What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

Started venturing into SPCE with some puts.

[boilermaker75]

Wrote some BRKB 225-strike Jan 3 expiration puts earlier today for $1.02 per share.

[Spekulatius]

Bought some more DD (swapping some of my my CTVA sales proceeds I to this). One of my better ideas for 2020.

Feels like tax loss selling is causing the weakness.

[Gregmal]

Added a good amount of PCYO the past week, EZPW, added some CTO, got some GRIF today, and for shits, got into some $5 calls on TAST as there seems to be a reasonable chance this'll bounce over the next Q.

 

Like last year, dont think I really need to do very much in order to do very well in Q1.

[Sunrider]

Added a good amount of PCYO the past week, EZPW, added some CTO, got some GRIF today, and for shits, got into some $5 calls on TAST as there seems to be a reasonable chance this'll bounce over the next Q.

 

Like last year, dont think I really need to do very much in order to do very well in Q1.

 

What is your expectation for EZPW? Seems with Cohn back in charge and paying himself well, no incentive to common stock value? So it's cheap, but seems the market doesn't trust him on account of his past actions, and the financing last year was probably also so expensive because nobody trusts the guy.

Thanks!

[Gregmal]

Added a good amount of PCYO the past week, EZPW, added some CTO, got some GRIF today, and for shits, got into some $5 calls on TAST as there seems to be a reasonable chance this'll bounce over the next Q.

 

Like last year, dont think I really need to do very much in order to do very well in Q1.

 

What is your expectation for EZPW? Seems with Cohn back in charge and paying himself well, no incentive to common stock value? So it's cheap, but seems the market doesn't trust him on account of his past actions, and the financing last year was probably also so expensive because nobody trusts the guy.

Thanks!

 

I'd concur with that assessment. I think saying the bar is low here is an understatement. The guy is a world class scoundrel. I was absolutely floored by the stock awards they hand out as well. But at the current prices, I believe that is well reflected. This company, even with its mismanagement, hasn't spent a whole lot of time trading below a 7 handle. The Cohen thing I think really seemed to be the last straw for many people. So my feel there was that you had a point of capitulation. I certainly wouldn't expect improvement as far as governance goes, but the buyback is important and if used should put a floor under this. And then, again because expectations are so low, I think give this thing a pop once its confirmed they've actually been using it. For a company thats exceptionally cheap, that'll move the needle. My tipping point to jump in a little was the glorious public beating Aaron English put on these guys during the latest call. No I dont think it will change these scumbags, but I think at least temporarily, everyone kind of has an incentive to at least get this back to the pre Cohen announcement levels. Many times Ive found that these hucksters like to remain in the dark and control the narratives. When they get called out like this, sometimes, there may be enough of an ego involved that it compels them to make minor(and usually temporary) adjustments to save face a little bit.

[boilermaker75]

Wrote WFC 53-strike, Jan 10 expiration puts

[Lance]

Over the past two days I trimmed IAU and bought IRM, MAC, MCY, ORI, TCO and WPC then sold TCO on a small increase.

 

Thanks

Lance

[Spekulatius]

Over the past two days I trimmed IAU and bought IRM, MAC, MCY, ORI, TCO and WPC then sold TCO on a small increase.

 

Thanks

Lance

 

So with WPC, ORI and MCY, you are bullish on property insurers? ORI looks interesting based on valuation metrics. I have owned MCY before ( a long time ago) when it traded at book value. I used to have my car and property insurance with them when I lived in CA.

[Sunrider]

Added a good amount of PCYO the past week, EZPW, added some CTO, got some GRIF today, and for shits, got into some $5 calls on TAST as there seems to be a reasonable chance this'll bounce over the next Q.

 

Like last year, dont think I really need to do very much in order to do very well in Q1.

 

What is your expectation for EZPW? Seems with Cohn back in charge and paying himself well, no incentive to common stock value? So it's cheap, but seems the market doesn't trust him on account of his past actions, and the financing last year was probably also so expensive because nobody trusts the guy.

Thanks!

 

I'd concur with that assessment. I think saying the bar is low here is an understatement. The guy is a world class scoundrel. I was absolutely floored by the stock awards they hand out as well. But at the current prices, I believe that is well reflected. This company, even with its mismanagement, hasn't spent a whole lot of time trading below a 7 handle. The Cohen thing I think really seemed to be the last straw for many people. So my feel there was that you had a point of capitulation. I certainly wouldn't expect improvement as far as governance goes, but the buyback is important and if used should put a floor under this. And then, again because expectations are so low, I think give this thing a pop once its confirmed they've actually been using it. For a company thats exceptionally cheap, that'll move the needle. My tipping point to jump in a little was the glorious public beating Aaron English put on these guys during the latest call. No I dont think it will change these scumbags, but I think at least temporarily, everyone kind of has an incentive to at least get this back to the pre Cohen announcement levels. Many times Ive found that these hucksters like to remain in the dark and control the narratives. When they get called out like this, sometimes, there may be enough of an ego involved that it compels them to make minor(and usually temporary) adjustments to save face a little bit.

