shhughes1116 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 VIAC Jan 2023 puts @ $40 strike for $11.50. I'd be happy to buy Viacom again in the high 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Some BRK.Bkeep adding :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchman Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Buying bac !? Been thinking about selling! Maybe we're in a new world where banks rerate as worries about a gfc type event fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, dutchman said: Buying bac !? Been thinking about selling! Maybe we're in a new world where banks rerate as worries about a gfc type event fade. I think it depends on your time horizon. I think there are multiple factors still at play in near term from getting out of the Fed's regulatory lock on buybacks and higher dividends , rising rates, loan loss reserves being released, and control on expenses. Sure it ran up quite a bit and some news are baked in but there be some more upside to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Dont think it depends on anything other than identifying which cycle your are projecting and where the tentacles of the octopus reach. Banks have undergone a fundamental purge over the past decade and are now integral to the implementation of basically anything that is likely to unfold. That said, Im not trying too hard to be cute on this. I did start BAC the other day but its just another angle where BRK wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Picked up some more APTS It feels like I just clone Gregmal's ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: Picked up some more APTS It feels like I just clone Gregmal's ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agrippa07 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 opened position in Alibaba/ BABA, at current valuation this is starting to look very interesting. Reminds me of the position Tencent was a couple years back. Also added a bit to VIAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 What am I buying today? Took my 4 year old to get T-ball stuff. Holy fuck did it make me feel old. Glove, helmet, hat...$150. 20 years ago I busted my ass for 15 hours doing landscaping work to pay for a Nokona glove I needed for HS ball. Now before you can even hit the kids up with chores you're spending nearly $200 for stuff they'll grow out of in 12 months..and the adult gloves are pushing $300 for run of the mill quality stuff...crazy. Dont even want to think about hockey equipment for the fall. Hopefully no one follows me into that trade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Every Banana Counts Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 MKL- I am surprised I did not hear more people talking about Markel right now. I am really excited Saurabh Madaan joined the team. He seems like an outstanding human, and I expect he does a great job. I also think MKL is selling at a good price assuming their future looks anything at all like their past (big assumption). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Today's rip seemed like a fine opportunity to tack on some more shares to the ARK shorts, so I seized the opportunity. Also added a few shares of MSGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 18 hours ago, Gregmal said: What am I buying today? Took my 4 year old to get T-ball stuff. Holy fuck did it make me feel old. Glove, helmet, hat...$150. 20 years ago I busted my ass for 15 hours doing landscaping work to pay for a Nokona glove I needed for HS ball. Now before you can even hit the kids up with chores you're spending nearly $200 for stuff they'll grow out of in 12 months..and the adult gloves are pushing $300 for run of the mill quality stuff...crazy. Dont even want to think about hockey equipment for the fall. Hopefully no one follows me into that trade! Lucky for that kid, his dad is printing money in the markets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ContrarianValue44 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 On 3/29/2021 at 3:27 PM, shhughes1116 said: VIAC Jan 2023 puts @ $40 strike for $11.50. I'd be happy to buy Viacom again in the high 20's. Hi, thanks for your comment! Wondering why you are negative on Viacom at today's prices? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 APTS (thanks Greg seems interesting) ATCO AMZN BRKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 Added a bit of BABA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANP301191 Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 Added some LVMH (EPA: MC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 I bought some Visa a few days ago after the bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shhughes1116 Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 On 4/1/2021 at 3:43 PM, ContrarianValue44 said: Hi, thanks for your comment! Wondering why you are negative on Viacom at today's prices? Thanks! I wouldn't say I am negative. I originally bought Viacom in the mid-20s, HODL through the March 2020 tank, and then sold in the high-40s (and missed the subsequent rip to $100) I tend to think mid-40s is a fair price, and I tend to think high-20s is a reasonable price to accumulate. When volatility is high, I like to sell at the money puts for stocks I like. In this case, the premium was too juicy to resist, and puts me into the stock at my buy price if I am put the shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattR Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 4:46 PM, Ulverski said: Hi! Added to PhosAgro (LSE: PHOR) and Flow Traders (AMS: FLOW) Also few days ago I bought small position in iShares ETF on Turkey. Just a test drive, we will see. Hey, do you have more information on both? Their numbers look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 (edited) I like to sell at the money puts for stocks I like. In this case, the premium was too juicy to resist, and puts me into the stock at my buy price if I am put the shares I think one has to be very careful with this strategy. A closer look indicates that selling naked puts is almost always a bad strategy. 1) if one is selling puts at a strike price above one's estimate of IV, then one is not getting adequately compensated in terms of premium for the risk being taken. IOW - one is selling insurance way too cheaply. 2) if the strike price of the naked put is at or below your estimate of IV, then you are better off buying the underlying stock. Why bother with the naked puts in this case? There could be times where selling puts makes sense - but usually because someone like Buffett is accumulating the underlying stock. He has done this in the past when he believes he is buying a stock trading below IV and wants to lock in the price for continued accumulation beyond the immediate term of his buying (eg, KO in 1993-94 and BNSF in 2009-10). wabuffo Edited April 3, 2021 by wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted April 3, 2021 Share Posted April 3, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, wabuffo said: I like to sell at the money puts for stocks I like. In this case, the premium was too juicy to resist, and puts me into the stock at my buy price if I am put the shares Selling naked puts is almost always a bad strategy. 