TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020. Care to PM me your thoughts on this? I also own minor puts on SPY & QQQ - but was doing it primarily due to the cheapness of VIX and only using proceeds from covered call sales. A little scared to re-enter heavily. Have lost money on puts nearly every time I entered them in a big way. Thought I was going to turn it all around in 2018 with decelerating economic indicators, cheap options, and etc but Q4 smoked me and ensured I had a sizable loss on puts. Still looking at leading indicators, corporate profits, treasury rates/curve, and etc and think it's pretty clear we're continuing to decelerate, but less excited to lose money betting on that again. Do you have a process or thoughts on how you structure/size the positions as well as when you enter/exit? I seem to do better when I trade the positions rather than hold them but then it's not a hedge for the portfolio - just swing trading for small profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 "Care to PM me your thoughts on this?" Ever read my book: "Cardboard on Cardboard"? Typical seasonal high is about to come or when people get their tax bill. Market has been marching straight up since early October. China economy is shut down for at least 1 week after end of 2 week holidays and it could last longer. Revenues are anemic (another thread on that) and everything has been about climbing valuation. Democrats are being ignored and one of the crazies has a good chance to win nomination. TLT is flashing red. GLD is flashing red. Oil is flashing red. Copper is flashing red. A year or so ago they were scared shitless about a potential slowdown due to trade war. Now we have 20% of world GDP effectively shutdown and the market is not worried about forward earnings? I could be very wrong on this. Although your post encourages me as shorts have given up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 "Now we have 20% of world GDP effectively shutdown..." referring to china I presume. well, an exaggeration but I get your point. but isn't china slowdown a bigger delta to their exports than imports? isn't a slowdown in china something the US should not fear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 DD, RDSb and XOM Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 MSGN a hair under 15 and DD at 52.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Added a little SRG (close to the price Buffett bought at during the SHLD spinoff, but the company looks much better than it did 3 years ago), and a little FB and BRK and STNG. Nothing to write home about but just deployed the rest of my cash (about 1%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer022 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 GPOR Some insights ? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Trimmed IAU, SLV and TLT. Bought BP. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 More DD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjangal Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Making WORK a ~5% position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63. Wrote some more 63-strike, Jan 31 expiration puts for $0.60 per share. Wrote GILD 62-strike, Feb 7 expiration puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 got a little more pcyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Bought some odds and ends and a starter in FRA.DE (Frankfurt Airport) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63. Wrote some more 63-strike, Jan 31 expiration puts for $0.60 per share. Wrote GILD 62-strike, Feb 7 expiration puts. Wrote some 62.5-strike Feb 7 expiration puts. (Edit: $0.40 per share earlier this morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 PSX and KAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 RDSb Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 CSWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Added a little more BRK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Added a little more BRK Ditto. 1.3x book is not a bad price for Berk esp. as it's a partially "defensive" stock with the cash and traditional businesses, and also exposed to market upside thru Apple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Added a little more BRK Ditto. 1.3x book is not a bad price for Berk esp. as it's a partially "defensive" stock with the cash and traditional businesses, and also exposed to market upside thru Apple Indeed, on a relative basis its a lot more exciting to me here at 228 than it was at 21x.xx prior to the market going apeshit. You've probably got some favorable news flow heading into the AGM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dynamic Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I agree. I've increased my exposure recently and written and rolled some puts too. The 1.3 x Book Value is obviously an estimate until the results come out but I think these prices around $228-$229 are almost certainly going to come in pretty close, and Berkshire's portfolio is now above year end prices and has beaten the S&P since the end of September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 MSGN a hair under 15 and DD at 52.7 Gregmal - thanks for MSGN idea - out at $17.05 Shrinking share count very compelling. Nice idea. Hope to get another shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 MSGN a hair under 15 and DD at 52.7 Gregmal - thanks for MSGN idea - out at $17.05 Shrinking share count very compelling. Nice idea. Hope to get another shot. Cheers. Good when people make money. Took some off around there yesterday as well. Its a boring company but should grind out some value, especially if ones trades it. $14-$15 is just too cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sundin Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 A bit of DISCA today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I bought some Berkshire b shares over the week. Results should be very good and the Apple shares did perform quite well. P/B is 1,41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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