rb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Added a bit to BRK.B today. - - - o 0 o - - - Not exactly a day here on CoBF like August 24th 2015, huh? [; - D] Aug 24, 2015 was a glorious day. I remember being in line at the Ministry of Transportation to renew my license plates and trading on my phone. But I was thinking the same. That it feels different this time around. Two reasons for that in my view. 1. Stocks were already very expensive. The recent drops haven't made them very cheap overall. 2. This feels like the "real one". I don't think this is just a dip. This is merciless selling and could go on for a while. It may be the time that the young 'uns learn what the stock market is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 You've got a feel for the market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 ... Aug 24, 2015 was a glorious day. I remember being in line at the Ministry of Transportation to renew my license plates and trading on my phone. But I was thinking the same. That it feels different this time around. Two reasons for that in my view. 1. Stocks were already very expensive. The recent drops haven't made them very cheap overall. 2. This feels like the "real one". I don't think this is just a dip. This is merciless selling and could go on for a while. It may be the time that the young 'uns learn what the stock market is all about. Crazy stuff to read, rb, It reminds a bit about when I was buying SAN at the day of the Brexit vote disclosure. With regard to this sell-off, - as always - time will tell. Personally, I think I've lost my reptile brain. I don't know where I've dropped it. No real mental reaction going on. Also for that, time will tell, if it's a bug or feature. If it's a bug, I'll start to search for that lost thingy. As investors, we have several not so pleasant things in front of us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfMeasure Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Hi HalfMeasure - I like them both. Re MO - its more diversified than PM - e.g. Anheuser holdings, wine, etc. - and its cannabis moves are interesting. RE PM - the currency impact is something I think about quite a bit and I like their reduced-risk products. Thanks Lance, appreciate the color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 AAPL and BPR Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Valium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Valium. LOL. That's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Valium. Might be a bit early. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 FWIW, I added to WMB, GOOG and FRPH and Fujimak (5965.T) a bit. Almost out of cash now. I haven’t got anything to sell either, since pretty much everything is in the hellhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Almost out of cash now. Also a bit early perhaps? The situation is interesting: there's a number of large (mega) cap good and great companies that are not very expensive. Some even cheap(ish). But also a lot of moaty companies still very highly valued. (That's just from the universe I track... no idea about the companies I don't track.) So on one hand, it would seem we should not get another 20+% drop but on another hand it would seem we could. FWIW, I think markets will rally after the year-end dumping of "losers" ends. So in January. But then there's politics, tariffs, etc., so my prediction is possibly not worth a share of BAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :) Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Almost out of cash now. Also a bit early perhaps? The situation is interesting: there's a number of large (mega) cap good and great companies that are not very expensive. Some even cheap(ish). But also a lot of moaty companies still very highly valued. (That's just from the universe I track... no idea about the companies I don't track.) So on one hand, it would seem we should not get another 20+% drop but on another hand it would seem we could. FWIW, I think markets will rally after the year-end dumping of "losers" ends. So in January. But then there's politics, tariffs, etc., so my prediction is possibly not worth a share of BAC. Yes, too early. however, the selling had been relentless, almost like October 2008. I think a lot of stocks are cheap, unless the economy falls apart. I don’t think that’s likely. I do agree that the selling has more to do with momentum than with fundamental issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :) Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? Nah, 12 pct FCFE yield mas o menos (they guide 1.5b FCF plus/minus 10 pct). Come mid 19 their leverage is on target and I expect a large payout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanielGMask Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :) Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? I’m not familiar with the company, but what about this trend? Icehouse > Sales change (2012-2017): -8.9% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.3 million > Market share: 0.6% Coors Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -11.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 15.9 million > Market share: 7.6% Miller Lite > Sales change (2012-2017): -12.3% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 12.8 million > Market share: 6.2% Keystone Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -15.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Ice > Sales change (2012-2017): -16.8% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.2 million > Market share: 0.6% Miller High Life > Sales change (2012-2017): -21.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -43.7% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 625,000 > Market share: 0.3% Miller Genuine Draft > Sales change (2012-2017): -50.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 680,000 > Market share: 0.3% Source: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/21/beers-americans-no-longer-drink-5/2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 There are now almost 7,000 microbreweries in the US https://www.brewbound.com/news/7000-breweries-operate-u-s-2018 accounting for about 12% of beer sales and growing by double digits. Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :) Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? I’m not familiar with the company, but what about this trend? Icehouse > Sales change (2012-2017): -8.9% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.3 million > Market share: 0.6% Coors Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -11.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 15.9 million > Market share: 7.6% Miller Lite > Sales change (2012-2017): -12.3% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 12.8 million > Market share: 6.2% Keystone Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -15.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Ice > Sales change (2012-2017): -16.8% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.2 million > Market share: 0.6% Miller High Life > Sales change (2012-2017): -21.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -43.7% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 625,000 > Market share: 0.3% Miller Genuine Draft > Sales change (2012-2017): -50.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 680,000 > Market share: 0.3% Source: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/21/beers-americans-no-longer-drink-5/2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :) Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? I’m not familiar with the company, but what about this trend? Icehouse > Sales change (2012-2017): -8.9% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.3 million > Market share: 0.6% Coors Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -11.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 15.9 million > Market share: 7.6% Miller Lite > Sales change (2012-2017): -12.3% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 12.8 million > Market share: 6.2% Keystone Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -15.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Ice > Sales change (2012-2017): -16.8% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.2 million > Market share: 0.6% Miller High Life > Sales change (2012-2017): -21.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -43.7% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 625,000 > Market share: 0.3% Miller Genuine Draft > Sales change (2012-2017): -50.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 680,000 > Market share: 0.3% Source: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/21/beers-americans-no-longer-drink-5/2/ Well, that is definately the bear case and somewhat consensus I think, but they've been good at making up for volume declines through economies of scale and pricing. Scale is what truly matters which is why M&A can create a lot of value for the big guys (basically Molson and AB InBev). Come a recession I think they'll do better than craft and perhaps they can pick some subscale brewers up on the cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I don’t think a recession can reverse the trend towards craft beer. These brands are dead. Maybe it’s my circles, but no one brings Miller or Bud to a party any more. There best bet is develop or buy craft beer brands themselves, but they don’t come cheap, but I agree they may become cheaper in a recession. The problem is that the fragmentation probably reduces the profitability of the business permanently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deepdive Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 My friends and I go for Blue Moon, Stella, Brooklyn Lager, and maybe a Guinness. I don't remember buying Coors or Bud. We are in our early 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Adding to Berkshire again this morning. Approximately $470 Billion market cap. Could see some opportunities if we really do enter a protracted bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Adding to Berkshire again this morning. Approximately $470 Billion market cap. Could see some opportunities if we really do enter a protracted bear I also got some for the first time in a very long time. Not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Adding to Berkshire again this morning. Approximately $470 Billion market cap. Could see some opportunities if we really do enter a protracted bear Buy BRK or buy banks/AAPL that BRK is holding/buying... Eh decisions, decisions. 8) Edit: just for fun, potentially interesting potentially buy list: AMCX, AAPL, BAC, BRK, DIS, EXPE, FB, FDX, GOOGL, IPGP, JPM, CVS, WBA, MSGN, NVDA, OTCM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 I used some more of the school $$$ to bump BRK.B up to 18% today. --- Oh, and I called the top back in November! (unfortunately as I was buying.) I'd like a segment on CNBC & some OPM. I'm all in with a purchase of CLB today. edit: also added some MO Jan 2021 $50 calls using the supposedly sacrosanct skool funds. The cash I have left is sacrosanct (no, really) and will be used for a bachelors degree unless BRK takes a big dive, in which case I'd probably add to the position & start busking to cover the missing cash ??? --- [[[ This should be a sufficient signal for ALL intelligent investors to marshal their cash for a huge downturn in the markets. ]]] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Anyone remember that Santa Claus rally we were supposed to have? Seems like the jolly fat guy just delivered a yuge lump of coal. Or is it lead? S&P is 6 points from bear market. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Anyone remember that Santa Claus rally we were supposed to have? Seems like the jolly fat guy just delivered a yuge lump of coal. Or is it lead? S&P is 6 points from bear market. Merry Christmas! It could be a present for those sitting on cash. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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