DanielGMask Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 It is based on relative purchasing power, term spread and cash interest rates. The mexican peso right now is very undervalued on rppp (~35%) against the USD and ranks very high on term spread and interest rates. Ruerd Heeg on Seeking Alpha has some good articles on currencies. Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate that’s leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesn’t mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets. The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (I’m not), I would bet against the peso! I base my investment decisions on facts, not on news or emotions. But hey, that makes a market. Maybe i am wrong. Currency speculation is precisely that, speculation. And facts tend to be deceiving when dealing in an speculating environment, but seems you are comfortable and convinced of what you are doing. I was just trying to point you in the direction of some “facts” you consider news or emotions, so be my guest! Still think the Mexican peso was undervalued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted April 27, 2020 Author Share Posted April 27, 2020 Vivendi SOTP indicates this is 50% + undervalued UMG alone is worth $33B & total market cap is currently $24B Ticker: VIVHY Anyone else looked at this lately? It seems crazy https://variety.com/2020/music/global/vivendi-closes-sale-of-10-of-umg-to-tencent-led-consortium-1203549838/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-20/vivendi-sales-gain-as-justin-bieber-helps-offset-hit-to-ad-unit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 SPDN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 Swapped a smidge of FRPH into ESRT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Vivendi SOTP indicates this is 50% + undervalued UMG alone is worth $33B & total market cap is currently $24B Ticker: VIVHY Anyone else looked at this lately? It seems crazy https://variety.com/2020/music/global/vivendi-closes-sale-of-10-of-umg-to-tencent-led-consortium-1203549838/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-20/vivendi-sales-gain-as-justin-bieber-helps-offset-hit-to-ad-unit Thanks for posting. I am invested in the Bollore orbit in other ways (ODET.PA) did some partial tax losses sales and decided to get back into this via Vivendi (the crown jewel) directly. The Universal music business alone covers the Vivendi so all the other business are for free so to speak. Universal music is a fantastic and growing cash cow and especially in the current environment worth a very high multiple. VIV has increased their dividend and seems to be buying back shares. I very much like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bskptkl Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 Took out the offer in QUCT. Not the first time this month either. It seems wrong buying on the way up though. Besides thinly traded, quasi dark, insider controlled - anyone have a bear case on this one? Is that like saying, "Other than that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Bought a bit of GD. I felt the guidance was Ok and the valuation is pretty good at ~ 11x current (post COVID earnings)- Also added a bit more Vivendi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Bought a bit of GD. I felt the guidance was Ok and the valuation is pretty good at ~ 11x current (post COVID earnings)- Also added a bit more Vivendi. Me too! (On GD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 ESRT, PGRE and SLG Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 I bought more Berkshire b shares over the week. No Berkshire Hathaway run-up in the shares this year before the annual meeting. It will be interesting to see what Buffett bought and how the big businesses are doing. However Berkshire shares are cheap and safe. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 As I said, most likely he bought nothing material I bought more Berkshire b shares over the week. No Berkshire Hathaway run-up in the shares this year before the annual meeting. It will be interesting to see what Buffett bought and how the big businesses are doing. However Berkshire shares are cheap and safe. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Puts on IWM, VNQ added to some shorts as well. F, YETI, OPK Bought a little more ESRT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 I bought more Berkshire b shares over the week. No Berkshire Hathaway run-up in the shares this year before the annual meeting. It will be interesting to see what Buffett bought and how the big businesses are doing. However Berkshire shares are cheap and safe. :) I have been in and out of BRK three different times in the past month. Small 3-4% gains each time. Bought more today. BRK is pretty unloved right now. Expectations are very low. Not expecting anything big to be announced tomorrow. However, one of these years we will get a nice surprise (larger stock buybacks or big purchase or something else) as Buffett will do something with the +$100 billion in cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 added more VNO Bought a starting position in CMCSA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Bought a tiny bit of BRK'B s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 A bit more GD and restarting TRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 ALX Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 AER, GSY, TDG, PK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 More ESRT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Bought back some BRKB. I felt like swimming naked without owning some. Also added a tad more GD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Bought back some BRKB. I felt like swimming naked without owning some. Also added a tad more GD. Added both of these and a touch of RTX, VZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Bought back some BRKB. I felt like swimming naked without owning some. Also added a tad more GD. Added both of these and a touch of RTX, VZ I abused RTX for a trade, but trying to wrap my head around this, RTX really is BA with a better balance sheet and less baggage, But it’s still half commercial aerospace and I expect this sector to lose 50% of their revenues probably for a couple of years. It will come back, but the path to get there won’t be pretty for a while. I think a lot of these stocks in commercial aerospace are most likely overvalued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 bought some IRM, PM, WFC, T, and a tiny tiny position in SSD the last few trading days. At about 10% cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Sold VNO and bought BRKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 bought some IRM, PM, WFC, T, and a tiny tiny position in SSD the last few trading days. At about 10% cash. I’ve looked at this company a few times and it’s interesting but long term I find it hard to be confident in their “moat”. Curious what your quick take is if you don’t mind sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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