What are you buying today?

[Castanza]

GOOG

VZ

T

CTL

RTX

PCYO

BAC

[TrashIsCash]

re: Midwestern Mobile Homes parks:

1) Most towns where I buy are economically stable.  They were not hit too hard by  GFC.

2) At the time, not a ton of competition from PE firms, wealthy private individuals, etc.  It is now more competitive, but I was able to find a good opportunity.

3) Prior to CV-19, cap rates were 5.5% for institutional-quality, larger assets to 7% for lower quality stuff. 

[LC]

GOOG

VZ

T

CTL

RTX

PCYO

BAC

 

The market did come down the last few days, were you trading out prior to that? Essentially asking whether you are slowly accumulating or simply trading around the market volatility?

 

For me I bought some WFC, T the last few days. Was planning on buying some more WFC today but was caught up and didn't have time. Hopefully further opportunity presents itself!

[Castanza]

GOOG

VZ

T

CTL

RTX

PCYO

BAC

 

The market did come down the last few days, were you trading out prior to that? Essentially asking whether you are slowly accumulating or simply trading around the market volatility?

 

For me I bought some WFC, T the last few days. Was planning on buying some more WFC today but was caught up and didn't have time. Hopefully further opportunity presents itself!

 

I was trading in and out of GOOG and a few others but started to accumulate in the above positions today. Still have quite a bit of cash and continued cash flow that I’ll deploy if we keep going lower. Timing is too hard. Less stressful to just dca on good companies and think 20 years down the line.

[LC]

Timing is too hard. Less stressful to just dca on good companies and think 20 years down the line.

 

Yea those are my thoughts too. Cheers  ;D

[Spekulatius]

GOOG

VZ

T

CTL

RTX

PCYO

BAC

 

Bought GOOG with an L and a bit of RTX. GOOGL was a partial rebuy, as I sold most of my position a few days ago.

[sleepydragon]

Added Brkb

[Broeb22]

CARR

[shhughes1116]

More JPM and Google. 

[Castanza]

GOOG

[Gregmal]

Bought a little SPG

[bskptkl]

I bought RDI today. It finished on its lows ($3ish) - looking really weak.

See attached Gabelli research piece.

I've managed to avoid this classic value trap for years until very recently, but I can't resist any longer!

 

One thought I had - if it declares ch 11, it would be good for equity holders in that there would be a mandated sales process. The management is absolutely horrible and are clinging to power by way of the RDIB super voting shares, which are holding up around $16ish. There is also a civil court case that may dislodge management.

 

I wonder how low it will go...

 

 

 

RDI_20200326_Gabelli_research.pdf

[alwaysdrawing]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely.

 

I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability.

 

My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.

[KJP]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory,

 

This is an interesting problem for clothing retailers, or anyone else that sells seasonal goods.  How far in advance does the typical clothing retailer acquire inventory, e.g., by mid-March I assume most winter clothing is already gone.  Is the mid-March inventory primarily spring or summer clothes? 

 

Either way, it seems like there is going to be alot of out-of-season clothing around.  Would off-price discounters benefit from that?  Also, someone's going to have to eat most of that.  Will brands take some of it back?

[alwaysdrawing]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory,

 

This is an interesting problem for clothing retailers, or anyone else that sells seasonal goods.  How far in advance does the typical clothing retailer acquire inventory, e.g., by mid-march I assume most winter clothing is already gone.  Is the mid-march inventory primarily spring or summer clothes? 

 

Either way, it seems like there is going to be alot of out-of-season clothing around.  Would off-price discounters benefit from that?  Also, someone's going to have to eat most of that.  Will brands take some of it back?

 

Maybe off-price can buy tons of stuff cheap, but who wants Easter stuff after the holiday?  How many people just don't need new swimsuits at any price if they are cancelling their trip to Hawaii?

 

Plus, we were at all time high consumer sentiment in February....how's consumer sentiment now?  All of my friends are delaying or cancelling vehicle/house purchases, and sticking to the necessities, even if they have money.  Who is going "shopping" even if stores re-open?  And to what extent was BURL's target market (women with incomes $25k-100k) affected financially?

 

 

[Gregmal]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely.

 

I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability.

 

My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.

 

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation?

[KJP]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory,

 

This is an interesting problem for clothing retailers, or anyone else that sells seasonal goods.  How far in advance does the typical clothing retailer acquire inventory, e.g., by mid-march I assume most winter clothing is already gone.  Is the mid-march inventory primarily spring or summer clothes? 

 

Either way, it seems like there is going to be alot of out-of-season clothing around.  Would off-price discounters benefit from that?  Also, someone's going to have to eat most of that.  Will brands take some of it back?

 

Maybe off-price can buy tons of stuff cheap, but who wants Easter stuff after the holiday?  How many people just don't need new swimsuits at any price if they are cancelling their trip to Hawaii?

 

Plus, we were at all time high consumer sentiment in February....how's consumer sentiment now?  All of my friends are delaying or cancelling vehicle/house purchases, and sticking to the necessities, even if they have money.  Who is going "shopping" even if stores re-open?  And to what extent was BURL's target market (women with incomes $25k-100k) affected financially?

 

I was just asking about the balance sheet writedowns to inventory (and potential covenant and working capital/cash flow arising therefrom) that seem likely.  As you note, the fact that stores might not even be able to sell seasonally appropriate inventory is, of course, another even bigger potential problem.

[alwaysdrawing]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely.

 

I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability.

 

My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.

 

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation?

 

I just buy long out of the money puts.

[changegonnacome]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely.

 

I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability.

 

My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.

 

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation?

 

I just buy long out of the money puts.

 

Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts?

[collegeinvestor]

Anyone looking into restaurant/food industry stocks?

Im looking at:

 

CAKE

SYSCO

 

 

Nibbled on:

JPM, BRKB, WYNN, MSG

 

[alwaysdrawing]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely.

 

I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability.

 

My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.

 

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation?

 

I just buy long out of the money puts.

 

Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts?

 

Mostly I buy longer dated stuff--Jan 2021.  I have some shorter dates on this name too, but mostly I'm in Jan 2021 $100s/$120s

[drzola]

CDN so Easy Peasy right now as it's Buy buy buy and make make  make so BAM BAM it is here in Huge Bigly quantities.

[changegonnacome]

Mostly I buy longer dated stuff--Jan 2021.  I have some shorter dates on this name too, but mostly I'm in Jan 2021 $100s/$120s

 

 

Thanks timing & pricing sitting where I was thinking also

 

Q2 has to be melt down for this group - mid-August earnings release/call with corresponding Sept 2020 120 puts could be good bet

[wescobrk]

SPY puts

[Spekulatius]

I'm buying puts on BURL.  Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits.

 

If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely.

 

I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability.

 

My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.

 

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation?

 

I just buy long out of the money puts.

 

Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts?

 

Mostly I buy longer dated stuff--Jan 2021.  I have some shorter dates on this name too, but mostly I'm in Jan 2021 $100s/$120s

 

The spreads on those puts is something to behold. Bid and ask are 2x apart (order of magnitude).