Castanza Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 BHC calls. This one looks like it's ready for a breakout. small spec position.... You have peaked my interest with this. Any quick insights you have about this company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 BHC calls. This one looks like it's ready for a breakout. small spec position.... You have peaked my interest with this. Any quick insights you have about this company? Nothing worthy of praise as far as info goes. 90% of my short term bullishness is for technical reasons. More or less this is a classic in favor, to out of favor, let the pendulum swing story. So as we all know, it's highly levered. Minor improvements in the business and or debt reduction greatly enhance the equity value. I give some weight to the fact Joe Papa came over when the stock was trading at higher levels($35 or so IIRC), and a lot of his compensation is tied to stock options north of $60. Its been quiet of the VRX/BHC front for a while now. It seems after the name change and some time passing that the shackles of negativity are slowly moving away from the company. So on a fundamental basis, I dont see the same overhangs I did a few years ago. Now look at the chart. This thing has run up to $25 or so several times, and then fallen back. But again, like the broader market, it is resilient and knocking on the door again. It's purgatory trading range has basically been $12-25 and I think having done its time in the penalty box and shown sustainability at the core business, it's ready to make a big move if we see one more solid earnings report(Feb20). I looked at the options and having the above outlook, the March options look quite cheap. You can go long a $24 or $25 call for $2. That strike gives you a built in stop loss should earnings suck or the shares pull back down from the high end of the current trading range. Whereas if this runs you got IMO at least $4-6 per share in upside. Given the setup I think the options are very mispriced, and as such, am willing to take a swing with a small spec position.(For me defined as .5% of portfolio or less. In this case it is less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Channelling my inner Boilermaker and selling a few Feb 8th 2019 expiry 200 strike put contracts on BRK.B for fiddy-cent (cue stock market collapse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I bought some Berkshire shares. Munich Re reported good reinsurance profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Bought some Hampton DeVille on BNN deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I bought some Berkshire shares. Munich Re reported good reinsurance profits. Charlie, Berkshire went under the 3 percent threshold on its position in Munich Re on December 16th 2015, and the stub was likely sold shortly afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 They are both in the reinsurance industry. I doubt Charlie was buying BRK for any Munich Re look-through. As you mention, BRK may not own any Munich Re anymore. BRK's most recent European insurance investment that I can remember was a major stake in Italy's Cattolica insurance group. I bought some Berkshire shares. Munich Re reported good reinsurance profits. Charlie, Berkshire went under the 3 percent threshold on its position in Munich Re on December 16th 2015, and the stub was likely sold shortly afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 These all expired worthless. Was able to get as much as $1.10 on Friday, hours before expiry. Channelling my inner Boilermaker and selling a few Feb 8th 2019 expiry 200 strike put contracts on BRK.B for fiddy-cent (cue stock market collapse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Thanks, gfp, Yes, I may have misinterpreted Charlie's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Very nice GFP! These all expired worthless. Was able to get as much as $1.10 on Friday, hours before expiry. Channelling my inner Boilermaker and selling a few Feb 8th 2019 expiry 200 strike put contracts on BRK.B for fiddy-cent (cue stock market collapse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 WFC is cheap, probably caused by negative press coverage about the outage. I added some on Friday. FWIW, I could still access my accounts, but it was slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 John Hjorth, I mentioned Munich Re results as an indicator of Berkshire´s next reinsurance results. The results should be good. :) Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Thank you for elaborating here, Charlie, -All good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 John Hjorth, I mentioned Munich Re results as an indicator of Berkshire´s next reinsurance results. The results should be good. :) Cheers! The reinsurer AXS and RE don’t look that great, they took quite a hit last quarter. I had positions in both of them and sold out a couple of days ago. I do agree that Münchener Rück‘s result look pretty good. We will see how BRK and FFH are doing. FWIW, I have reduced my FFH Position, but not because of their catastrophe risk, but because of concerns about their investment side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The other thing that could have happened was you bought more BRKB and there has never been a bad time in my investment career, since 1968, to buy BRKB. And if you already have enough BRKB you could just write covered calls for the next expiration date for about 1% premiums. Very nice GFP! These all expired worthless. Was able to get as much as $1.10 on Friday, hours before expiry. Channelling my inner Boilermaker and selling a few Feb 8th 2019 expiry 200 strike put contracts on BRK.B for fiddy-cent (cue stock market collapse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelj Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 TAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 TAP I did the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 TAP I did the same. What attracted you guys to this business? Just curious, I don't know anything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 What attracted you guys to this business? Just curious, I don't know anything about it. It's beer ;D Essentially branded consumer discretionary purchases. They have decent brands (Molson, Coors) and an established distribution network. It's pretty cheap and was 10% off today. While the business may go thru ups-and-downs, especially in terms of management's execution (as we are seeing with other CPG's like Kraft-Heinz), I think product demand will remain relatively more steady (compared to say, Tide detergent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It still blows my mind that so many people actually drink their shitty beer, with the huge amount great alternatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Isn't that why brands have value? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Isn't that why brands have value? It's surprising that crappy brands have value. 8) TAP has a bunch of brands that I have not tried, so above is just generic rejoinder. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartansaver Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It still blows my mind that so many people actually drink their shitty beer, with the huge amount great alternatives. The recent Bud-light commercials capture my taste on the subject (dilly dilly commercials where they make fun of fancy alternatives). I don't care much about the taste of a beer, and I'm fine with buying a cheap beer. Up to this point, I haven't had that aha moment where my taste-buds changed and I enjoy an IPA. I think that AB InBev and TAP do a decent job of capturing the market that is okay with simpler beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 What attracted you guys to this business? Just curious, I don't know anything about it. It's beer ;D Essentially branded consumer discretionary purchases. They have decent brands (Molson, Coors) and an established distribution network. It's pretty cheap and was 10% off today. While the business may go thru ups-and-downs, especially in terms of management's execution (as we are seeing with other CPG's like Kraft-Heinz), I think product demand will remain relatively more steady (compared to say, Tide detergent). So it's basically, multiple is low, they have scale, brands should have staying power. Was just curious if there was more than met the eye to the thesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 What attracted you guys to this business? Just curious, I don't know anything about it. It's beer ;D Essentially branded consumer discretionary purchases. They have decent brands (Molson, Coors) and an established distribution network. It's pretty cheap and was 10% off today. While the business may go thru ups-and-downs, especially in terms of management's execution (as we are seeing with other CPG's like Kraft-Heinz), I think product demand will remain relatively more steady (compared to say, Tide detergent). So it's basically, multiple is low, they have scale, brands should have staying power. Was just curious if there was more than met the eye to the thesis. In the alcoholic beverage segment, beer is losing market share to spirits and wine. Within the beer segment, TAP’s mass market brands are losing share share to craft beers. I think TAP represents a slow bleeding consumer franchise, somewhere in between a consumer staple and cigarettes, imo. The bleed is probably slow enough that an investment in equity makes sense at this point, especially since pricing holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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