What are you buying today?

[rb]

I've actually went into this with a large cash holding. Not because I knew a pandemic was coming, but because the numbers didn't make sense for a while and I've stopped buying. So during this time I've been more focused on accumulating holdings as opposed to having fun trading.

 

Right now vol is expensive, so as a value investor I don't wanna buy vol, I wanna sell vol. So here's an idea for those that have some capital on their hands. It's nothing fancy. But find something that you like, you like the price and don't mind holding. Buy the underlying and sell a short dated call on it. If you don't get called you got a subsidy on your purchase. If you do get called then these days you've made a nice penny on the call premium.

[Santayana]

Yep, Buy-Write can be nice approach in a market like this.

[Kaegi2011]

Trying to buy puts on MA, and a couple of others.  The implied volatility is way up.  The cost is more than the other day, when the stock was higher.  Option sellers are expecting a quick reversion right back down.  Todays market rise is in response to the expected stimulus plans.  Once they come out and eveyrone realizes the economy is operating at 70% things may really drop. 

 

I am sitting out Leaps for now until this volatility settles down to a lower level.

 

Agree with this sentiment completely.  I've been trading in and out of SPY $200 strike puts recently and had sold it yesterday.  Today the options opened down at around $3 bucks and basically stayed there all day, despite SPY ramping by ~5% from open til close.  Interesting to see this in real time.

[DTEJD1997]

Yep, Buy-Write can be nice approach in a market like this.

 

I've started doing this and have had some success...one of them was epic in it's execution.

 

I've never seen volatility like this in my 30 years of investing...not even close.

 

The perfect move is to set up your "watch list" of potential candidates ahead of time.  Scan that list frequently, ESPECIALLY on down days.  If a stock is down 30%+ on just general news, BUY.  Wait till the market recovers and position goes back up 30, 50, 80 percent.  Write out o the money covered calls 3-6 months out.  You will have TREMENDOUS upside and will recover a significant portion of your initial capital.

 

WASH, RINSE, REPEAT

 

For example, I bought GES at about $3.80/share.  The next day, the stock goes to 11.  I sell the September 12 calls.  I got back all but $.10/share of my initial purchase price!  I now control GES shares, cost basis of $.10/share.  I get everything up to $12/share.  I also get to redeploy the capital into another position.

 

So if somebody could do this MULTIPLE times, you could control an incredible amount of stock with very little capital.  If somebody could do this 12-16-20 times a year you could get reasonably wealthy.

[HalfMeasure]

Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?

[kab60]

More AMA Group... Price chart makes one puke, but I think it's a potential 5-10 bagger, and unless I've completely missed something, I think I've rarely seen a selloff as crazy as this one. Might wanna write it up.

[matts]

Griffin Industrial Realty

 

What's your take on their tenant base? I imagine it's quite full of smaller companies since they don't talk about tenants

 

[Uccmal]

Everything is so fast moving that its hard to make any reasonably educated decisions. 

 

The problem I have with writing options is the huge amount of margin they use up.  Covered calls would be cheaper but I dont have enough common stock in anything large cap to make it worthwhile putting alot of brain power into. 

 

The other area from my 2008/09 playbook I completely forgot about were Preferred shares.  I just had a look at several sets of Prefs for Enbridge, BCE, and Bam in Canada.  Enbridge in particular has a few series that are yielding 10-11% and are off close to 50% in the last two weeks.  Did people suddenly stop buying oil and gas (rhetorical). BAM and BCE have some yielding near 8-10% and trading down 40% or so.  Did people stop using the internet and making calls?  I may look at picking up a basket of these and sort the garbage out later.  My research department doesn't have the capacity to analyze all the prospectus :-).

 

I've read guys like Icahn and Tepper are buying some oil patch debt.

 

I followed up on this into the night (the prefs idea).  Turns out many issues that look like a great deal on the surface are not such a great deal.  The companies mentioned have covered their bases quite well, which is I guess why I hold them as common stock.  The best apparent deals have rate resets attached to them.  With interest rates down and likely to stay down for years, they will reset at lower rates. 

 

Most are also perpetual issues that are callable by the companies at par value.  The companies will just keep rolling them over indefinitely.  In a dropping interest rate environment these prefs sell off.  It has the effect of dropping the share price rather than raising it. 

 

In summary, one would only buy these issues for income.  There may actually be permanent capital loss. 