 

Thanks ... I still have a small position (bag holder) ... and have been in two minds on whether to give this another month or just cut it. Simply don’t trust these guys to not do something stupid.

[sleepydragon]

GD and BPR

[Gregmal]

Bought a little more GRIF. If nothing more, because the divergence of GRIF's value relative to the general market melt up, and the lack of SWAN stocks currently available.

[Broeb22]

Bought some GDDY and KAR.

[Spekulatius]

Bought some ATTO as a rebound play.

[SafetyinNumbers]

Bought some ATTO as a rebound play.

 

I posted a comment on this article today:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314926-atento-deserves-your-attention

 

I think this week's selling is coming from RSU's issued 30 months ago that vested on Jan 2. Last year it was a similar story and the stock declined 14% in 5 days following the vesting of RSUs on a lot of volume and this year it's also down about 14% on significant volume in the 4 days since vesting. Last year ATTO bounced back 13% the following week. Not sure if we'll see a replay but it's a reasonable speculation.

[Spekulatius]

Bought some ATTO as a rebound play.

 

I posted a comment on this article today:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314926-atento-deserves-your-attention

 

I think this week's selling is coming from RSU's issued 30 months ago that vested on Jan 2. Last year it was a similar story and the stock declined 14% in 5 days following the vesting of RSUs on a lot of volume and this year it's also down about 14% on significant volume in the 4 days since vesting. Last year ATTO bounced back 13% the following week. Not sure if we'll see a replay but it's a reasonable speculation.

 

Thanks good comment. It does seem selling on no news and typically I don’t think that indiscriminate sellers are that well informed.

[SafetyinNumbers]

Bought some ATTO as a rebound play.

 

I posted a comment on this article today:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314926-atento-deserves-your-attention

 

I think this week's selling is coming from RSU's issued 30 months ago that vested on Jan 2. Last year it was a similar story and the stock declined 14% in 5 days following the vesting of RSUs on a lot of volume and this year it's also down about 14% on significant volume in the 4 days since vesting. Last year ATTO bounced back 13% the following week. Not sure if we'll see a replay but it's a reasonable speculation.

 

Thanks good comment. It does seem selling on no news and typically I don’t think that indiscriminate sellers are that well informed.

 

Thank you.

 

They also filed yesterday for a shareholder meeting to be held on Feb 4 to authorize the BOD to pursue a premium (or discount) tender for up to 30% of the shares at their discretion over the next 5 years.

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1606457/000119312520003870/0001193125-20-003870-index.htm

 

More details in the article above as well.

 

[Gregmal]

Been trading FVE. Maybe something interesting for you special situation folks after restructuring.

[Castanza]

Adding to $DISCA, $BP, $WMB, $T

[spartansaver]

Been trading FVE. Maybe something interesting for you special situation folks after restructuring.

 

It's wild the influence that some bloggers have. It got posted on Clark Street yesterday midday after it had been posted on Twitter the night before by @valuewacatalyst and it's up nearly 60%.

[Gregmal]

Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

[JRM]

Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

 

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

[Gregmal]

Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

 

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

 

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

[Spekulatius]

Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

 

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

 

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

 

All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials.

[Gregmal]

Hedged out the bulk of my GM position. Lightened up in high $30's a few months ago and have locked into a trade that makes this now or never with capped downside. Incompetent management and naive shareholders are a recipe for basically what this company has been since its IPO. Things are not dandy when your stock has gone no where, dividend hasn't been raised in years, buybacks nonexistent, and ratings agencies considering your debt-junk. Yet some continue to tell themselves things are great; probably fueled by Buffett inspired "value investor" wisdom.

 

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise.

 

While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run...

 

All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials.

 

For sure, with regard to the sentiment, but 2019 was yet another record year for auto sales(in $ figures). The problem is they are terrible allocators. E&P companies are probably better peers than the malls. They make tons of money in good years but give none of it back to shareholders because dumb career industry folks run the companies based on out dated and inefficient theories for "what you're supposed to do". Then during the bad years... shit gets ugly.

 

As my bearishness on the overall market has grown, GM has started to bother me more. If this is how they perform in a record market, I probably dont want to be around for when things stop going perfectly.