What are you buying today?

[John Hjorth]

Added to LVMUY yesterday [bought in Paris as MC.PA].

[Fairfaxnut]

MTY.TO or MTYFF....looks as if the Algos overreacted  :o

[writser]

MTY.TO or MTYFF....looks as if the Algos overreacted  :o

 

If it goes down blame the algo's. If it goes up your analysis is great :P .

[DTEJD1997]

MTY.TO or MTYFF....looks as if the Algos overreacted  :o

 

If it goes down blame the algo's. If it goes up your analysis is great :P .

 

Could it be that MTY's business model is buying up smaller chains and "rolling up"?  In the past, that worked reasonably well, and they got some decent chains.  NOW, time has progressed and the easy fruit has been picked.  What remains are problems like Papa Murphys?  Thus MTY's long history of rolling up is coming to an end?

[Spekulatius]

I bumped up my WFC position on Friday. I used proceeds from sale of my FITB and cash. Worse case, I collect ever rising dividend checks. It’s now my largest bank position. I also bought a little CARS.

[sleepydragon]

Maybe WFC should buy citizens bank— the largest bank in MA! Just to get Eliz Warren to stop bashing WFC. I don’t see her bashing JPM nowaday

 

[boilermaker75]

I got put to on WFC at $47.30. I wrote some more puts, 45-strike May 10 expiration.

 

WFC is my largest bank holding ahead of BK and BAC. WFC is a very distant second to my largest holding BRKB.

[Spekulatius]

Bought some WRK ( paper packaging co). Selloff in this sector due to concerns over pricing pressure . We will see, some of these stocks have become cheap and the industry has consolidated a lot. Packaging is one of these sectors where rollups are actually fairly low risk and the rollup model seems to work.

 

Cardboard might like this stock :-)

[DooDiligence]

Added a little DVA in my tax advantaged account.

 

Hopefully the market isn't signaling the demise of the DMG UNH deal.

[LC]

Bought some VZ

[Spekulatius]

Bought a bit of PFIE the last few days. I am hoping that higher crude prices lighten up the flame for this stock . They produce burner controls for E&P’s primarily.

[tombgrt]

Bought a boatload of CRC LEAPS today. Painful to do but hopefully with a good return like last year. Basically crashed yesterday (and lost 10% days before) following a bill in California to restrict drilling, news that was already known on Tuesday. Purely sentimental selling if you ask me. Bill unlikely to go through. But even if it did, it would hardly be the end of CRC. Given that CRC is an option on brent prices already, you might as well leverage that leverage with options. Binary outcome most likely (either they survive and are a multibagger or they become a zero at some point) so much preferable about regular stock.

[bizaro86]

Bought a boatload of CRC LEAPS today. Painful to do but hopefully with a good return like last year. Basically crashed yesterday (and lost 10% days before) following a bill in California to restrict drilling, news that was already known on Tuesday. Purely sentimental selling if you ask me. Bill unlikely to go through. But even if it did, it would hardly be the end of CRC. Given that CRC is an option on brent prices already, you might as well leverage that leverage with options. Binary outcome most likely (either they survive and are a multibagger or they become a zero at some point) so much preferable about regular stock.

 

Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money.

[tombgrt]

Bought a boatload of CRC LEAPS today. Painful to do but hopefully with a good return like last year. Basically crashed yesterday (and lost 10% days before) following a bill in California to restrict drilling, news that was already known on Tuesday. Purely sentimental selling if you ask me. Bill unlikely to go through. But even if it did, it would hardly be the end of CRC. Given that CRC is an option on brent prices already, you might as well leverage that leverage with options. Binary outcome most likely (either they survive and are a multibagger or they become a zero at some point) so much preferable about regular stock.

 

Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money.

 

Yes, super expensive given volatility and nearly always are. :( But considering the leverage and upside potential it would be nuts if they were cheap obviously. When you know their net debt is around $5b vs market cap of $1b, you know the potential stock appreciation is huge. Consistent higher Brent prices simply balloon their CFs and reserves values and this is something the stock price will exponentially reflect.

