Jump to content

What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Eric, we both know BAC is almost a no brainer over the next 2 years.  I have about 20-25% of my portfolio in BAC common/warrants / options and would love to continue to add but trying to buy at the bottom of this sell-off.  I was lucky to buy near the bottom like yourself but I did not have the balls to go 100% of my portfolio at that price...  :)

 

Tks,

S

 

I am still waiting for BAC to drop into the $15.xx, everyone, be patient...

 

Tks,

S

 

Wow, and to think I waited for two years just to break that level.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just initiated a small starter position of Citi at $48.15.  It is currently 13% below TBV and 34% below book value.  CCAR results are just around the corner and I cannot wait for C to continue to repurchase a larger amount of their stock under TBV!!!

 

Tks,

S

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far I look like an idiot with citi.

I don't  understand why bac is trading at 12.5x earnings and citi is at 9.5.

I didn't think the market would wait till March 1st and then the banks would shoot up for ccar 3 years in  row.

I thought it would happen by now.

I'm ready for mid march when the dividend raise is announced and in April when citi can start buying back stock.

In the aftermarket it was trading at 15 percent discount to tangible book but it earned 8 percent last year and this year is 9 percent on tangible book.

The irr is well over 10 percent.

Interest rates are at zero and the 10 year treasury is at 2.6 and we are suppose to grow at 3 percent GDP according to Moynihan and other bank ceos with the biggest loan and deposit growth in years.

The risk premium with citi is about 800 basis points.

I feel like I'm living on an island and no one else sees this.

I'm not arguing it should be at 12.5x earnings like back but 9.5?

I don't get it. It should at least be at 11x earnings.

The bloody earnings rate for the investor is higher than the multiple.

And this is a company that earned 4.42 this year, projected by all analysts to earn 5 this year and 5.85 next year.

And a dta worth a third of the market cap.

That's part of being a value investor willing to look like you are on a deserted island.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far I look like an idiot with citi.

I don't  understand why bac is trading at 12.5x earnings and citi is at 9.5.

I didn't think the market would wait till March 1st and then the banks would shoot up for ccar 3 years in  row.

I thought it would happen by now.

I'm ready for mid march when the dividend raise is announced and in April when citi can start buying back stock.

In the aftermarket it was trading at 15 percent discount to tangible book but it earned 8 percent last year and this year is 9 percent on tangible book.

The irr is well over 10 percent.

Interest rates are at zero and the 10 year treasury is at 2.6 and we are suppose to grow at 3 percent GDP according to Moynihan and other bank ceos with the biggest loan and deposit growth in years.

The risk premium with citi is about 800 basis points.

I feel like I'm living on an island and no one else sees this.

I'm not arguing it should be at 12.5x earnings like back but 9.5?

I don't get it. It should at least be at 11x earnings.

The bloody earnings rate for the investor is higher than the multiple.

And this is a company that earned 4.42 this year, projected by all analysts to earn 5 this year and 5.85 next year.

And a dta worth a third of the market cap.

That's part of being a value investor willing to look like you are on a deserted island.

 

 

Citi has a much bigger presence in EM markets than the other big universal banks.

I think the Emerging Market 'crisis' is dragging down C. Investors/traders sell this because they are afraid of the EM exposure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They do have a bigger presence but so far I haven't heard of any impairments..

Their max loss to Argentina is less than a billion.

If this doesl turn into 97-98 again I can see that but it's a lot different now compared to then. Floating currencies, less external debt.

 

China just released their January pmi at 50.5. They are still expanding.

I think within 2 weeks we will shoot upward.

I plan to be better protected in the future though.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like cities max exposure to Argentina is 17 cents a share.

They have a lot more exposure to Brazil and Mexico.

That would be the time to get worried, if it spread.

 

My comment about it not lasting more than 2 weeks is speculation of course as psychology can feed on itself.

My earlier post was trying to wrap my head around the  25 percent discount to bac.

If there is contagion with em I suppose that discount is warranted.

Mexico seems to be doing quite well.

Anyone on thew board follow EM closely?

 

If so, what is the probability of contagion and things getting much worse?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...