[Uccmal]

Yep, Buy-Write can be nice approach in a market like this.

 

I've started doing this and have had some success...one of them was epic in it's execution.

 

I've never seen volatility like this in my 30 years of investing...not even close.

 

The perfect move is to set up your "watch list" of potential candidates ahead of time.  Scan that list frequently, ESPECIALLY on down days.  If a stock is down 30%+ on just general news, BUY.  Wait till the market recovers and position goes back up 30, 50, 80 percent.  Write out o the money covered calls 3-6 months out.  You will have TREMENDOUS upside and will recover a significant portion of your initial capital.

 

WASH, RINSE, REPEAT

 

For example, I bought GES at about $3.80/share.  The next day, the stock goes to 11.  I sell the September 12 calls.  I got back all but $.10/share of my initial purchase price!  I now control GES shares, cost basis of $.10/share.  I get everything up to $12/share.  I also get to redeploy the capital into another position.

 

So if somebody could do this MULTIPLE times, you could control an incredible amount of stock with very little capital.  If somebody could do this 12-16-20 times a year you could get reasonably wealthy.

 

I have tried this so many times over the years.  The one thing anyone contemplating it needs to be aware of is that at some point you most likely become a long time shareholder awaiting a rebound that can be years out.  Some examples include OBE(PWT), RIM (BBY), most recently WCP(Whitecap Resources)

 

BTW: DTEJD, I have been following your posts for years about Detroit and housing and always get alot out of them, so take the criticism from a place of respect. 

 

Al

[rb]

Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?

I like RioCan and Granite.

[thepupil]

Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?

 

 

IYR: maybe just buy all of them, though I think towers and data centers are expensive since they are the ones almost completely unaffected and/or helped by all this; I thought they were expensive before too.

 

CUZ: trophy Atlanta Austin Charlotte office 8-9 cap, 4x levered

 

JBGS: low leverage on asset basis, 5x on income, HQ2 focused DC metro 7-8 cap, office and apartments , huge land bank

 

ALEX: 7 ish cap, 15% ground lease, 15% industrial 70% retail on Hawaii, long entitlement, low retail sq foot per capita, high rents, has what some would consider high leverage, its well termed, fixed rate and stated use of all cash flow is delevering

 

VNO: see thread

 

DEI: 7 ish cap, office and apartments in Honolulu and LA, lots of small tenants (lawyers hollywood agents, real estate complex) so a bit more sensitive oerhaps, no position

 

EQR: Sam Zell high quality apartment REIT, down 40% or so, not super super cheap, but high quality

 

ESS: high quality Washington / Cali multi family off a lot, no position yet

 

NEN: illiquid class B multi family in Boston area, partnership structure, 7-8 cap (half of PMV on asset basis) with heavy single asset long term fixed rate leverage

 

EQC: see thread, cash box / SPAC, benefits from turmoil

 

GRIF: see thread

 

FRPH: see thread, actually been using as a source of cash on up days because it isn’t as diversified and has a lot of cash development exposure as percentage of assets, but its still a larger position than most of these.

 

KIM: 10% ish yield, 7-8x FFO, beautifully termed out balance sheet, people at the very least have been going to the grocery, I don't love it though because I don't love retail, super small starter

 

SPG: if you're going to owna  mall, might as well own the best one down 2/3 in a month, no position

 

MAC: Unless you want to buy the other that may make it and trades for 2x FFO, no position

 

the vegas/casino landlord REITs look cheap, but I haven't had the time

[KJP]

Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?

 

 

IYR: maybe just buy all of them, though I think towers and data centers are expensive since they are the ones almost completely unaffected and/or helped by all this; I thought they were expensive before too.

 

CUZ: trophy Atlanta Austin Charlotte office 8-9 cap, 4x levered

 

JBGS: low leverage on asset basis, 5x on income, HQ2 focused DC metro 7-8 cap, office and apartments , huge land bank

 

ALEX: 7 ish cap, 15% ground lease, 15% industrial 70% retail on Hawaii, long entitlement, low retail sq foot per capita, high rents, has what some would consider high leverage, its well termed, fixed rate and stated use of all cash flow is delevering

 

VNO: see thread

 

DEI: 7 ish cap, office and apartments in Honolulu and LA, lots of small tenants (lawyers hollywood agents, real estate complex) so a bit more sensitive oerhaps, no position

 

EQR: Sam Zell high quality apartment REIT, down 40% or so, not super super cheap, but high quality

 

ESS: high quality Washington / Cali multi family off a lot, no position yet

 

NEN: illiquid class B multi family in Boston area, partnership structure, 7-8 cap (half of PMV on asset basis) with heavy single asset long term fixed rate leverage

 

EQC: see thread, cash box / SPAC, benefits from turmoil

 

GRIF: see thread

 

FRPH: see thread, actually been using as a source of cash on up days because it isn’t as diversified and has a lot of cash development exposure as percentage of assets, but its still a larger position than most of these.

