What are you buying today?

[BG2008]

GRIF @35 and MSGN @14

 

I would be buying more GRIF if it wasn't for the large position size already.

[Gregmal]

GRIF @35 and MSGN @14

 

I would be buying more GRIF if it wasn't for the large position size already.

 

Yea while I don't think its got much of a catalyst I still kind of ask myself Who TF is selling at these prices? Its one thing to look at a stock and pass. Its another when you already own it because you have to at least peripherally be aware of what's going on. I mean, even on a super short term, trading based thesis, $35 is still where'd you'd be buying, not selling... got another 1250 today.

[Lance]

FXY and MSGN

 

Thanks

Lance

[BG2008]

GRIF @35 and MSGN @14

 

I would be buying more GRIF if it wasn't for the large position size already.

 

Yea while I don't think its got much of a catalyst I still kind of ask myself Who TF is selling at these prices? Its one thing to look at a stock and pass. Its another when you already own it because you have to at least peripherally be aware of what's going on. I mean, even on a super short term, trading based thesis, $35 is still where'd you'd be buying, not selling... got another 1250 today.

 

Gabelli has sold some recently.  I think he manages SMAs and when clients redeem, they tell him to sell out of the stock which he is always very reluctant to do.  That's why you see 40,000 shares sold from Gabelli.  I think Gabelli and the family reducing their stake is better for the long term because it will improve the liquidity and the bid/ask spread of the company.  Yes, there is no catalyst.  But when you have a NAV that's 90-100% higher than the current price, good things happen.  The same thing happened to HHC.   

[Ahab]

PM & MO. I think investors are wildly pessimistic about the future of tobacco. I'm a Gen Z and people still smoke aplenty.

[Lakesider]

Sold NXPI, bought some EAF.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

 

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

 

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

 

VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling:

 

1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!)

 

2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again.

 

Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market).

 

Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today.

[Gregmal]

Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

 

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

 

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

 

VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling:

 

1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!)

 

2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again.

 

Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market).

 

Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today.

 

Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT....

[SHDL]

The bond market is screaming so loudly all day that I cannot hear whatever it is that the stonk market is whispering.  :P

[Gregmal]

added a bit to HTL on the dip under $1

[SmallCap]

wrote some Puts on AR

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

 

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

 

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

 

VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling:

 

1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!)

 

2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again.

 

Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market).

 

Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today.

 

Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT....

 

Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge.

[Gregmal]

Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

 

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

 

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

 

VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling:

 

1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!)

 

2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again.

 

Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market).

 

Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today.

 

Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT....

 

Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge.

 

We'll see. It seems every time something recovers(be it the economic news, stock market, or whatever) Donny thinks he's got money in the bank to go wage war on someone...

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

 

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

 

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

 

VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling:

 

1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!)

 

2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again.

 

Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market).

 

Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today.

 

Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT....

 

Seems like I was wrong this time around. Closed the extra positions but continue to hold the core hedge.

 

We'll see. It seems every time something recovers(be it the economic news, stock market, or whatever) Donny thinks he's got money in the bank to go wage war on someone...

 

We'll see. I have a hard time deciphering politics, but if I had to guess, both sides are ready for a reprieve at this point and willing to take a little break from the tit-for-tat. I'm thinking the Chinese are refusing to escalate now because

 

1) They're trying to limit the immediate damage to their economy and draw this out over time

2) They're trying to delay when the damage occurs until election season to maximize the odds that Trump gets removed from office

 

Why escalate now if doing so in a month or two better achieves those goals?

 

Still holding the core hedge position just in-case, but wouldn't be surprised to see us take-off and approach the highs from here. Just glad I repurchased most of my covered calls at this point which means I can still benefit slightly from the upward volatility when it comes time to re-sell them.

[sleepydragon]

Chinese are sending tanks into HK. Obviously they don’t want two wars at the same time. As long as US do not interfere with their HK crack down, China will want to reach deal sooner, preferably before they crack down the demonstrations in HK before the 10/1 holiday. If they delay reaching a deal, it will only get more difficult as protests in HK continue to escalate.

 

[Gregmal]

Just snagged some more GRIF at 34.9, cuz why not

[Cardboard]

"They're trying to delay when the damage occurs until election season to maximize the odds that Trump gets removed from office"

 

I believe that this strategy could easily backfire with the bunch of "crazies" on the Democratic side to borrow the expression from Stanley Druckenmiller.

 

Trump is in a weak spot and they know it. Might as well sign an easier deal now.

 

Cardboard

[Gregmal]

Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

[SHDL]

Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

 

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever.  cc: @netflix

[DooDiligence]

Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

 

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever.  cc: @netflix

 

Done.

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

[SHDL]

Ive actually long believed the opinion put in play by some ex Obama fella yesterday or the day before...That Trump/China is the real collusion story. That Trump's given them a deal under the table and is now just timing the shit out of it so he has momentum going into the elections. If this were the case you'd see a trade deal announcement finalized in either Q4 or early Q1 so you have the economic data showing blowout figures in July, August, September, October.

 

My only hope is that this bizarre presidency one day inspires someone to write the best political thriller ever.  cc: @netflix

 

Done.

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N1R9W4X/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

 

I have probably become a bit too desensitized by everything to be blown away by anything short of an insanely over the top fiction piece, but thanks.  :)

[Lance]

MSG

 

Thanks

Lance

[no_free_lunch]

MO.  I think people should really look at this one.  Yes there are risks, but I have watched the tobacco industry have a target on it since I started investing 20 years ago.  They just push through it.  I am just not sure if MO or PM is the better pick but went with MO as it is cheaper.

[LC]

Short term you may see more pressure on PM/MO due to vaping:

 

https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20190826/as-vaping-injuries-grow-doctors-seek-answers

 

The adult from Illinois who died is among 193 potential cases in 22 states of people hospitalized for the lung injuries, the CDC said last week.

 

Doctors say they are seeing injuries ranging from severe inflammation -- also called pneumonitis -- to bleeding in the lungs. “Injuries varied, with most including inflammation in the lining of the airway and some even have bleeding in their lungs,” said Louella Amos, MD, a pediatric pulmonologist at Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, who has treated some of the patients involved.

 

No cause has yet been identified, but a common thread joins each of the patients: All of them vaped.

 

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

There is always something like this going on with these companies, it never ends.

 

In the short-term you are getting a 7.3% dividend, which is covered with no issues.

 

Maybe they shut down vaping or maybe there is some adjustment to make it safer.  If they shut it down, kids just start smoking again.  I don't know how it all plays out but I am telling you, they are always, always under attack.  They just keep making money in the meanwhile.

 

For me, it's more an ethical issue.  Do I really want to be investing in tobacco companies?  I actually struggle with that more than the investment merits (not that it's a perfect investment but I am comfortable with the risks).  In the very short-term I have overcome my ethical concerns.