly a bit restricted in terms of amounts the newer BTC buyer can purchase at first.

-you can buy it with credit cards readily available to the poorest of retail investors

-the "major rally" really has only encompassed the past couple months. Maybe you could say the past year, tops. It really hasnt been that long.

-Hardly everyone and their mother is rich from BTC. My understanding from studying most bubbles is that many people typically get rich, at least on paper before losing it all

-no institutional investments

-barely any acceptance from the big financial institutions(although this seems to be changing)

-Such an obvious short that IMO we are seeing the next step of the bubble, mechanisms that allow for one to express a short position; the setup for what could be a massive short squeeze. Institutions have gotten this market sooo wrong(TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, heck even the SPY) it seems to me almost a given they will get their asses kicked with BTC before it implodes

-How do you define an IV? Its totally ambiguous, just like many of the things that tend to make insane moves. There is no possible way to set a "value" parameter on this. Thus, any price can be justified.

 

 

Then I look at what stops it, and... maybe government intervention or a major concentrated holder dumping? That's really about it. As any value investor knows, valuation alone is not a reason to short something, and at this stage in the game, thats the only case

[Libs]

Frankly I don't think the technology element is important enough to matter at this stage of the game. It's simply too complex and I'd gander 90% of the people buying this don't have much of an idea how it works.

 

Otherwise, an exercise I have typically found helpful when evaluating something is looking to build a case contrary to the consensus. Consensus is that this is obviously a bubble and therefor, a short(if one is able to). However, I've come up with quite the list of things that to me would indicate this can and will go on for quite a while.

 

-Obviously, consensus is negative

-Is it really much different than something like gold? Many people investing in gold do not actually own physical gold. And gold itself is essentially just a shiny pebble. It's use is being a store of value. In that sense, to me, it is not much different than BTC except for the fact that you can make jewelry out of it. Than again I've never been a huge fan of gold so maybe I'm biased.

-while it isnt "hard" to buy it, it is still supposedly a bit restricted in terms of amounts the newer BTC buyer can purchase at first.

-you can buy it with credit cards readily available to the poorest of retail investors

-the "major rally" really has only encompassed the past couple months. Maybe you could say the past year, tops. It really hasnt been that long.

-Hardly everyone and their mother is rich from BTC. My understanding from studying most bubbles is that many people typically get rich, at least on paper before losing it all

-no institutional investments

-barely any acceptance from the big financial institutions(although this seems to be changing)

-Such an obvious short that IMO we are seeing the next step of the bubble, mechanisms that allow for one to express a short position; the setup for what could be a massive short squeeze. Institutions have gotten this market sooo wrong(TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, heck even the SPY) it seems to me almost a given they will get their asses kicked with BTC before it implodes

-How do you define an IV? Its totally ambiguous, just like many of the things that tend to make insane moves. There is no possible way to set a "value" parameter on this. Thus, any price can be justified.

 

 

Then I look at what stops it, and... maybe government intervention or a major concentrated holder dumping? That's really about it. As any value investor knows, valuation alone is not a reason to short something, and at this stage in the game, thats the only case

 

 

Nice post.

 

I would add, I think there's a lot of over-thinking going on in this thread, with all due respect. I think there's a real chance Bitcoin has staying power ( periodic plunges aside). 

 

It could be as simple as this:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/bitcoin-boom-technology-trust.html?_r=0

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

Frankly I don't think the technology element is important enough to matter at this stage of the game. It's simply too complex and I'd gander 90% of the people buying this don't have much of an idea how it works.

 

Otherwise, an exercise I have typically found helpful when evaluating something is looking to build a case contrary to the consensus. Consensus is that this is obviously a bubble and therefor, a short(if one is able to). However, I've come up with quite the list of things that to me would indicate this can and will go on for quite a while.

 

-Obviously, consensus is negative

-Is it really much different than something like gold? Many people investing in gold do not actually own physical gold. And gold itself is essentially just a shiny pebble. It's use is being a store of value. In that sense, to me, it is not much different than BTC except for the fact that you can make jewelry out of it. Than again I've never been a huge fan of gold so maybe I'm biased.

-while it isnt "hard" to buy it, it is still supposedly a bit restricted in terms of amounts the newer BTC buyer can purchase at first.

-you can buy it with credit cards readily available to the poorest of retail investors

-the "major rally" really has only encompassed the past couple months. Maybe you could say the past year, tops. It really hasnt been that long.