 

KIM: 10% ish yield, 7-8x FFO, beautifully termed out balance sheet, people at the very least have been going to the grocery, I don't love it though because I don't love retail, super small starter

 

SPG: if you're going to owna  mall, might as well own the best one down 2/3 in a month, no position

 

MAC: Unless you want to buy the other that may make it and trades for 2x FFO, no position

 

the vegas/casino landlord REITs look cheap, but I haven't had the time

 

Great list/summary.  Thanks for posting.  I'd add the following to the list:

 

HHC:  See the thread

 

the DREAM complex in Canada:

DREAM Unlimited -- see thread -- mother ship, asset manager and real estate developer, has direct on-balance sheets office/retail assets primarily in the Toronto area, indirect ownership of the same via units in managed funds, large western Canada (e.g., Calgary, Saskatchewan metros) land holdings that are being developed into residential suburbs over time, and a grab bag of other assets

DREAM Office -- office REIT focused on Toronto with favorable management contract terms due to a transaction a couple of years ago (see thread)

DREAM Alternatives -- Over the last few years this has shifted from a yield vehicle to a development vehicle for various DREAM projects

 

 

I assume we're using "REIT" very broadly to cover companies whose primary business is owned and leading real property.  In that case, FRPH probably no longer qualifies (vast majority of value is now cash/bond, aggregate royalties and DC multi-family development/land parcels, rather than NOI of existing assets).

[KJP]

Griffin Industrial Realty

 

What's your take on their tenant base? I imagine it's quite full of smaller companies since they don't talk about tenants

 

I've never seen a breakdown of their tenants by size or credit quality.  But on what they have said, and the types of companies that use warehouses in the places they have them, I don't think it's all smaller companies.  See, for example, slides 5 and 15 here:  http://www.griffinindustrial.com/assets/uploads/files/Investor%20Presentation%20-%20November%202018.pdf

 

 

[matts]

Griffin Industrial Realty

 

What's your take on their tenant base? I imagine it's quite full of smaller companies since they don't talk about tenants

 

I've never seen a breakdown of their tenants by size or credit quality.  But on what they have said, and the types of companies that use warehouses in the places they have them, I don't think it's all smaller companies.  See, for example, slides 5 and 15 here:  http://www.griffinindustrial.com/assets/uploads/files/Investor%20Presentation%20-%20November%202018.pdf

 

Thank you for the response. It looks like slide 5 is talking about tenants in the markets they operate in, not tenants in their buildings.

 

from slide 15: "Key locations for national or international companies (regional/super-regional distribution)" nice but the next line is "For smaller tenants, the property may be a tenant’s sole or mission-critical location" so it's a bit of a wash. It's also under the Aquisition Strategy slide so not necessarily indicative of current tenants. 

 

The lack of any tenant profile disclosure is disconcerting. If you had very creditworthy tenants, you would be highlighting it.

 

 

[KJP]

Griffin Industrial Realty

 

What's your take on their tenant base? I imagine it's quite full of smaller companies since they don't talk about tenants

 

I've never seen a breakdown of their tenants by size or credit quality.  But on what they have said, and the types of companies that use warehouses in the places they have them, I don't think it's all smaller companies.  See, for example, slides 5 and 15 here:  http://www.griffinindustrial.com/assets/uploads/files/Investor%20Presentation%20-%20November%202018.pdf

 

Thank you for the response. It looks like slide 5 is talking about tenants in the markets they operate in, not tenants in their buildings.

 

from slide 15: "Key locations for national or international companies (regional/super-regional distribution)" nice but the next line is "For smaller tenants, the property may be a tenant’s sole or mission-critical location" so it's a bit of a wash. It's also under the Aquisition Strategy slide so not necessarily indicative of current tenants. 

