nspo Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Yeah, far more numbers than a DCF huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Yeah, far more numbers than a DCF huh? yes, Huh! all of your numbers are garbage in. DCF is a model that makes sense if you have reliable data. no prediction of the future results in reliable data. if you cant smell a good business selling at a reasonable price, then you can have your DCF and play with yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nspo Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 So let me get this clear. You're saying returns on capital, owner's earnings, dividend yield, and retention rates are garbage in? Is there a donkey button on this board?? I hope others don't subject themselves to this "garbage" I'm seeing. Read the numbers, don't take a cursory view and assume you understand what's being said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 So let me get this clear. You're saying returns on capital, owner's earnings, dividend yield, and retention rates are garbage in? Is there a donkey button on this board?? I hope others don't subject themselves to this "garbage" I'm seeing. Read the numbers, don't take a cursory view and assume you understand what's being said. no I am saying your estimates of these variables are garbage in. what is your expertise? the street gets these numbers wrong all of the time (mainly because they suck up to management all the time to create their projections). there is a false certainty to numbers that you dont appreciate, because you are asking someone/something to tell you what to do, and numbers are all too suggestive of wisdom. capiche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nspo Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 That's a valid point but these current numbers (and near term estimates thereof)are the best we have to work with. This is why one must be comfortable with the business prospects. The numbers I use assume normalized earnings and work from there. I lost you a little bit in the middle there but I'm Italian so capisco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Was doing some ETF research for a friend of mine last night, and it prompted me to put in order for the Vanguard S&p 500 etf Canadian dollar (low ball) as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Wrote GILD 70-strike, Marc 23 expiration puts for $0.51 per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 You also have to consider the compounding of reinvested earnings. The 20PE doesn't live in a vacuum. I have NO idea what the numbers actually are but if they retain 20% and earn 20% on those earnings than they're growing 4%. Then, you have to add in a portion for organic growth. Let's say you're fairly confident that V will grow at GDP. So 4%+3%, you get 7% growth. What's a 20% roic and 3% organic growth worth with an extremely defensible business model? Not sure, but you get 7% for growth, and a cash yield of (20PE =5% yield) 5% yield *80% payout= 4% cash yield. So 7% in growth, 4% in buyback and divs. 11% compounded? Not the worst It’s not a bad idea because to the best of my limited knowledge, the companies LT prospect won’t be impaired by the Covid-19 although short term earnings may suffer. I just don’t think the price is all that attractive. this thing hasn’t even seen its late 2018 lows yet and thr prospect are way worse than they were back then. Still being reasonably sure of no lasting impairment is worth something. We will see a lot of stocks going to zero in the next 12 month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nspo Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 I agree with you. I don't have much of an opinion on their prospects besides having a high level of confidence they'll be larger in 5-10 years. The earnings will, in the short term be impacted and maybe in the medium term revert lower, naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 WMB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Brkb, jpm, bac, sbux, bkng, tsco Down to 10% cash now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 So let me get this clear. You're saying returns on capital, owner's earnings, dividend yield, and retention rates are garbage in? Is there a donkey button on this board?? I hope others don't subject themselves to this "garbage" I'm seeing. Read the numbers, don't take a cursory view and assume you understand what's being said. no I am saying your estimates of these variables are garbage in. what is your expertise? the street gets these numbers wrong all of the time (mainly because they suck up to management all the time to create their projections). there is a false certainty to numbers that you dont appreciate, because you are asking someone/something to tell you what to do, and numbers are all too suggestive of wisdom. capiche? How would you know what price is reasonable or unreasonable if you refuse to think about what rate the company will grow or shrink into the future? With that line of thought, since "everything is GIGO" as you say, then tell me how you know Visa is a good buy at $120 and not at $240? (Or whatever you choose.) One can estimate without knowing precisely. This board should not let itself be watered down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agrippa07 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Added to Aercap (small position), Disney, and BRK.B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartansaver Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 BKRB at $173 :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Added a bit of RHM.DE. I liked it at ~70€, so it ought to be a good buy at 43€ and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nspo Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Loading up on FB and AXP. These prices are abnormal, to say the least. Thinking of adding defensible rails (UNP, CP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Spek, what level of cash are you at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Berkshire at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartansaver Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Berkshire at 168 Damn, nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Spek, what level of cash are you at now? A bit more than 35% roughly. Hard to tell, because the equity part goes down so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Spek, what level of cash are you at now? A bit more than 35% roughly. Hard to tell, because the equity part goes down so fast. haha I feel you man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Berkshire at 168 Same, was surprised it hit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Berkshire at 168 Same, was surprised it hit today. When it/if hits $120, people will decide to sell. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Berkshire at 168 Same, was surprised it hit today. I almost did. But got greedy and put in my order at 167. Before it moved away. That's ok though. I'll get my fill before the close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
username Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 GS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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