1) if one is selling puts at a strike price above one's estimate of IV, then one is not getting adequately compensated in terms of premium for the risk being taken. IOW - one is selling insurance way too cheaply. 2) if the strike price of the naked put is at or below your estimate of IV, then you are better off buying the underlying stock. Why bother with the naked puts in this case? There could be times where selling puts makes sense - but usually because someone like Buffett is accumulating the underlying stock. He has done this in the past when he believes he is buying a stock trading below IV and wants to lock in the price for continued accumulation beyond the immediate term of his buying (eg, KO in 1993-94 and BNSF in 2009-10). wabuffo Indeed, it can make sense for someone like Buffett accumulating shares as it probably lets him keep low percentage of trading volume he is buying in order to not ring up the price. From my perspective, I see two issues with selling puts: #1. Good businesses don't go on sale at good prices all the time. If you only sell puts, and don't get put on, you might miss the opportunity of acquiring an amazing business at an amazing price. #2. Another great business might go on sale during your put duration. If you already have your cash earmarked for being put on, during the period of your put duration, you might miss an opportunity of acquiring another amazing business at an amazing price. Edited April 3, 2021 by LearningMachine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 On 7/31/2020 at 1:52 PM, Gregmal said: Bought some GLDD. May write it up later. Very interesting company. Turn around story, high barriers to entry, lots of free call options on various businesses/developments, including global warming. Listed by Barrons as one of the top infrastructure plays poised to benefit from Joseph's spending bonanza. Up nearly 80% inside of 8 months. Think its still got room to run. More Gregmalpha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 I added to MKO.V and FISH.V last week. Mako is a gold miner in Nicaragua and Sailfish has a royalty on Mako's mine along with some other assets. I also went on a podcast and talked about them along with ATTO and ELF.TO. Mako stuff starts at 34:30 https://twitter.com/BrownMarubozu/status/1378157840049782784?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulverski Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 (edited) On 4/3/2021 at 6:20 PM, MattR said: Hey, do you have more information on both? Their numbers look great. Hey MattR, yes of course. PhosAgro It's fertilizer producer from Russia with the best phosphate ore. Rich in phosphate and with low cadmium, arsenic and lead levels. It means that they don't have to do additional work to make their product the best quality and safe for people = low cost of production. They're making money even when fertilizer prices are low. Margins range was between 23-49% depending on the cycle. Own distribution network, so no middlemen, more money for the company. Most of their products goes to China and India. It's possible that they increase sales to Europe, becasue EU wants to introduce more strict norms limiting alloved cadmium levels in fertilizers. That will hit PhosAgro's competition. Also they don't have to worry about US sanctions. Have good, conservative management, with Jim Rogers on the board, concentrated on the business - not only on the stock performance - and rewarding shareholders with dividend (39-59% payout ratio). They grow 5-10% per year, passed ivestment peak and are planning to increase production till 2025 (Volkov project). Long story short. Very good business and inflation hedge. Best quality and low cost producer in one. You can't be wrong with that. Risk is Russia and currency issues, but to be fair I'm more afraid of that what is happening in USA (FED printing, Biden's taxes and spendings...) than what might or might not happen in Russia. FLOW There is really good article about them on Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395073-flow-traders-portfolio-hedge-pays-fat-dividends Edited April 5, 2021 by Ulverski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DumDumInvestor Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, Ulverski said: Hey MattR, yes of course. PhosAgro It's fertilizer producer from Russia with the best phosphate ore. Rich in phosphate and with low cadmium, arsenic and lead levels. It means that they don't have to do additional work to make their product the best quality and safe for people = low cost of production. They're making money even when fertilizer prices are low. Margins range was between 23-49% depending on the cycle. Own distribution network, so no middlemen, more money for the company. Most of their products goes to China and India. It's possible that they increase sales to Europe, becasue EU wants to introduce more strict norms limiting alloved cadmium levels in fertilizers. That will hit PhosAgro's competition. Also they don't have to worry about US sanctions. Have good, conservative management, with Jim Rogers on the board, concentrated on the business - not only on the stock performance - and rewarding shareholders with dividend (39-59% payout ratio). They grow 5-10% per year, passed ivestment peak and are planning to increase production till 2025 (Volkov project). Long story short. Very good business and inflation hedge. Best quality and low cost producer in one. You can't be wrong with that. Risk is Russia and currency issues, but to be fair I'm more afraid of that what is happening in USA (FED printing, Biden's taxes and spendings...) than what might or might not happen in Russia. FLOW There is really good article about them on Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395073-flow-traders-portfolio-hedge-pays-fat-dividends Investing in Russia is insanity. Potential new war in Ukraine and sanctions. Any business in Russia can be easily destroy by Putin and his close friends. Checkout what happened with Durov, founder of Telegram or what happened with Chichvarkin, Michael Calvey and others. Checkout what happened with ruble in past 5 years add to this that Russia is more interesting in cheap ruble because it sells oil in $. In nearest couple of years 1$ will be 100 rubles, for sure. To invest in Russia you really need to know that market very well. Several Russian investors who live in Russia do not touch that market at all. I know quite well what happens there and I know the language and I would never invest in that country while there Putin in power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now