willie2013 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Again MSOS and selling a 2/19/21 covered call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation! So why so bullish on BRK? Is it absolute value? Relative value? Cyclical play? What are a catalysts to get the stock moving? More buybacks? Mystery new purchase? Buffett finally putting cash hard to work? One headwind is Apple valuation (very expensive and could come way down if we get a sell off). Do you really like financials? I do like BRK; it looks cheap... is it crazy cheap (to warrant big overweight)? Just trying to understand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation! That is what I would call a starter allocation! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation! So why so bullish on BRK? Is it absolute value? Relative value? Cyclical play? What are a catalysts to get the stock moving? More buybacks? Mystery new purchase? Buffett finally putting cash hard to work? One headwind is Apple valuation (very expensive and could come way down if we get a sell off). Do you really like financials? I do like BRK; it looks cheap... is it crazy cheap (to warrant big overweight)? Just trying to understand... Just my opinion of course but its all of the above and then some. Apple may have been a huge home run, but that certainly didnt get fully priced into the shares. I bring up from time to time my mistake of buying BRK at $196 in Jan 2019 bc I liked the exposure to AAPL at $160(pre split) and all the financials... I think buybacks will be solid, although somewhat muted as a result of the longer YE-Q1 blackouts requirements. But going forward I would expect repurchase figures to ramp, much more in line with the most recent Q than those before it. Financials have also run, but again, BRK? Not so much. Insurance should be solid. Energy will continue rebounding. Heck this darn thing is basically flat y/y. I view the spring as coiled. It can win as a cyclical, it can win if rates rise, it can win from these levels in so many different scenarios that the optionality becomes very appealing. Its only a matter of time before the money flow finds its way here as the value proposal between this and the rest of the market is too big to ignore. The upside will happen. Ive noticed this thing tends to move in quick bursts. Downside will be buffered by all the cash, the recovering economy, and buybacks. I see many scenarios where this could easily peel of 15-20% to the upside. I have a very hard time envisioning the same type of downside. $190 is very hard to picture. So I think the deck is stacked quite favorably here and as such, its time to bet big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 BRK. Decided it was time to lock in some FFH gains from the past 8 weeks (still own a bunch); still like FFH, just not as much as when it was 20% cheaper. Happy to add BRK at $233. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation! Currently, BRK is a 12% position size for me (in my RRSP). After seeing this post, I am itching to bring it up. I got a Citigroup position that i am itching to dump, but it dropped 7% today. My breakeven (my emotional anchor) is set at $70 USD. I did not add to it during the bear market. Thinking to dump most of that on BRK. That would bring BRK to 16%, make the portfolio ever tighter. BUT my BRK average cost would go from $192 USD (my emotional anchor) to $200 USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I view the spring as coiled. It can win as a cyclical, it can win if rates rise, it can win from these levels in so many different scenarios that the optionality becomes very appealing. Its only a matter of time before the money flow finds its way here as the value proposal between this and the rest of the market is too big to ignore. The upside will happen. Ive noticed this thing tends to move in quick bursts. Downside will be buffered by all the cash, the recovering economy, and buybacks. I see many scenarios where this could easily peel of 15-20% to the upside. I have a very hard time envisioning the same type of downside. $190 is very hard to picture. So I think the deck is stacked quite favorably here and as such, its time to bet big. +1 30% position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 OACB which is Oaktree's second SPAC. Playing it as a "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" cash alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Nibbled some WFC and ATCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Recent buys. FB, starters in VMW and RNR. RNR is a reinsurer that has me interested because they have one of the best underwriting records of al, peers and they also manage some third party/ hybrid vehicles. VMW is growth at a reasonable price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
york Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Added a little more Blackberry today - at almost double my cost base. It seems that folks are coming to understand the quality product still on offer by the team at BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arski Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 OACB which is Oaktree's second SPAC. Playing it as a "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" cash alternative. How confident are you that they don't shrew up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Added a few more MX and BAM EDIT: also got allocated some IIIIU Sold some MX. Paid down some margin. Started GILT. Sold 2/3 of GILT, paid down some margin, added more BRK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 VMW is growth at a reasonable price. I wish Mirantis/Docker was public. Bought BRK the past few trading days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do Is this a response to the superstockmarket and government monetary policy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Bought a tiny, 100% speculative XRP position before the trading suspension. Dont give 2 hoots about XRP but I think I am comfortable with my understanding of how SEC related issues get resolved and and while there is always the risk its wiped out or never trades again on a mainstream basis(hence small position), if things go the way I expect them to this should open 3-4x higher than where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do Is this a response to the superstockmarket and government monetary policy? Yes - at the risk of diverting this thread into the political quicksand, I am concerned about inflation as it seems to be a risk that many market participants are discounting right now. I'm cognizant of the fact that gold yields nothing, but I'm overexposed to USD as a US resident, and I think that the fiscal bias of the new administration will be towards more stimulus. We will have the most dovish Fed chair in history working with the second most dovish Fed chair in history (in her forthcoming role as Treasury Secretary) along with a new President who has voiced support for significant spending programs. The prudence of Paul Volcker is long past, we're now well over 100% debt-to-GDP in the US, and given our relatively anemic GDP growth over the past decade, I don't see us "growing out" of that debt, meaning that the only course for policymakers is full on fiscal repression. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing significant increases in grocery prices along with dastardly "shrinkflation" (same price, less food), and it seems like some of the current levitation in the stock market may simply be attributable to the sheer amount of liquidity surging into the system. That being said, I seem to be an excellent contrary indicator on macro, so those reading this might want to load up on NASDAQ calls :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Added significantly to GLD - not really finding much else to do Is this a response to the superstockmarket and government monetary policy? Yes - at the risk of diverting this thread into the political quicksand, I am concerned about inflation as it seems to be a risk that many market participants are discounting right now. I'm cognizant of the fact that gold yields nothing, but I'm overexposed to USD as a US resident, and I think that the fiscal bias of the new administration will be towards more stimulus. We will have the most dovish Fed chair in history working with the second most dovish Fed chair in history (in her forthcoming role as Treasury Secretary) along with a new President who has voiced support for significant spending programs. The prudence of Paul Volcker is long past, we're now well over 100% debt-to-GDP in the US, and given our relatively anemic GDP growth over the past decade, I don't see us "growing out" of that debt, meaning that the only course for policymakers is full on fiscal repression. Anecdotally, I'm already seeing significant increases in grocery prices along with dastardly "shrinkflation" (same price, less food), and it seems like some of the current levitation in the stock market may simply be attributable to the sheer amount of liquidity surging into the system. That being said, I seem to be an excellent contrary indicator on macro, so those reading this might want to load up on NASDAQ calls :D My guess is we get a big inflation head fake later in 2021 as the economy gathers steam. And then the deflationary forces kick in again. I am in the Lacy Hunt / Hoisington camp that more debt = disinflation perhaps leading to mild deflation in a few years. The good news in the US is the consumer is in good shape (debt wise) unlike Canada. 2021 is setting up to be a blowout year for asset prices (driven primarily by free money). Where i live in Vancouver people are starting to predict record price increases for housing in the spring selling season (which of course would set nose-bleed record selling prices). Price increases for housing also look strong in the US. Makes sense to me stocks will also join the party (who wants to own bonds in their portfolio anymore?). Hang on tight... the roaring 20’s might just be getting started :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Sold a small amount of SE to add to BRKB and BAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 My guess is we get a big inflation head fake later in 2021 as the economy gathers steam. And then the deflationary forces kick in again. I am in the Lacy Hunt / Hoisington camp that more debt = disinflation perhaps leading to mild deflation in a few years. The good news in the US is the consumer is in good shape (debt wise) unlike Canada. 2021 is setting up to be a blowout year for asset prices (driven primarily by free money). Where i live in Vancouver people are starting to predict record price increases for housing in the spring selling season (which of course would set nose-bleed record selling prices). Price increases for housing also look strong in the US. Makes sense to me stocks will also join the party (who wants to own bonds in their portfolio anymore?). Hang on tight... the roaring 20’s might just be getting started :-) That's certainly a plausible hypothesis, and Lacy Hunt has forgotten more than I will ever know about monetary policy, so it's definitely humbling to be on the other side of the trade. That being said, the reason I'm betting the way I am is that the virus and concomitant lockdowns have destroyed a lot of our productive capacity and gummed up supply chains worldwide, but that capacity hasn't really been restored by the stimulus packages. Handing out cash has not put Humpty Dumpty back together again. So we have a situation where trillions of dollars are being pumped into the system, but those trillions are not going to things that improve productivity like infrastructure or toward saving the firms that actually need aid. Many businesses were left out in the cold by our previous stimulus packages and are either dead/dying or unable to return to "normal" operations. In the US, we also have relief checks being sent to people who may not have lost their jobs in the first place, and many people, especially the work from home set, have more cash than ever. The Fed's chart of M2 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2) is sobering, and the anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that a certain amount of this money has made its way into speculative bets on options, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies. The overly simplified equation to me is: More money sloshing around / fewer goods & services actually able to be produced, delivered, or provided = higher prices for goods and services (especially those with inelastic demand like food) and skyrocketing asset prices. The policymakers seem to be totally out of ideas; their only policy prescriptions are to "print more money" and "kick the can down the road." Just today Janet Yellen talked about issuing 50-year bonds, which would take the US to new levels of can-kicking. To me, since the US will never default (due to its control of the reserve currency) and can't raise rates due to the enormous burden of debt service, the only way out is inflation. This is also a politically palatable option as some of the people can be fooled some of the time by nominal "increases" in their salaries and prices of their houses and stocks. One thing that strikes me is that both the inflationist and disinflationist/deflationist camps seem to broadly agree that once you lower interest rates to 0% to spur nominal GDP growth, there's no coming back in real terms. ZIRP is like the Hotel California - you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Appreciate the commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I listened to Gundlach’s 2021 outlook presentation. I think his basic conclusion is you need to have a barbell strategy to take advantage of either inflation happening or a continuation of disinflation/mild deflation. Smart people seem to be pretty stumped about which scenario we get in the coming year (s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I sold Bank of Nova Scotia at break-even prices. I guess i got the dividends for now. I added this week to these three to my existing positions all at higher dollars: - Couche Tard - BIP.UN - Berkshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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