 

The lack of any tenant profile disclosure is disconcerting. If you had very creditworthy tenants, you would be highlighting it.

 

Yes, the slides refer to tenants in the markets, not their tenants specifically.  I agree with you that if they had all investment-grade tenants, they'd say so.  The broader point, however, is that these types of assets are (or at least were pre-corona) in demand, particularly Lehigh Valley and likely Charlotte and Orlando.

[Spekulatius]

More AMA Group... Price chart makes one puke, but I think it's a potential 5-10 bagger, and unless I've completely missed something, I think I've rarely seen a selloff as crazy as this one. Might wanna write it up.

 

I am a little bit concerned about the debt covenants. My stomach is weaker than yours, I puked this out when it was  0.57AUD, now at 0.175AUD.

 

It trades like an option now.

[shhughes1116]

Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?

 

I like multi-family REITs and industrial REITs.  That said, even after the large drop in the market, many are still at unattractive valuations. 

 

I am buying NextPoint Residential (NXRT).  They are currently priced around 12x TTM AFFO, and growing 10-20% per year, with properties located primarily in the Sunbelt. 

 

I am also buying BSR REIT.  It trades in Canada, but all properties located in the Sunbelt.  Last I checked, this was also trading at about 13x TTM AFFO, and also growing at a reasonable clip. 

 

I have also been looking for residential property to purchase (e.g. apartment buildings, condos, duplex, single-family homes).  Sadly the best I can find in my area are properties trading at roughly 20x TTM AFFO, which is not appealing to me.  I'm hoping that the devastation in the AirBNB market leads to some people selling their properties at more reasonable prices.  I've also considered buying land, and then building, but the current prices on suitable land aren't particularly appealing either.   

 

Happy to chat more about either in a separate thread, if someone wants to create that thread. 

[matts]

Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?

 

I like multi-family REITs and industrial REITs.  That said, even after the large drop in the market, many are still at unattractive valuations. 

 

I am buying NextPoint Residential (NXRT).  They are currently priced around 12x TTM AFFO, and growing 10-20% per year, with properties located primarily in the Sunbelt. 

 

I am also buying BSR REIT.  It trades in Canada, but all properties located in the Sunbelt.  Last I checked, this was also trading at about 13x TTM AFFO, and also growing at a reasonable clip. 

 

I have also been looking for residential property to purchase (e.g. apartment buildings, condos, duplex, single-family homes).  Sadly the best I can find in my area are properties trading at roughly 20x TTM AFFO, which is not appealing to me.  I'm hoping that the devastation in the AirBNB market leads to some people selling their properties at more reasonable prices.  I've also considered buying land, and then building, but the current prices on suitable land aren't particularly appealing either.   

 

Happy to chat more about either in a separate thread, if someone wants to create that thread.

 

There is a discussion on the impact for residential reits in the Read This If You Own Bank Stocks thread. I posted my concerns and would love your thoughts. Thanks.

 

[vinod1]

The way I see it serves two purposes

 

1. If we get some extreme tail event and BRK ends up at say $120 for example, a deep in the money LEAP would have resulted in a pretty big loss. Not really protecting me, other than freeing up some cash.

 

2. If market runs away while I am playing trading volatility and have higher cash allocation, the calls would make up for that.

 

Vinod

 

I hear what you're saying with (1). Perhaps I should rethink my options. I figure, I'd rather have that intrinsic value stored up. If I buy OOM options it frees up a bit more cash; but my exposure is very conditional.

 

I'm always a bit nervous with OOM options because in the case of (2), it seems like they are only useful if prices run up enough. And you have to sell at the right point  i.e. maximum upwards movement and volatility - do you find these OOM calls have a limited lifespan where you can make decent money? Or do you plan to hold until expiration and count on being right on both direction & timing?

 

You're right on volatility - LEAPs past 2021 were very expensive today.

 

I would not use OOM options either the vast majority of the time. In this particular case it seemed more appropriate.

 

Given the amount of volatility, what is in the money can quickly become at the money or even out of money in a matter of a day or two.

 

I bought $180 strike calls on Monday when stock is around $160s. They are not a bad risk/reward by themselves, but if BRK spiked up a bit, it would allow me to unload the stock and hold ATM calls. When it spiked right the next day, I sold and that freed up cash. I might not get lucky next time, but even if not I would be happy to hold those calls and likely be able trade those for a profit.

