What are you buying today?

[SafetyinNumbers]

Also bought some $ATTO today

[Artha158]

Got some Imperial Brands y'day.

[kab60]

Some more Ulta yesterday (sold 25 pct. of ADS), St. James Place (LSE) and some more Cambria Automobiles the other day (this one is hard to accumulate...)

[Spekulatius]

CRBP

 

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.

[Gregmal]

CRBP

 

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.

 

Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others.

[Gregmal]

Restarted a little HHC. Replacing a lot of my momo and hot potato stuff with good old boring right now.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

CRBP

 

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.

 

Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others.

 

Thanks for the color. I have no idea what a Tier 4 brokerage is, but I suspect that these are the dinky outfits that recommend and pump microcaps? Anyways, the way I see it  CR P has maybe 2-3 quarter of cash left, which means that they probably raise in the next 3 month or 6 month at the very latest. Typically buying ahead of a secondary is not a winning proposition.

[Gregmal]

CRBP

 

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.

 

Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others.

 

Thanks for the color. I have no idea what a Tier 4 brokerage is, but I suspect that these are the dinky outfits that recommend and pump microcaps? Anyways, the way I see it  CR P has maybe 2-3 quarter of cash left, which means that they probably raise in the next 3 month or 6 month at the very latest. Typically buying ahead of a secondary is not a winning proposition.

 

Tier 4 example

http://www.teribuhl.com/2019/03/19/honigs-broker-dealer-laidlaw-target-of-fbi-investigation/

 

Good warning on CRBP

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245168-corbus-ties-suspect-investors-history-failed-clinical-trials-lenabasum

 

I have a bunch of accounts at a lot of different places either personally or for those I oversee. So occasionally the dirty wringer produces "sales leads" which I end up on. No joke I had a fellow maybe 4 years ago call me unsolicitedly and hard selling me some options strategy on....Corbus. At like $8. A few days later in went down like 50%.

 

I have nothing to add as to whether what the actual company is doing will bear fruit. But having been almost exclusively involved in seeking out and doing deep dives and short only candidates earlier in my career, I can tell you that many times, just using guilty by association with some of these names, is all you need to do(outside of securing a borrow and timing the short entry :P)

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Moderate adds to TPL, started DD today and just put another single family home under contract

 

I also added some DD at $65 and change today. Had bought a  2nd lot a few days ago, but sold it immediately flat when the tape turned soft. It looks like this stock is going to see $63 again in short order, but you never know.

 

Added a bit more DD today. I also added for the umpteenth time MEGACPO.MX. Starting to get towards my max. Position size here.

[hillfronter83]

I bought more BMY CVR.

[Lance]

SPG

 

Thanks

Lance

[Lance]

DAL

 

Thanks

Lance

[Artha158]

VIIX

[Spekulatius]

I bought more BMY CVR.

 

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.

What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now.

[Lance]

IMBBY and VIXY

 

 

Thanks

Lance

[writser]

I bought more BMY CVR.

 

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.

What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now.

 

For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here.

[Spekulatius]

I bought more BMY CVR.

 

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.

What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now.

 

For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here.

 

My own view of how management in large corporate settings works, has over the years dimmed enough that I assume that if there is a possibility to game an outcome, it will be gamed in all likelihood.

[hillfronter83]

I bought more BMY CVR.

 

I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value.

What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid  a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important  drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now.

 

For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here.

 

My own view of how management in large corporate settings works, has over the years dimmed enough that I assume that if there is a possibility to game an outcome, it will be gamed in all likelihood.

 

Don't disagree with risk from intentional delay. However in this case, they already filed NDA for ozanimod and its decision is due in a few months. Since CVR is tradable, i expect market'll react on ozanimod decision, which IMO is a high probability event.

[Spekulatius]

Bought back some recently trimmed CMCSA today. Down ~3.5% today, anyone knows the reason?

 

Anyways, the stock is surprisingly cheap still, trades at <8.5x Y2020 EBITDA. once they reach their leverage target next year, they can resume stock buybacks again. Lots to like - management track record, low leverage, broadband, theme parks and humming along, Telemundo and CNBC gaining market share over the years.

[boilermaker75]

Wrote HPQ 19-strike Nov 22 expiration puts for $0.35 per share--a risk arbitrage play.

 

Wrote some HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 puts for $0.40 per share.

 

Wrote some more HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 expiration puts and some 19.5-strike Dec 6 expiration puts.

[Gregmal]

Started a bit of CLXT

[SafetyinNumbers]

I bought some Arrow Exploration (AXL.V). It’s an oil producer in Colombia that emerged from reverse takeover / spin off from CNE.TO in November.

 

Given it’s a micro cap spinoff there could be some irrational selling going on.

 

Each Canacol share received .127 shares of AXL, so it’s a trivial amount for what is now a 35 cent stock. CNE shares trade at $4.40.

 

CNE valued each AXL share at US$0.885 each at the time of the spin and it’s trading so it’s down about 70% from that level in less than 6 months. Perhaps they were optimistic in how they valued it but it certainly has taken a haircut now.

 

Management owns 18% and cannot sell the majority shares for 18 months and the stock has to be above US$1.50.

 

EV is less than C$30m with 2P NPV at C$125m and the company is producing 1500 boe/d now and guiding to exit at 3000 boe/d. It’s production is tied to Brent pricing so it looks cheap on traditional oil company metrics.

 

I added a little more AXL.V today. I have been buying all of the way down so obviously my buying has not been predictive of future positive performance.

 

Reported Q3 and announced plans to pursue a strategic alternatives process.

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/28/1953814/0/en/Arrow-Exploration-Corp-Announces-Third-Quarter-2019-Financial-and-Operating-Results-and-Initiation-of-Strategic-Alternatives-Process.html#.XeB-cq5pVfM.twitter

 

I guess we'll see if there is a different price for private assets vs public markets in this case.

[Gregmal]

Got a smidge more of GRIF. Would buy more but it just doesnt seem like theres any to be had. Mainly it looks like shares are all dried up below $40. Heading into year end, with low floater, light volume, and other potential news, I like the setup.

[longlake95]

SNC - after it was dumped from the MSCI world index last week.

[Gregmal]

Started a bit of CLXT

 

Boom. Sold CLXT.

 

Gonna look to chuck the funds into some boring real estate company as the march to safety continues.