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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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Sold more BERY $45 puts which means I am long the stock at $37.  Looking to turn around and buy some BERY commons as well with the put proceeds.

 

For Clarification, I have owned both Berry commons and the $45 puts when it was trading about $50.  I paid $1.45 for the puts and just sold a portion at $8.30.  I can elect to buy more shares or LEAPs or both.  I should just quit picking stock and start buying puts. 

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Cash.

 

Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more.

 

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+.

 

Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today.

 

 

Sold ~15% of the core put position today when VIX hit 20. Will probably let a bit more go if me move closer to 25, but still waiting for that elusive 30+ print on the VIX to signal panic to let the bulk of the position go.

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I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY

 

Can you comment at all on RYCEY?  Even with the pullback it doesn't seem that terribly cheap to me but I admit I don't understand the financials.

 

I look at RYCEY‘s valuation in terms of EV/ sales. It trades at around 1xEV/ sales, but once profitability is addressed, it should be able to get to 2x eventually. Now add done revenue growth to it, one can easily see more than a 2 bagger.

 

Bases on Current results, you are correct , Rolls Royce isn’t cheap at all. I am optimistic though, because there is just such a strong moat around this business and there is really only one competitor ( and Pratt& Whittey to some extend).

 

Likewise logic can be applied to GE, except I have more concerns about their accounting.

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Building  a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG.  Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip.

 

Curious if you have looked at Ardmore Shipping ASC at all?

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Building  a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG.  Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip.

 

Curious if you have looked at Ardmore Shipping ASC at all?

 

Only very briefly. I'm not done with my "deep dive" on shipping yet, so STNG and SALT are not big positions for me yet.  IIRC, ASC's product tanker fleet is about 6.5 years old on average and STNG's  is about 4.5 years old on average.  Since I think newer fuel efficient ships will have a big advantage over the older ships, it's the first thing I zoned in on.  I'll take a look at it and if it looks good, maybe do a basket approach.  What do you like about it?

 

SSW I started buying about 1.5 years ago. When Sokol became Chairman, I looked at it as a bet on the jockey, not the horse, but I think the way he's fixed the balance sheet and added flexibility in the financing could be a game changer.  Basel III made it  more unattractive (in required net capital)for banks to lend on ships, so I think a lot of financing is going to move towards private equity and patient money deals like what SSW did with Fairfax. 

 

I started looking at STNG when I saw a writeup about it on Adventures in Capitalism.  I came across his website when he did a bullish writeup on my 3rd largest position (JOE). It sounded like a smart idea so I started digging.  Besides investor presentations, I'm on my 3rd book on shipping (already read Shipping Man, Dynasties of the Sea and now on Viking Raid) and I'm learning a lot as I go. The CEO of STNG (Bugbee) was on a podcast recently.  He sums up the bull thesis (IMO 2020 causing a shortage of available ships and driving up pricing) pretty well. 

 

It's hard to find anything that floats that is trading above book value now because the sector has been suffering for so long.  I don't like the debt that they all have either, but it looks interesting and I hope will get better.  Terrible industries with debt that get worse make me sad if I have money in them.   

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I did do some reading in Ardmore about a year ago and it seemed that their tankers were specifically equipped to ship low sulfur fuel which is going to become the standard fuel option for ships due to emission regulations. Again take this with a grain of salt as I quickly lost interest in the sector and didn’t do any type of deep dive. But it seemed that although their fleet was a bit older they were better positioned and sort of cornered the market on distributing this fuel.

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I did do some reading in Ardmore about a year ago and it seemed that their tankers were specifically equipped to ship low sulfur fuel which is going to become the standard fuel option for ships due to emission regulations. Again take this with a grain of salt as I quickly lost interest in the sector and didn’t do any type of deep dive. But it seemed that although their fleet was a bit older they were better positioned and sort of cornered the market on distributing this fuel.

 

I get a sinking feeling when I read about value in the shipping sector.

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Bought a small sliver of FFH. Stock is at 52 week (and 5 year) low. What i like: insurance businesses and large cash position they have in their investment portfolio. Will be interesting to learn over time what new hires in invesmtent team decide to do with portfolio.

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Bought a small sliver of FFH. Stock is at 52 week (and 5 year) low. What I like: insurance businesses and large cash position they have in their investment portfolio. Will be interesting to learn over time what new hires in investment team decide to do with portfolio.

 

Frankly, I've been waiting for months now to observe this happen! [ : - D ] Viking's modus operandi : Stay out in the weeds, and then step in on the stage, when just about everybody is leaving at near maximum negativism. -And pretty evident to me, that Viking knows FFH very well, after following or being long FFH for many years.

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Bought a starter in PAYP (premarket yesterday) and also DD (rebuy). On an unrelated note, Fidelity went commission free today - yay!

 

Do you think the price improvements will go away & they'll start selling order flow?

 

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/press-release/Fidelity-Price-Improvement-Guide-Media-Advisory_02192019.pdf

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Bought a starter in PAYP (premarket yesterday) and also DD (rebuy). On an unrelated note, Fidelity went commission free today - yay!

 

Do you think the price improvements will go away & they'll start selling order flow?

 

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/press-release/Fidelity-Price-Improvement-Guide-Media-Advisory_02192019.pdf

 

I really don’t care. I reviewed the  price improvements I received this year va commissions paid and they were roughly 5% of the commission cost. (I do a lot of small trades when I scale in and out of positions). If you trade low priced stocks I low liquidity markets, then the price improvement matters, otherwise it has marginal impact.

 

More important is that Fidelity pays higher interest on cash balances than most other brokers, except IBKR. IBKR is best from a cost benefit perspective, but I don’t  like to put all eggs in one basket.

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Added a little NVTA. First the VIC write up a couple days ago, now the coordinated SA piece, when once again these thick framed dimwits keep putting on the wrong Einhorn like “oh but the valuation! They lose money!” Short. As if there isn’t enough evidence to point towards this being a terrible short, they just keep banging their heads against the wall wondering why they can’t make money. I remember reading the same pitch verbatim about TDOC at $14... Andrew Left has this correct in his evaluation.

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