Foreign Tuffett Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Added a little NVTA. First the VIC write up a couple days ago, now the coordinated SA piece, when once again these thick framed dimwits keep putting on the wrong Einhorn like “oh but the valuation! They lose money!” Short. As if there isn’t enough evidence to point towards this being a terrible short, they just keep banging their heads against the wall wondering why they can’t make money. I remember reading the same pitch verbatim about TDOC at $14... Andrew Left has this correct in his evaluation. Why is it a terrible short? I actually thought the Seeking Alpha article that moved the market today was quite well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Added a little NVTA. First the VIC write up a couple days ago, now the coordinated SA piece, when once again these thick framed dimwits keep putting on the wrong Einhorn like “oh but the valuation! They lose money!” Short. As if there isn’t enough evidence to point towards this being a terrible short, they just keep banging their heads against the wall wondering why they can’t make money. I remember reading the same pitch verbatim about TDOC at $14... Andrew Left has this correct in his evaluation. Why is it a terrible short? I actually thought the Seeking Alpha article that moved the market today was quite well done. There’s zero proprietary work for one. It’s basically just another “they don’t make money, issue shares, and seem promotional” piece. Which isn’t ideal, but at the same time, there is absolutely a flip side that justifies why some companies would be at that stage, and regardless, there’s certainly a market/appetite from investors. The gist of the thesis is basically it should be valued like peers and what if every investor wakes up tomorrow and decides they’re done. In other words a no catalyst investment that is basically reliant on macro factors abruptly deviating from the same course they’ve been on for a decade now. An Einhorn short basically. If you need a macro event to be right, well there’s better ways to play that.. Don’t get me wrong, it’s certaibly a very high risk investment, but when looking at it from a risk/reward, and especially from a “what stops it short term?” perspective; sorry, but it’s just another smart guy analyzing a growth company, oblivious to the bigger picture. TDOC, another high risk, dare I even say, shitty company with a great story and big revenue growth runway several years back was/is a good comparison. It’s also comparable to the bull thesis on Macy’s right now. Hey you’re probably right about the company but you have too many other things moving against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Added to EAF on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 GRIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 FRFHF. Trying for Swingtrade To $480+. I am thinking we are closer to the bottom here than a top. I do expect a book value loss this quarter. Smallish position, will add If we get closer to the 52w low. I don’t like the stock that much long term, but I do like the risk reward for a swingtrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shhughes1116 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 BNP Paribas, on Oct 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 CVET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 CVET Curious what made you go long. I learned about it by way of me taking my dog to the vet and everything form the appointment to meds was seamless. Really unsure of the price and chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Little more GRIF. Feeling like $36 is the new $35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 VIIX (Credit Suisse AG Nassau Velocity Short Term ETN 500 VIX Mid Term Future) Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Moar IVAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Cash. Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more. Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. Sold ~15% of the core put position today when VIX hit 20. Will probably let a bit more go if me move closer to 25, but still waiting for that elusive 30+ print on the VIX to signal panic to let the bulk of the position go. Repurchased these a few days back. Added more today. Still expecting a 30+ VIX move this year, but will keep trading the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 In short: The business solves a problem for its customers (vets) The end market is attractive (pet care) given its recession-resistance The valuation looks increasingly attractive given a price for the entire enterprise of $2.3 billion and unlevered free cash from the legacy Henry Schein business of about $150 million, giving us a 6.7% unlevered free cash yield on just Henry Schein. This effectively values Vets First Choice, which is why everyone was so excited about the stock in the first place, at zero. I've purchased twice now, once around $13 per share and again yesterday below $11. It's a small position for me given the leverage and somewhat limited free cash flow. In a downturn, they will generate cash from inventory liquidation, but still the free cash could be ugly and people who don't understand the business now really won't want to own it in a downturn. So, I've left some room to average down further because I think I could get a chance to. https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1080485861&serialid=LwV70A1WGcAVwyFsrunHo7%2BWJh%2FyveCGDQap19XIDWs%3D&cspId=1928917291656192000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 In short: The business solves a problem for its customers (vets) The end market is attractive (pet care) given its recession-resistance The valuation looks increasingly attractive given a price for the entire enterprise of $2.3 billion and unlevered free cash from the legacy Henry Schein business of about $150 million, giving us a 6.7% unlevered free cash yield on just Henry Schein. This effectively values Vets First Choice, which is why everyone was so excited about the stock in the first place, at zero. I've purchased twice now, once around $13 per share and again yesterday below $11. It's a small position for me given the leverage and somewhat limited free cash flow. In a downturn, they will generate cash from inventory liquidation, but still the free cash could be ugly and people who don't understand the business now really won't want to own it in a downturn. So, I've left some room to average down further because I think I could get a chance to. https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1080485861&serialid=LwV70A1WGcAVwyFsrunHo7%2BWJh%2FyveCGDQap19XIDWs%3D&cspId=1928917291656192000 To invert this, with CVET doing poorly, it seems that HSIC (from which CVET was spun off) dodged a bullet and ought to be a better business now. It seems reasonably valued too. I put it on my watch list together with CVET. I would be more inclined to buy HSIC here than CVET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 In short: The business solves a problem for its customers (vets) The end market is attractive (pet care) given its recession-resistance The valuation looks increasingly attractive given a price for the entire enterprise of $2.3 billion and unlevered free cash from the legacy Henry Schein business of about $150 million, giving us a 6.7% unlevered free cash yield on just Henry Schein. This effectively values Vets First Choice, which is why everyone was so excited about the stock in the first place, at zero. I've purchased twice now, once around $13 per share and again yesterday below $11. It's a small position for me given the leverage and somewhat limited free cash flow. In a downturn, they will generate cash from inventory liquidation, but still the free cash could be ugly and people who don't understand the business now really won't want to own it in a downturn. So, I've left some room to average down further because I think I could get a chance to. https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1080485861&serialid=LwV70A1WGcAVwyFsrunHo7%2BWJh%2FyveCGDQap19XIDWs%3D&cspId=1928917291656192000 Helpful and I'll continue watching. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Wrote WFC 47.5-strike Nov 15 expiration puts for $0.50 per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 ACHN. Domestic merger, small deal for buyer, two different CVR's that you get on the cheap and a $40m reverse termination fee on a $700m deal (on a net-cash basis). Might open a topic at some point about it - curious if anybody has thoughts about it. There could be some antitrust issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 HTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Little more GRIF. Feeling like $36 is the new $35. Same here, bought some more GRIF at a hair below $36. More thoughts on the GRIF thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 WFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Calls on HGV. Speculation, obviously, but I think the chances of a deal getting announced are relatively good. Blackstone knows the economics well and will be attracted to the ability to put significant capital to work at high returns, and Apollo being in the mix pushes the price up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 WFC Why now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 WFC Why now? Just a starter/foothold so I will pay attention and can get mailed copies of the reports. If I had to guess, I would expect Scharf to kind of clear the deck with expectations/problems/expenses after he has had a chance to get an inside look. That might be getting too cute (and the market probably expects that). I just keep ruminating on Munger's comments at the BRK A.M. and the fact that the god of skinny, quality-compounder, bros has like 98% of his DJCO portfolio (which is not constrained by size) in money center banks and this is clearly his favorite of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 added back into NFLX short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Bought more National Stock Yards (NSYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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