 

The worst case for me with these calls is that, BRK stays close to $180 all the way through end of 2021 without much volatility. Then I lose the entire premium. I got $174 from sales and paid $20 for calls, so I would end up $154.

 

I am betting that would not be the case, but even if I am wrong, my guess is that I would earn enough on the $154 on other things to cover it at least.

 

If BRK ends up at $180 at end of 2021, would I be really be happy owning the stock all the way through?

 

On the other hand, if BRK ends up below $155 or above $200, I would have been better off with the calls anyway.

 

Still trying to think my way through.

 

Vinod

 

 

[vinod1]

The way I see it serves two purposes

 

1. If we get some extreme tail event and BRK ends up at say $120 for example, a deep in the money LEAP would have resulted in a pretty big loss. Not really protecting me, other than freeing up some cash.

 

2. If market runs away while I am playing trading volatility and have higher cash allocation, the calls would make up for that.

 

Vinod

 

I hear what you're saying with (1). Perhaps I should rethink my options. I figure, I'd rather have that intrinsic value stored up. If I buy OOM options it frees up a bit more cash; but my exposure is very conditional.

 

I'm always a bit nervous with OOM options because in the case of (2), it seems like they are only useful if prices run up enough. And you have to sell at the right point  i.e. maximum upwards movement and volatility - do you find these OOM calls have a limited lifespan where you can make decent money? Or do you plan to hold until expiration and count on being right on both direction & timing?

 

You're right on volatility - LEAPs past 2021 were very expensive today.

 

This is a unique subject. Personally, I prefer to cut the stock via deep ITM. How much depends on my confidence and ability to really get under the hood. Being honest with myself this usually eliminates much over the market cap of day $10B. Companies bigger than that, even ones we all know well like BRK pose zero analytical edge and even when they do, have parts that move too quick.

 

If I really like it but am uncertain, I try to use the ITM as a stop loss. Similar to what I did with WFC in January. $45 strike. If it goes below there, I’m out. With stuff I’m dedicated to, you go deep ITM, figure that your margin of safety, and then of, let’s say something extraordinary like this happens, and you find yourself below the strike, you should still have reasonable confidence in valuation and time sorting things out, to load the boat on those same now OTM calls. Example let’s say BRK $150 calls. In the money now, and if they ever go below, you can swing big as OTM

 

I would use LEAPS really rarely and only in very limited situations. Financials in 2012/13/14 time frame is about it. Do not remember using them after that.

 

My own belief and I might be wrong, is that occasionally in times of really great uncertainty like 2008/9 in all stocks, financials in 2011/12/13 & 2016 and now, there is no need for any analytical edge. It may be because so many people and institutions are selling for reasons other than their estimates of value or future prospects, but prices become ridiculous in many cases. Then it is actually a matter of what businesses you have a handle on and keep buying them.

 

Vinod

[LC]

I agree with your second post regarding forced selling. It can be a great opportunity to buy shares in companies you know; and have a long-time horizon for expected holding. It can be difficult to identify forced sellers in most cases (COVID being an exception I suppose)

 

On your former post I too am still thinking through. For example Visa is up the last day or two and so are my ITM calls. Would I have been better off with OTM calls? I don't know for sure. I raised some cash but have not put all of it to use, so raising even more cash using OTM calls may not have been useful (at least as of today). On the other hand there's more leverage with the OTM calls.

 

Also I am trying to think through the various scenarios: down/flat/upwards market in two years. The second and third order effects (i.e. what you do with the $$ raised via this strategy) are difficult to imagine.

[gary17]

 

why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying

and TSLA up 10% - factories shut

 

and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people

 

    stock market doesn't make sense to me!

[estoybien]

 

why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying

and TSLA up 10% - factories shut

 

and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people

 

    stock market doesn't make sense to me!

 

Government $$$, that's why!

 

[Uccmal]

 

why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying

and TSLA up 10% - factories shut

 

and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people

 

    stock market doesn't make sense to me!

 

No sh*t.  The stimulus plans to me indicate how dire this is.  The stimulus plans are stop gaps at best and meant to keep certain segments of the economy from insolvency, and starvation.  Thats hardly thriving. 

 

People are so damn stupid and gullible. 

[Uccmal]

 

why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying

and TSLA up 10% - factories shut

 

and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people

 

    stock market doesn't make sense to me!

 

Government $$$, that's why!

 

It will be gone in a flash.