-Hardly everyone and their mother is rich from BTC. My understanding from studying most bubbles is that many people typically get rich, at least on paper before losing it all

-no institutional investments

-barely any acceptance from the big financial institutions(although this seems to be changing)

-Such an obvious short that IMO we are seeing the next step of the bubble, mechanisms that allow for one to express a short position; the setup for what could be a massive short squeeze. Institutions have gotten this market sooo wrong(TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, heck even the SPY) it seems to me almost a given they will get their asses kicked with BTC before it implodes

-How do you define an IV? Its totally ambiguous, just like many of the things that tend to make insane moves. There is no possible way to set a "value" parameter on this. Thus, any price can be justified.

 

 

Then I look at what stops it, and... maybe government intervention or a major concentrated holder dumping? That's really about it. As any value investor knows, valuation alone is not a reason to short something, and at this stage in the game, thats the only case

 

 

Nice post.

 

I would add, I think there's a lot of over-thinking going on in this thread, with all due respect. I think there's a real chance Bitcoin has staying power ( periodic plunges aside). 

 

It could be as simple as this:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/bitcoin-boom-technology-trust.html?_r=0

 

 

Thank you for posting this.  I think the author nailed it. Right down to his last statement saying that Bitcoin could be the Netscape of this generation.  In the end it might not be Bitcoin itself that survives, but something out of this class of technology (or its descendants) is going to change the world, of that I'm sure.

 

[SharperDingaan]

 

The first paragraph lost me. I thought the futures exchange is cash settled so why would that bring any institutional demand? I thought it is just a medium to bet on the price via derivative contracts.

 

Cboe/CME are deeper & more liquid markets, only require a margin contribution, & are regulated - coin exchanges are not. If you want institutional demand, you have to create a 'real' market - not a 'backstreet' one.

 

Can't you buy fractions of bitcoins on these coin exchanges? And I think some people are using their credit cards to buy. And you can get personal loans at very cheap interest rates.  And while bitcoin has been very popular with the younger generations the price rise and media attention is probably drawing in older and wealthier retail investors wanting a piece of the action. And as we know in financial markets people love to buy high and sell low.

 

The higher the price you less you buy, and the less everyone else buys as well - whole or partial token.

 

And I think a lot of hedge funds have been getting on board because it is the hottest thing in town and they arent as constrained in what they do so lack of regulation isnt such a big deal for them. Although I guess they could flip if they figured the easier money was made shorting.

 

A HF holding Bitcoin needs somebody to dump their token onto (at 100 c on the $), when they are trying to exit. A HF holding a derivative just needs somebody to put up margin (at 45-55 c on the $) on the contract that is taking them out. Way easier to find a fool, when there are less $ required.

 

But is your prediction that these more recent entrants will use the futures exchanges to start a "little short" or simply sell the big blocks they've amassed sending the market into freefall?

 

Most would assume that it will start with margin calls on retail investors in China. As soon as the % drop looks like it will force mass retail selling - mining syndicates (70% are in China) & HF's start to dump.

 

 

The design of CBDC's suggests that the IV of a digital currency should be pretty much at parity with its fiat equivalent - roughly 1 CBDC = $1 fiat. Add maybe a 25-100% premium for anonymity and avoidance of transaction fees, and a Bitcoin is intrinsically worth more - how much more depends on the capital controls & overall level of corruption of the nation you're trading in (ie: worth a lot in a Zimbabwe, but not so much in a Canada). Obviously not what many want to hear.

 

SD

 

 

[rkbabang]

 

The first paragraph lost me. I thought the futures exchange is cash settled so why would that bring any institutional demand? I thought it is just a medium to bet on the price via derivative contracts.

 

Cboe/CME are deeper & more liquid markets, only require a margin contribution, & are regulated - coin exchanges are not. If you want institutional demand, you have to create a 'real' market - not a 'backstreet' one.

 

Can't you buy fractions of bitcoins on these coin exchanges? And I think some people are using their credit cards to buy. And you can get personal loans at very cheap interest rates.  And while bitcoin has been very popular with the younger generations the price rise and media attention is probably drawing in older and wealthier retail investors wanting a piece of the action. And as we know in financial markets people love to buy high and sell low.

 

The higher the price you less you buy, and the less everyone else buys as well - whole or partial token.

