Spekulatius Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Bought CVE - the oil sand play. New CEO, FCF and deleveraging will unlock the value that the former management had thrown away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 In my opinion, most retail investors overestimate the quality of SKT assets. SKT has two very good shopping malls in Long Island, but also a lot of malls that are of B- and C grade quality. The average sales/sqft of $380 (which has been stagnant for a couple of years ) is the telltale sign. I am more of a Graham type investor i don‘t really care about quality. I buy things below liquidation value and only demand that liquidation value is stable or growing. Ideally you have a management team that is aware of that discount, sells assets at liq value and buys back stock. In case of SKT NAV is at 33-35$ depending on the caprate you use. (i would think that currently 6.5-7% is very fair for these assets) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BPCAP Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not sure how SKT fits as a Graham stock. Quality does matter as it affects liquidation value. I see too many outlet malls as losing value by the day. Less consumer appeal. Lower quality leases. Too much debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not sure how SKT fits as a Graham stock. Quality does matter as it affects liquidation value. I see too many outlet malls as losing value by the day. Less consumer appeal. Lower quality leases. Too much debt. Tanger guided for flat NOI/AFFO for 2018, that is enough for me to conclude that the value is stable. Your opinion is the consensus and the reason i can buy at a discount. *EDIT* It is maybe not in the original "Graham" sense (Price to book) to buy REIT`s below NAV, but why not? Since real estate is at least as liquid as inventory and has a private market with a private market price i see no reason not to. With a large enough margin of safety this should work equally good. And if the company sells assets and buys its own stock it widens this margin further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not sure how SKT fits as a Graham stock. Quality does matter as it affects liquidation value. I see too many outlet malls as losing value by the day. Less consumer appeal. Lower quality leases. Too much debt. Tanger guided for flat NOI/AFFO for 2018, that is enough for me to conclude that the value is stable. Your opinion is the consensus and the reason i can buy at a discount. *EDIT* It is maybe not in the original "Graham" sense (Price to book) to buy REIT`s below NAV, but why not? Since real estate is at least as liquid as inventory and has a private market with a private market price i see no reason not to. With a large enough margin of safety this should work equally good. And if the company sells assets and buys its own stock it widens this margin further. NOI trends have been down and they had to keep their occupancy up by getting into a bunch of short term leases. This is not an indication of strength. If you look at liquidation value, I think KIM and SRG (which you also own, I think) are better plays and they also have better NOI trends. The outlet malls tenants compete price and choice and price sensitive customers tend to go more and more online for bargains. Their outlets are very heavily into clothing, which helps regarding to online competition, but also gets less wallet share over time. I think KIM and SRG have better opportunities to develop their existing retail for high returns nd trade equally cheap. I have decided to exit this sector except a LT microcap holding, because I believe these are mostly melting ice cube cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 If you have a 30% allocation to retail REIT’s, would you call that a Graham type portfolio or a concentrated sector bet? I think it is an easy trap to fall into to convince yourself you are doing the first while actually doing the second. Not implying you do so :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 If you have a 30% allocation to retail REIT’s, would you call that a Graham type portfolio or a concentrated sector bet? I think it is an easy trap to fall into to convince yourself you are doing the first while actually doing the second. Not implying you do so :) Maybe you are right, but thinking about it, isn`t it possible that this is both at the same time? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 NOI trends have been down and they had to keep their occupancy up by getting into a bunch of short term leases. This is not an indication of strength. If you look at liquidation value, I think KIM and SRG (which you also own, I think) are better plays and they also have better NOI trends. The outlet malls tenants compete price and choice and price sensitive customers tend to go more and more online for bargains. Their outlets are very heavily into clothing, which helps regarding to online competition, but also gets less wallet share over time. I think KIM and SRG have better opportunities to develop their existing retail for high returns nd trade equally cheap. I have decided to exit this sector except a LT microcap holding, because I believe these are mostly melting ice cube cases. Thanks. I will look into KIM, it looks like i was too lazy to do that until now. I have nothing against melting ice cubes, i learned with netnets that these are sometimes the best investments. *EDIT* If i have the numbers correct than KIM trades just at a discount of 30% to NAV if i use the same caprate as for SKT and KIM has a higher debt/NOI ratio. SKT and SRC have to go up by 50% to reach fair value/NAV. Btw. my position sizing is 16% SRG, 10% SRC and 4% SKT, so i wouldn`t see SKT as my absolute favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I think retail is a tough business - and strangely enough , I even see softness in e-commerce retail. ALL retail, including e-commerce, seems to suffer from the same defects, namely very commoditized markets with just massive inventory and no distinctions. There's no loyalty online, offline, there is almost nowhere to hide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I think retail is a tough business - and strangely enough , I even see softness in e-commerce retail. ALL retail, including e-commerce, seems to suffer from the same defects, namely very commoditized markets with just massive inventory and no distinctions. There's no loyalty online, offline, there is almost nowhere to hide. I see it the same, but i also think that retail real estate is a different animal. If in doubt they can redevelop the properties to other uses. Look what SRG is doing with the old Sears boxes, at least if they own good locations. And i can`t imagine a world where everybody sits at home ordering stuff without going out. That will probably never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Yeah, get me some mobility as a service, so I don't have to park and get me some RFID automatic checkout so I don't have to wait in line to give you money to pay for my items and I could see it actually being pleasurable to shop/taking back share from online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Yeah, get me some mobility as a service, so I don't have to park and get me some RFID automatic checkout so I don't have to wait in line to give you money to pay for my items and I could see it actually being pleasurable to shop/taking back share from online. My understanding is that many traditional Asian department stores are dying and new malls are built as places for having fun/spending time/hanging out with friends instead of just purely "shopping." These malls seem to do rather well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BPCAP Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Asian malls are typically in dense cities, thus they have optionality (they are also loved for the air conditioning). Mall outlet malls are often on cheap land you have to drive far to get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjangal Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 WBA looks relatively cheap here. I know amazon threat etc, but it’s a consolidated industry so it’s hard to predict outcomes. Retail was easy to disrupt because of its fragmented nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 reduced SRG and SRC positions to 5% and sold TYO:7922 after a nice pop this morning. bought STOR, SPG, BRX, SOHO, EAT and more WSE:SOL. Invented new rules for position sizing: 3% position will be standard 5% only when the management is shareholder friendly >5% only when i find an NCAV stock far below net cash or a diversified holding company like BRK or MKL. >20% never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 ARNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartansaver Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NRIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharad Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 MO & BTI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Covered short call and short put on DERM with a small profit after all volatility was sucked out of the options. In hindsight it would have been better to just use a bear call spread to short it. But damn that vola looked so good, i had to short it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 It's interesting times ... - as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 "It's interesting times ... - as always!" In 2017, looked at a few IPOs (in order to discover and learn). Yes, interesting and...a lot of difficulty integrating the "narrative" into a profitable course. For perspective: https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2018/03/14/A-Familiar-if-Ominous-Sign-in-the-US-IPO-Market Apologies for the "ominious" title as the point of this post is not about predictive power. Still, this has a "late in the cycle" feel to it and that may explain (?) the lack of enthusiasm on this specific thread. I have to disclose that many IPOs with negative earnings are from the technology space and this is outside my reach (there may be homeruns in there). But I can reasonably value biotech and the bridge from the narrative to a profitable exit is really hard to visualize even if you feel that animal spirits are truly getting to work. Interesting times indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I was filled on orders for Charter and Liberty Sirius K today. There ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GME and MO Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Bought MO,WPP,XOM Covered shorts on HSCG,SPNS,TWLO,IRWD,WAB,RBA. shorted ZB futures with a tight stop above the daily high to protect some of my REIT/dividend portfolio against further increases in the long term interest rate Much more long now than at the start of the year, will keep it this way till the end of april where i will do my normal summer hedging with OTM put options on DAX. Learned a lot the last 6 months about shorting, maybe this helps me get better on the long side but shorting the way i did has increased my portfolio volatility a lot more than i thought, so i will reduce this part of the portfolio for now, even though i made a small profit doing it. But it was not very funny overall. (TWLO has gone up 50% in 3 months and has pretty much sucked up all my other short profits.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 HD, MO and MU Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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