 

Most are jan 2020 which of course are not technically LEAPS but should be more than long enough to capture a nice return. (If we don't see higher pricing in 2019, I'm not sure we would in 2020 either.) These 2019's I obviously sell first. Others are jan 2021. I've bought both ATM and OTM but generally prefer to buy them well OTM at strike $30-40 which is a realistic level as to not risk them expiring worthless and otherwise doesn't require a high cash outlay. These OTM options also actually act more as options of course vs deeply ITM options. ;) No use going for very high delta options for this stock anyway as the atraction to me is in the 'leverage times leverage component'. Also generally found tighter spreads in the OTM options, probably due to higher volumes. Sure, I could go for a call spread but I'm also fairly bullish on oil for the next 12 months so I'm not willing to bother.  :-X It's a highly speculative bet that paid off very well last year (various sold at 800%+ returns of those that I bought around a stock price of $15). You could say these options are now bought mainly with 'house money' as I can now buy these with last year's winnings. So obviously psychologically I'm more willing to swing for the fences. But to me it makes more sense than laying out a multiple of that capital to buy the stock itself.

 

Company looks cheaper today given current Buena Vista oil pricing, macro situation, extra JVs in place and small debt paydown they already had. They also have much less overhang from the hedges with more upside potential. + I don't see the bill getting far for a couple of reasons. CRC also has plenty of JV's with the state and they count on a great deal of tax revenue from them. Trump's administration was actually looking at expanding land permits for oil extraction so certainly some political headwinds on various levels of government as well. Not to mention gas prices would go ballistic if operations of CRC & co really got impacted in the next few years. Just some posturing by Newsom to please some of the voter base, IMO. So the sell off to me looks overdone and provided me with a decent opportunity to jump in. The announcement of more JVs could also be a great catalyst for the stock. Management is certainly making the right strategic steps. They simply got dealt a poor hand.

 

Hope this helps!

[bizaro86]

Super helpful, thanks very much!

[boilermaker75]

Wrote AMGN 170-strike, May 3rd expiration puts for $0.76 per share. Yes I know they report this evening.

[boilermaker75]

Wrote AMGN 170-strike, May 3rd expiration puts for $0.76 per share. Yes I know they report this evening.

 

Wrote some 170-strike May 17 expiration puts.

[Spekulatius]

Megacable MEGACPO.MX ( Mexican cable co.) and DWDP

[cameronfen]

Megacable MEGACPO.MX ( Mexican cable co.) and DWDP

 

would you elaborate on MEGACPO?  going through CHTR and Liberty complex has me interested in cable cos esperially in emerging markets. 

[Spekulatius]

Megacable MEGACPO.MX ( Mexican cable co.) and DWDP

 

would you elaborate on MEGACPO?  going through CHTR and Liberty complex has me interested in cable cos esperially in emerging markets.

 

The thesis is simple - this is like US cable 20 years ago. It’s cheap (~7x trailing EBITDA ) and has a long  growth trajectory. Also interesting is that it has virtually no net leverage (cash is almost equal to debt). The stock was a bit depressed after the release of the Q1 report (increased churn diente bad economy in Mexico), somI took a plunge and bought some this AM at the open.

http://inversionistas.megacable.com.mx/en/reportes.php

 

There Isa los a VIC writeup on this stock a while back (2017.). Biggest risk is macro and currency, imo.

[sleepydragon]

Started a new position in GM today ( 1.5% of my portfolio)

 

[John Hjorth]

Added today to BRK.B [partially with proceeds from NVO, ref. this post], BAM & SCHO.CPH.

[boilermaker75]

I wrote some WFC 48-strike May 17 puts.

[sleepydragon]

I wrote some WFC 48-strike May 17 puts.

 

Boilermaker, why you don’t short longer term put, say 1 year? The put premium will be taxed at long term capital gain and there is a higher chance it will expire worthless.

[zippy1]

I wrote some WFC 48-strike May 17 puts.

 

Boilermaker, why you don’t short longer term put, say 1 year? The put premium will be taxed at long term capital gain and there is a higher chance it will expire worthless.

The premium is higher if the date is very short? Also, if you are doing this in an IRA or 401K account, then the tax is not so much of a consideration?