JRM Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 backing up the truck on KMI. I'm going down with the captain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Dipped the toe twice in WFC yesterday and today; Bought some T today as well. My assumption is the SP500 will eventually hit 2000. I am averaging my cash position down to that point, so that's the plan I guess ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 SLG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjangal Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Looking to buy ANET, PAYX, BKNG. Haven’t sold anything yet, but I feel this is going to prolong for a while, so buying slowly and in small quantities .Especially valuations may not return to where they were as markets have to price in second wave and 3rd wave scenarios in the absence of a vaccine. Good time for people with substantial cash as they can accumulate slowly SQ and TTD look risky to me as small businesses and ad budgets return slowly. Better to buy stronger players. Thinking about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 I have also been looking at Paychex but the industry does have low-ish barriers to entry. It does not seem like a large value-add although I will admit there is stickiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Dipped the toe twice in WFC yesterday and today; Bought some T today as well. My assumption is the SP500 will eventually hit 2000. I am averaging my cash position down to that point, so that's the plan I guess ;D That is the question of the day (S&P hitting 2k). Gundlach thinks we will retest the lows. Marks thinks we are headed lower. There is already talk of another infrastructure bill of $2 trillion. I guess it all comes down to if the country "reopens" in May. If we do, then we may not get down to 2k but if we don't reopen by mid May then it will probably go south of 2k and south of 1700. The market is probably discounting a May reopening is the only reason why we never went lower than 35% from the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjangal Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 I have also been looking at Paychex but the industry does have low-ish barriers to entry. It does not seem like a large value-add although I will admit there is stickiness. PAYX I am still going through the numbers, they still have low double digit growth, good roic and looks like they are using their balance sheet well, cons are obviously they are skewed towards small and medium sized businesses which are going to take a hit. Maybe stock already reflects that. I do a general check of numbers and take a judgement call as to whether the business can maintain competitive position, market opportunity. .Growth/fall in revenue usually reflects that. Asset light business models are very attractive . I also willingly will pay up to 40 pe for good growing businesses in this rate env Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 SHOP, AER, RCL, TSLA, PK, STNE, AEO, FB, HEI, ROKU, TDG (Keep in mind I have 30% in cash) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 BAM Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 AER CTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Pcyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluejoseph Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 You're probably aware but BAM split 3:2 today. Actually up 4% today. BAM Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 You're probably aware but BAM split 3:2 today. Actually up 4% today. BAM Thanks Lance Seeking Alpha showed/shows BAM as -30%. I got a little excited for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 You're probably aware but BAM split 3:2 today. Actually up 4% today. BAM Thanks Lance Yeah, limit order that was in place triggered. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrashIsCash Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 FPH (Five Points Holdings) +Spun out of LNR, prematurely, in 2017. +Owns three massive, but irreplaceable, tracts of land in: Irvine (Orange County) Valencia (N. LA County) Candlestick/ SF Shipyards (San Francisco) Valencia, FKA, Newhall Ranch, went through years of litigation, but just started selling finished lots three months ago. The ownership structure is confusing. They are well-capitalized. They will ride out the storm and be in great shape when things calm down. The CEO is highly-regarded and is a hero.... Last week, he was driving around Orange County, buying black market N95 masks with his own money to deliver to hospitals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrashIsCash Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 +Blue collar mobile home parks in the Midwest. If they are bought right and operated well, they are coupon clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysdrawing Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cevian Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 3 April 2020: Never thought I'd be able to purchase FFH again at CAD385 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysdrawing Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartansaver Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position? I agree. The tanker storage trade is no secret. It's all over Bloomberg TV, FT, etc. I was in the trade and when I saw all the media attention I got nervous and had my finger on the trigger. Sold the second trump tweeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 +Blue collar mobile home parks in the Midwest. If they are bought right and operated well, they are coupon clippers. Is your interest in Midwest mobile home parks a function of that region being particularly attractive vs. other regions, for some reason. Or is it your stomping grounds? If you have some history with this asset class, what have you seen in terms of cap rate compression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysdrawing Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position? I agree. The tanker storage trade is no secret. It's all over Bloomberg TV, FT, etc. I was in the trade and when I saw all the media attention I got nervous and had my finger on the trigger. Sold the second trump tweeted. I don't see any way that cuts get anywhere close to the 20 million barrel/day oversupply. Would add on an OPEC cut announcement next week, as I just don't see how the necessary cuts are at all credible. Might not work out, but if the oversupply persists, tanker companies will have a P/E of 1 during supercontango. I'm not quick on the trigger based on spot rate changes. There is a structural problem that I don't see any way to address. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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