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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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19 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Took 150% of basis off the table. Letting the rest ride. Go make it a MEME now Reddit. 

After looking at the chain, I sold some more of these and then shorted some slightly OTM puts expiring 6/18. Real fat premiums on those. 

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OSTK - the furniture biz is selling at half of where it should and so we essentially get a portfolio of a couple dozen blockchain investments (w 70% carry for ListCo) basically for free. That sort of crypto exposure is rarely available in the public markets. 

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On 5/20/2021 at 3:25 PM, Gregmal said:

Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3706008-alico-announces-178-increase-in-dividend-additional-ranch-land-sales-and-update-on-esg-initiative

 

Well, there's most people's annual returns...inside a month, on a highly asymmetric investment. Not selling yet, still favorable outlook here and shares are cheap. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3706008-alico-announces-178-increase-in-dividend-additional-ranch-land-sales-and-update-on-esg-initiative

 

Well, there's most people's annual returns...inside a month, on a highly asymmetric investment. Not selling yet, still favorable outlook here and shares are cheap. 

 

Yeah that market reaction is pretty funny considering they had basically already pre-announced everything they said today. Maybe added some specifics but this “news” was out there

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4 hours ago, gfp said:

Yeah that market reaction is pretty funny considering they had basically already pre-announced everything they said today. Maybe added some specifics but this “news” was out there

 

Yea I think theres two reasons for that. 1) the company has been left for dead and 2) often with land sales, putting them under contract and closing them are not necessarily the same thing. You definitely dont get 100% credit in the public markets until the checks are cashed. 

 

Either way, glad to see people making money. If you think a 5% dividend yield, and ~70% of NAV is fairish value for a company in a stable/boring business, thats expected to grow earnings, continue paying down debt, and increasing dividends while basking in the Sun Belt growth story....well you've still got about 20% upside til that happens. The volume of late has been good, they've been doing IR work. Remy has stopped selling. And they've shown theyre willing to sell the land. All good stuff. 

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On 5/20/2021 at 12:25 PM, Gregmal said:

Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash.

Hey Greg- any chance you can point to a write up ? I checked out the May 2020 VIC already.  Thanks! 

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11 hours ago, rayfinkle said:

Hey Greg- any chance you can point to a write up ? I checked out the May 2020 VIC already.  Thanks! 

Hi Ray,

 

Thanks for mentioning the VIC writeup, I cant believe I hadn't seen it before but was a good read. I dont really think there's a specific writeup I can point to. I've followed the company for years and one of the beauties of a company like this is that its pretty static. Once you familiarize yourself with the assets there's not a whole lot of upkeep you need to do on your thesis outside of fairly simple stuff like listening/reading transcripts. What lead me to conclude this is now a good IRR type investment this winter and especially this spring was several things. 

 

1) Its failed to participate in any sort of appreciation seen by most assets/companies despite the fact that there hasn't been any value destruction here.

2) Management now has a multi year track record of solid decision making and is now starting to do IR work.

3) FL and Sun Belt RE, especially land, has gotten so hot its inevitable that it starts bleeding into this valuation. Because of 2) you can get confident that it will be capitalized on.

4) All else fails you have such a margin of safety(even still at $34 IMO) that its unlikely you lose anything but opportunity cost..which in a fickle market isnt too much of a concern to me. 

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A starting position in SOXQ, an ETF which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index.  I'm really bullish on the semiconductor industry for at least the next 18-24 months and think the index will do well.  I already own 2 of the components NVDA and the company I work for: ADI.   I like most of the companies on the index (except for Intel, which I'm not so sure of) and was having trouble picking just 1 or two more to invest in.  So the ETF it is.

 

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18 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Interesting - writer or buyer? and at what strike. Its quite amazing what he’s doing there - effectively has turned his company into a defacto BTC etf/proxy

 

Buyer. Way out of the money. Will add to this over time if BTC continues to rise.

It's "amazing" what he's done but I think it goes down in history as a remarkably stupid move. 

 

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