DavidVY Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Cloud Peak Energy Bonds 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wknecht Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I added a little CACC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccentricInv Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I added a little CACC. I was actually going to ask you if you've bought more in this recent dip! Any idea what's causing the move? Is it just people (wrongly) reacting to how rising rates will impact their returns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirkomi Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The recent drop in CACC share prices were (I believe) because of several groups of shareholders suing the company. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/harwood-feffer-llp-announces-investigation-200500605.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/important-shareholder-alert-goldberg-law-234500227.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholder-notice-goldberg-law-pc-184300224.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glancy-prongay-murray-commences-investigation-213200434.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wknecht Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I added a little CACC. I was actually going to ask you if you've bought more in this recent dip! Any idea what's causing the move? Is it just people (wrongly) reacting to how rising rates will impact their returns? I think it's a combination of the disclosure of the New York AG subpoena, rates, spreads widening in the ABS market (raises cost of capital), slowly declining origination metrics (spread, mix), and additional headlines around subprime auto and auto loans being a bubble. Not necessarily in that order. (a) I think I've been conservative in my accounting for the first three items, (b) the loan metrics are cyclical and not too concerning yet, and © I think a bubble popping (if indeed there is one) is best case scenario for CACC because they have liquidity, are disciplined, and capital would leave the market. The legal matters should obviously be closely monitored and if they start looking like Ocwen or unexpected significant skeletons arise, folks should sell. I think the shareholder lawsuits are typical ambulance chasing so I'm not really worried about that. They may actually have some merit, but I doubt any outcome would be material. I think they may have a little merit because CACC received the subpoena 9/18 and didn't disclose it until the 10Q last Friday. I was a little surprised they didn't disclose it sooner. They must have thought it was not material. So folks that purchased between that period may be angry, given the market disagreed. I think these are the boxes a court may check. For long term shareholders it shouldn't really have made a difference. Because New York is always active and 10% of CACC's originations are in New York, so I don't think it should have been a surprise. If you bought and that caused you to sell (or refrain from buying), you may not have the right expectations going in and should refrain from buying anyway (possibly folks have Ocwen in mind). Hence, I was a little surprised by the market reaction. I doubt that's how the courts think though. I purchased during that period myself, would I have liked to purchase 8% lower than I did? Yes absolutely. Obviously do your own research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccentricInv Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Thanks wknecht. I figured it was a combination of those issues, but seems to be a little overdone in my opinion. If you look at the law firms that are representing the shareholders, they're definitely of the "ambulance chaser" types as you call them. In terms of longer term trends, how much does it scare you that they're willing to underwrite down to their WACC? Usually when I hear mgmt start making those types of comments I dump, but given their history during the last downturn, I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. Also I'm a little worried about their rising % of portfolio purchases; I'm hoping this isn't an indication they've saturated their TAM of dealers, and need to find other ways to grow. Hopefully a bubble bust will let them go deeper into each dealer relationship if not wider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 KMI Thanks, Lance What are your thoughts on KMI? Hi IC, I think it's a mess. Lots of debt and they're paying an awful lot to borrow. I think it's quite risky, but I like the space and KMI's assets. Added a bit more this morning. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I recently sold all my KMI holdings (at a loss). It could be a bargain at current prices, but I just came to the conclusion that I don't have a good understanding of the business, and it's out of my circle of competence. I admittedly had bought it largely for the dividend. It went up after I bought it, but I sat on it and ended up selling for a loss. I've largely decided to avoid companies that revolve around the price of a commodity (oil in this case) that is completely unpredictable. KMI is obviously quite different than other oil companies, but their earnings are still taking a big hit with the collapse of oil prices, and am not sure how to put a value on their pipeline vs their $44B of debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wknecht Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Thanks wknecht. I figured it was a combination of those issues, but seems to be a little overdone in my opinion. If you look at the law firms that are representing the shareholders, they're definitely of the "ambulance chaser" types as you call them. In terms of longer term trends, how much does it scare you that they're willing to underwrite