Packer16 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 I like TSQ but I have a less than glowing impression of Oaktree given what happened at AIQ. They acted like a typical PE firm not a minority shareholder friendly partner. Although IMO Oaktree has taken advantage of minority shareholders, I would not count on Oaktree to look out for the minorities if their interest is different than the minority shareholders interest. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDaruma Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Hi Packer, Currently working on TSQ, and I was wondering how you think about the obsolescence risk for radio/TSQ? I don't think >10year old cars will be able to become WiFi ready overnight but I think the general perception is that traditional radio will be taken over by steaming. I know you are well aware of obsolescence risk for the companies you own so I was wondering how you think about this one. Also, is there any moat on the business other than local monopoly? Thanks, RD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Packer - wanted your opinion on SBGI (Sinclair) as well as GNCMA/ALSK thanks! shalab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 As for radio obsolescence, I think radio will evolve with the radio companies using the new technologies (streaming) given enough time to adapt. I think most of the radio firms have done this. As to whether folks want their own stream or someone to curate the stream like radio does toady depends upon taste. I think there is room for both and although custom streaming may be good of awhile for some I think the variety of curation also has its appeal. As to wifi in cars, I think this will work in cities but not in suburban and country areas where radio is currently the strongest. I still like the TV broadcasters at these levels. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyPuppy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Packer- I made a separate thread in the General Discussikn section but would be helpful to get your direct feedback as I know you were looking into Korean prefs over the past few years. My understanding is Fidelity was the last brokerage in the states to allow purchase of direct Korean listed securities - I talked to a rep and he seemed pretty informed on the topic and told me the SEC shut down the "loophole" they were using 6-7 months ago. Are you still involved w these and have you found a way of purchasing directly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is unfortunate. I still hold the preferreds that I think are cheap. I have gained exposure to preferreds through the fund I run Bonhoeffer which has access to Korea via the broker we use. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is unfortunate. I still hold the preferreds that I think are cheap. I have gained exposure to preferreds through the fund I run Bonhoeffer which has access to Korea via the broker we use. Packer What broker do you guys use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The broker is Maxim but the minimum commission is pretty high for a small portfolio. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyPuppy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Thanks for the reply - it is too bad as there are simply obvious mispricings on GARPy type businesses in SK. Suppose the difficulty in even having access to the market accounts for a small portion of the wide discounts. Thinking about buying the Weiss Korea Opportunity Fund which trades at a slight discount to NAV (likely ~= NAV once accounting for PM fees) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDaruma Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Hi Packer, I just finished reading Maritime Economics, which you recommended at MOI Summit 2017. Are there any books you recommend for other industries? Best, RD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormR Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 The Bonhoeffer Fund (Sorry for the paywall.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhdousa Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hey Packer - Someone on Reddit is curious about your background (or at least the speculation is that this is about you)! -M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Hi Packer, What do you think about Entercom Communications and other radio stocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I still like the radio stocks. The Entercom deal is good as long as the acquisition does not dilute the sports/news talk culture of their existing stations. This will gain scale but in these firms you need to careful that you don’t create syndicated vs. customized networks which hurt the model in the long term. I still like TSQ & SALM for their tight communities. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mondegreen Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Hi Packer, Back to the topic of investing in South Korea again (sorry), are you aware of any reason not to open accounts directly with South Korean brokers? I have found two with English websites so far and commissions seem very reasonable: NH Investment & Securities https://www.nhqv.com/eng/index.html Samsung Securities https://english.samsungpop.com/index.jsp Am I missing something obvious? Thanks very much for doing this, Mondegreen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 No reason you cannot. The constraint I had was I was using IRA money that Korean firms could not facilitate. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorky Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Hey Packer, i would like to know, how you determine how much something is worth to you ?! I know that you cant precisely determine the intrinsic value of a business, its more a range of value. But lets say, how much you would pay for a business, that has FCF/Owners Earnings of 1000$ per year during the rest of his life (no growth, but no decline also). If you cant answer the question for yourself, what more and which Information do you Need for the answer? Thanks a lot :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 You would need to know the interest rate and life expectancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
savant Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Hi Packer - given your significant and global exposure to the telecom / cable space I'm wondering if you have every looked at indian listed Tata Communications. Currently trades at 8x EBITDA post spin-off of its real estate assets. ~32% of the revenues comes from traditional voice business which has been declining and has a margin of 6% and the remaining from data business which has runs at EBITDA margins of 20-21% with revenue CAGR of 15% over the past 5 years. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 In terms of what a business or security is worth to me, it is the same as it would be to others (except for some tax attributes) & thus the price. The value of business is the cash flows it can return to me and thus the value is equal cash flow/discount rate. The discount rate varies depending upon the variability of the cash flow. If it is as consistent as a bond it can be the treasury rate and alot higher if it is uncertain, I will take a look at Tata. Thanks. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorky Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Thank you for your answer. So 10-15% is an appropriate discount rate in your eyes for a relative stable small cap business with cyclical cash flows ?! Would you prefer 10 or go more conservative and take 15 ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The discount rate depends upon the business you are talking about, whether it is levered & other company specific risk associated with cash flows (like key man risk). Also if it is a private business there may be a discount for lack of marketability if you are purchasing a minority interest in the business. You can PM with the details & I can provide you some further guidance if you do not want to disclose the details here. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyPuppy Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Quick question Packer- notice you invest heavily in international stocks. How do you think about currency exposure impacting your investment returns? I'm always faced with the challenge of either 1) exposing myself to currency volatility (which I have no opinion on and is generally completely removed from the businesses fundamentals) or 2) locking up capital to hedge out currency volatility (dampens returns i.e. capital opportunity cost). Would very much appreciate any thoughts on your framework for thinking about currency risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Packer, I think you might still be invested in Gray... Any ideas about why we've still had no announcement of retransmission renewals for the remaining "big" two deals that were referred to as already being delayed on the Q4 call and expected to be completed within a week or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 As to currency risk, I include any possible depreciation risk in my estimate of value (reduce it by expected depreciation for currencies like the SA rand). For more stable currencies I do not make any adjustment. To determine stability I look at changes in currency since 2000. I still am invested in Grey & I have no more information than anyone else on re-trans deals. These guys have typically made good deals. Maybe the uncertainty here is an explanation for recent price decline. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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