Myth465 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey Parker which Canadian O&G stock did you guy. I am building a basket there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It was not Canadian it was Russian. I guess I have been watching too much of Jim Rogers who turned positive on Russia last year. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PJM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 packer emeco Looks really interesting. a lot of fear about this Company. very depressed Price. trades under Liquidation value. i like it There is a good write up on EMECO on alphavulture blog http://alphavulture.com/2013/11/20/emeco-holdings-a-net-net-in-disguise/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Packer, I took some time yesterday to go through this thread and want to say thanks for the time you already put in to answer everyone's questions. What struck me the most is that you mention your DD is just around 10 hours, however, when you open/discuss an idea you are very able to answer a wide variety/range of questions without a lot of time in between. I think this is very very impressive, to say the least. Would you consider the ability to do that kind of DD in just 10 hours to be a result from your year long experience in the markets? How drastically would you say your framework has improved over the years? Or would you relate it to above average intelligence? Or a combination of both? I wish I could form investment ideas in around 10 hours! Also another question, how often do you look at the fixed income side for ideas? For instance, I do not hold a position in Intralot equity, but their bonds look very interesting from a "we're a greek company so we have to pay a high coupon, although greek revenue is just 5%" kind of perspective. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Experience is cumulative in investments and most of the ideas are either good ideas others have (FIATY, Awilco, CIDM,GM, FRE/FNM Pfds, AIQ) or extensions of models in similar industries I have studied before (LIN, GNMCA, TI, Intralot). I also like to focus on recurring revenue models of media (TV/radio), telcos/cable, leasing cos and gaming equipment/operations companies. I have gone into other areas when I have found bargains (autos and O&G). I am an average guy who has fun with investments and uses a value lens to observe the market. I look at the fixed income side to help me with my equity selection. Since most of the firms I like have debt, I use the market value of the debt to tell me if I am buying into a dangerous situation. I like the situation that Intralot is in now (cheap equity and debt selling for above par). I also like to see the debt prices increase as this typically tells you the creditworthiness is increasing. As to investing in the debt, I typically do not. As many times the debt is callable and if the situation is getting better, the debt we debt will be re-fied with additional cash flow to the equity. This happened to the radio/TV stocks a few years ago and may happen with Intralot today if the economics improves. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 packer would be interesting to hear from you if you now already invest in emeco or not. and what be interesting to know, what you are thinking about Eurobank properties. thanks :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Haven't investing in Emeco yet. I have invested in Lukoil which is cheaper. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ok great thanks packer. iam Little bit fearful about russia. too much politics for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 packer do you think that the margin of safety in lukoil is so big, that it allows potential political conflicts and is still undervalued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That is why the price is cheap but listening to Jim Rogers and friend of mine who has friends over there convinced me to look into it. Also, Wertham Capital (a referral from the Manual of Ideas book) appears to bullish on Russia. The bear case is the same as it always has been but the bull case has some interesting new aspects - Putin releasing dissidents, joint gov't corporate JVs in R&D, repaired infrastructure and a huge need for Russia's resources from China. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Haven't investing in Emeco yet. I have invested in Lukoil which is cheaper. Packer Thanks Lukoil fits perfectly into my portfolio, next funds will be allocated into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That is why the price is cheap but listening to Jim Rogers and friend of mine who has friends over there convinced me to look into it. Also, Wertham Capital (a referral from the Manual of Ideas book) appears to bullish on Russia. The bear case is the same as it always has been but the bull case has some interesting new aspects - Putin releasing dissidents, joint gov't corporate JVs in R&D, repaired infrastructure and a huge need for Russia's resources from China. Packer thanks packer for the idea. i will look more closely into it. on the first glance russia makes me fearful and now i think exactly this could be the error and why it is maybe a good Investment. because i was too fearful. i remember that li lu also said lukoil is cheap in his last Video at the University. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Jim Rogers, Li Lu and Jim Grant all agree that Russian oil stocks are cheap... At the very least this looks interesting. Thanks for the heads up all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Jim Rogers, Li Lu and Jim Grant all agree that Russian oil stocks are cheap... At the very least this looks interesting. Thanks for the heads up all. When did Li Lu make those comments? any links? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Jim Rogers, Li Lu and Jim Grant all agree that Russian oil stocks are cheap... At the very least this looks interesting. Thanks for the heads up all. When did Li Lu make those comments? any links? Thanks. i think it was here fareastwarriors http://investingonsale.com/tag/li-lu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 packer what do you think about Chorus . A new zealand telecom. Trading at about 3x earnings, or 1x ebitda. They get into some trouble with the government. But apparantly they can borrow with zero interest from the government. They are rolling out a network that will cost about 1.7 billion NZ$ by 2019 I think. It looks really cheap based on the 2013 numbers, but didnt read up on anythign yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayfinkle Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yada a that looks interesting...I'm going to dig in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Took a quick Look at Chrous. It is interesting that they are building out a fiber network in NZ. The overall EV/EBITDA is about 4x. However, the EBITDA is expected to continue to decline in FY2014. When the trend turns up I will be more interested. It appears the legacy pricing will be reduced and may cause more pressure on EBITDA until the fiber network growth is greater than legacy copper decline. One to keep an eye though. Thanks. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Jim Rogers, Li Lu and Jim Grant all agree that Russian oil stocks are cheap... At the very least this looks interesting. Thanks for the heads up all. When did Li Lu make those comments? any links? Thanks. i think it was here fareastwarriors http://investingonsale.com/tag/li-lu/ Well, it looks like he agreed Russian oil stocks were cheap in the 1990s. :) Says nothing about today. And even then, it says he sold them at a 90% discount to intrinsic value because he didn't feel adequately compensated for the geo-political risk. (Of course, that was Russia in the 1990s.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounder Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Took a quick Look at Chrous. It is interesting that they are building out a fiber network in NZ. The overall EV/EBITDA is about 4x. However, the EBITDA is expected to continue to decline in FY2014. When the trend turns up I will be more interested. It appears the legacy pricing will be reduced and may cause more pressure on EBITDA until the fiber network growth is greater than legacy copper decline. One to keep an eye though. Thanks. Packer Chorus owns all the copper wire lines in NZ and is also committed (by contract) to investing ~$3b in rolling out fibre across the country. Given it is essentially a monopoly the returns they are permitted to earn are regulated by the Commerce Commission (which is an independent body). Imho the key questions one needs to answer are (a) What returns will the commission let it earn in the future on its copper wire (b) if it can't earn enough on the copper to fund the fiber investment, how much capital will it need to raise, dilution, etc and © What returns will the commission let it earn on its $3b fiber investment after its all rolled out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 hi packer- thanks for all your posts. wondering if you're still long the $COF warrants? $COF seems to have advanced quite a bit. the high end of the fair value range for $COF to me seems to around $100 - but i could be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I sold the COF warrants to purchase Intralot. COF is near fair value and may get additional competition from P-to-P networks who can provide the same cash for a lower costs. Credit card rates are close to 20% and P-to-P rates are closer to 15%. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 hi packer- given gm dividend and warrants not having dividend protection (at least i don't believe so), wondering if you are you sticking with them, rotating into the common, or perhaps selling? thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 may I know how you reach this number $75 ? hi packer- given gm dividend and warrants not having dividend protection (at least i don't believe so), wondering if you are you sticking with them, rotating into the common, or perhaps selling? my take on the common is that it has upside to $75. thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 thx for the comment plato. i think my higher end of the fair value range was a bit overexuberant after looking at my calculations from awhile back. will take a look at it again shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now