down to their WACC? Usually when I hear mgmt start making those types of comments I dump, but given their history during the last downturn, I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. Also I'm a little worried about their rising % of portfolio purchases; I'm hoping this isn't an indication they've saturated their TAM of dealers, and need to find other ways to grow. Hopefully a bubble bust will let them go deeper into each dealer relationship if not wider. Their willingness to write down to WACC doesn't bother me too much. (a) It's economically rational behavior, which actually doesn't seem super common. Of course if they write there for a long period, we clearly are overpaying by buying at current prices. They've repurchased shares not much below current multiples which tells me that's not their baseline playbook. (b) I haven't done the math, but it seems hard to think that subprime credit as a whole's cost of capital (diversified as it is) could fall so low as to produce that result. © Things are cyclical, so it wouldn't happen forever supposing it did at all, because (d) subprime credit is hard to underwrite, so it's not just a lowest cost of capital takes all game (and the weak links eventually go broke). The purchase loan % is worth watching in combination with collection forecast backtests they report. It sounds to me like they tested the pricing pretty systematically so I'm again not too worried given their track record. Maybe I've drank the kool-aid though. I'm honestly less confident about the addressable market question. It just strikes me as a huge market and they're not that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Qualcomm 4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Picking away at some energy names. Just like Seth.... 13F Insights: Seth Klarman Says Goodbye To Deep Value NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Seth Klarman's Baupost Group is trading in deep value stocks for flawed commodity ones, or so it would seem. Unless, of course, you're one of those that believes commodities can be considered deep value. In which case, you probably shouldn't be reading this to begin with. Now to the fun - Klarman added 47% to his Cheniere Energy (LNG) position, which is still the fund's largest holding - making up 18% of the portfolio. It kept the Viasat (VSAT) position steady - 2nd largest - and added Alcoa (AA) to the portfolio ti make it the 3rd largest holding. With that - Klarman's exposure to the materials industry goes from nil last quarter to 14%. And Energy stocks still make up 39% of his portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Made an addition to my Altius position with accrued dividends in my account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Made an addition to my Altius position with accrued dividends in my account. Nice! I've been planning on adding the same when my puts on FCAU expire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intothebreach Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 SAVE - Spirit Airlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 LIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Notorious, will you share your elevator pitch for the LIF buy? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Notorious, will you share your elevator pitch for the LIF buy? Thanks. the company has a 15% stake in a pretty solid operation + 7% revenue royalty and 0.10/t commission on production. Seems like safer way to get iron ore exposure as long as the project doesn't shut down. dividend yield ~7%, no debt on balance sheet. solid production growth and cost reductions expected in the next 12 months. I think compared to most royalty co's this is a bit a cheaper http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LABRADOR_IRON_ORE_ROYALTY_CP/136730 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Bought more SAN yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc3 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I bought some NAVI stocks earlier today, has a good p/e and decent dividends, also the stock had dropped substantially in the last year making it affordable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feynmanresearch Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I bought some NAVI stocks earlier today, has a good p/e and decent dividends, also the stock had dropped substantially in the last year making it affordable. Interesting pick.Can you provide a brief, high-level thesis on the company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 KMI Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I bought some NAVI stocks earlier today, has a good p/e and decent dividends, also the stock had dropped substantially in the last year making it affordable. Interesting pick.Can you provide a brief, high-level thesis on the company? yes, why is its revenue going down? If it is cyclical, which signs are you seeing that indicate a turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Bought more SAN yesterday. Nice! I've been thinking about adding but opted for building a position in the Brazilian subsidiary again with the massive repurchase they're going to do and in hopes that SAN just buys the rest of it. Added more Altius today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwimmingNaked Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 David's Tea (DTEA). Built up a ~10% position in it. Think it's a potential triple over 2-3 years. May start a thread on it in investment ideas if people are interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 SwimmingNaked, The topic is already here : http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/std-(san)-banco-santander/ - Let's go there for further "talk". :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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