 

And I think a lot of hedge funds have been getting on board because it is the hottest thing in town and they arent as constrained in what they do so lack of regulation isnt such a big deal for them. Although I guess they could flip if they figured the easier money was made shorting.

 

A HF holding Bitcoin needs somebody to dump their token onto (at 100 c on the $), when they are trying to exit. A HF holding a derivative just needs somebody to put up margin (at 45-55 c on the $) on the contract that is taking them out. Way easier to find a fool, when there are less $ required.

 

But is your prediction that these more recent entrants will use the futures exchanges to start a "little short" or simply sell the big blocks they've amassed sending the market into freefall?

 

Most would assume that it will start with margin calls on retail investors in China. As soon as the % drop looks like it will force mass retail selling - mining syndicates (70% are in China) & HF's start to dump.

 

 

The design of CBDC's suggests that the IV of a digital currency should be pretty much at parity with its fiat equivalent - roughly 1 CBDC = $1 fiat. Add maybe a 25-100% premium for anonymity and avoidance of transaction fees, and a Bitcoin is intrinsically worth more - how much more depends on the capital controls & overall level of corruption of the nation you're trading in (ie: worth a lot in a Zimbabwe, but not so much in a Canada). Obviously not what many want to hear.

 

SD

 

SD I always appreciate your posts, but I think you are wrong on this. There is no need for CB to issue a blockchain currency.  Why would anyone use it?  You can already do cashless transactions with your nations currency.  There are credit cards and debit cards and apple pay, bank wires, etc...

 

The point of public blockchains is the trust issue.  It is that you don't have to trust any CB or other institution.  A CB controlled blockchain is missing the entire point all together.  There is no value in doing it at all.  Sure a country could set this up and require people to use it, but that wouldn't diminish the value of true cryptocurrencies in any way, because that is really nothing truly different than the situation we are already in today.

 

[SharperDingaan]

We'll have to agree to disagree. It is very much in the interests of a CB to have a interchangeable paper/digital dollar.

And as soon as you have a digital dollar you also have a zero cost payment system, and it is that - that makes the cards obsolete. Hard to charge a fee to transact when you can easily do it for free.

 

Notable, is that the Bitcoin 'reversal' also appears to be starting ....

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/bitcoin-plunges-dollar1000-in-less-than-an-hour/ar-BBH2QSu?li=AAacUQk&ocid=spartandhp

 

SD

 

[JayGatsby]

This has probably been answered in one of the prior pages, so apologies for the redundancy, but can someone explain this to me? http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42409815

 

Mechanically how does someone "steal" crypto, or similarly, how does someone "lose" crypto? This will show how awful my understanding of this stuff is, but if there is a distributed ledger doesn't that track ownership of the asset? If I own a share of BRK through Interactive Brokers, somewhere they have a ledger that has a share of BRK in my name and BRK (or NYSE) has a ledger with a share in IB's name. I assume there's backups made of those ledgers so if someone hacked into IB it would be difficult for them to change IB's ledger from my name to their name. I was thinking the benefit of crypto was that there's another layer of protection because that ledger is now distributed to millions of computers... making it impossible for someone to hack in and change the ledger?

[SharperDingaan]

We'll have to agree to disagree. It is very much in the interests of a CB to have a interchangeable paper/digital dollar.

And as soon as you have a digital dollar you also have a zero cost payment system, and it is that - that makes the cards obsolete. Hard to charge a fee to transact when you can easily do it for free.

 

Notable, is that the Bitcoin 'reversal' also appears to be starting ....

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/bitcoin-plunges-dollar1000-in-less-than-an-hour/ar-BBH2QSu?li=AAacUQk&ocid=spartandhp

 

SD

 

 

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN1EE02J-OCABS

 

Down 20% intraday before eventually closing down 4.5% on the day, & suggestions that some of the punters are exiting ……

“However, for Japanese retail investors who are estimated to account for 30 to 50 percent of bitcoin trade worldwide, a more worrying warning may have come from a Japanese day trader guru known as Cis. The individual trader, who claims to own 21 billion yen ($186 million) in assets, tweeted over the last 24 hours that he had sold cryptocurrencies.”

 

Maybe Makoto reads this board? ….

“The listing of two bitcoin futures makes it easier for institutional players to trade bitcoins. Futures also enable players to go short on bitcoins, which was difficult without liquid futures,” said Makoto Sakuma, researcher at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo.

 

SD