What are you buying today?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

XOM

 

Thanks

Lance

 

Added to XOM

 

Over the last week, have been rolling out of 10% or so I've my Gazprom position to buy XOM with the proceeds.

 

Plan to continue to do so if OGZPY continues to significantly outperform.

[jgyetzer]

CMCSA

 

I am probably being overconfident, but the market seems to keep offering favorable opportunities to buy broadband providers based upon performance of other, lower margin segments (i.e. video)

[Castanza]

Starter position PBCT

[boilermaker75]

Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63.

[Lance]

Wrote puts on GEO.

 

Thanks

Lance

[Guest eatliftinvestgolf]

Added to my WFC position.

[Lance]

DD, TCO and WMB

 

Thanks

Lance

[Gregmal]

bought back some msgn

[Guest cherzeca]

AMC, BCS, AGN

 

I was looking at AMC $5 call 1/21/22 last price $2.  seems awfully cheap but cant pull trigger.  earnings CC end of February

[boilermaker75]

Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63.

 

Wrote some more 63-strike, Jan 31 expiration puts for $0.60 per share.

[no_free_lunch]

bought back some msgn

 

I have to admit, it is looking very cheap at these levels.  Something like 5-6x fcf if I remember the numbers correctly.  Do you have any insight into what has sparked the selloff?

[KJP]

bought back some msgn

 

I have to admit, it is looking very cheap at these levels.  Something like 5-6x fcf if I remember the numbers correctly.  Do you have any insight into what has sparked the selloff?

 

Look at MSGN sub losses over the last few quarters and look at, for example, Comcast's recent commentary on its expected video sub losses in 2020.  Then look at how MSGN earns revenue versus how it pays MSG for rights and see how MSGN would be squeezed in the event continuing sub losses overwhelm the per-sub price escalators built into its contracts with video providers.  You can see a scenario in which FCF isn't what it used to be.  Of course, there are also potential upside scenarios as well.

[Gregmal]

Basically, theres a huge concentration of subs with Comcast and Altice/Optimum. Both of which have potential renewal issues.

 

Much has been discussed on the MSGN thread previously, and now on top of that, you have the fact that the company was just willing to repurchase 25% of the shares at 16.75 and still have a sizable buyback in place, plus the resources to do much more.

 

My investment confidence however still doesnt really involve sub counts or decline rates, although admittedly, that will drive this thing short term. But on an absolutely basis, the rights to televise Knicks and Ranger games is worth something, and theres no way its worth less than what the Cincinnati Reds or whomever else are worth. To someone like Amazon the acquisition is a rounding error but could be reasonably impactful to certain of their own ventures. Or, it can be reacquired by the MSG stub which is was spun out from. A lot of ways to win. In the meantime all the FCF will go toward repurchases and debt reduction.

[cknucks]

BRK.B...have to be nearing 1.3x on Q4 book value once that gets reported.

[Gregmal]

Did some repositioning.

 

Finished exiting GM stock and transferred into slightly larger share equivalent $30 calls. Closed my GM puts as well. Its either gonna go or its not. My stop loss built in with the strike, and after about a half decade, if it doesnt perk up Im fine having been wrong and calling it a day here.

 

Exited 30% of BX and replaced it with BRK.B and SPG.

 

Reduced some margin in the process.

 

 

[Cardboard]

Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020.

[Guest cherzeca]

Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020.

 

aren't these puts expensive?  can you be a value investor paying a premium for safety?

[stahleyp]

Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020.

 

Predicting a 50% drop on S&P 500 and 80% drop on Nasdaq? ???

[LC]

I think more likely is a stagnant or slowly declining market, I've been selling calls.

[boilermaker75]

I think more likely is a stagnant or slowly declining market, I've been selling calls.

 

LC,

 

Are these covered calls?

 

Also if you don't mind saying, on what stocks?

 

Thanks,

 

Boiler

[LC]

Yes mostly covered calls on the full position in the account (e.g. if I have 950 shares I would write 10 contracts and cover the remainder with margin)

 

Wrote on about 1/3 of my portfolio on:

Altria/Philip Morris, AT&T, Visa, Iron Mtn

 

2-3 month expiration, was paid about 2-4%. OOM strikes by 5-7%. I plan on closing the contracts about a week prior to any ex-dividend dates where there is a high (judgmental) probability of being called. Which as of right now does not appear likely.

 

And then I'll roll over the contracts again for another few months, unless sales & earnings really seem to be catching up with valuations.

 

I've also been pretty lax with my documentation here. Sold MMM yesterday (ugh - industrial activity looks weak, glad to come away with more than I put in but still disappointing); Sold Waste Mgmt a few days ago; Sold ADS a few weeks ago; Sold Paypal (rolled into Visa). Proceeds went into opening a position in AT&T, paying down some margin, adding about equally to the names mentioned above; and one tiny corporate event. I'm fully invested but looking to hedge via covered calls on more of my portfolio if I can get good prices & low risk of execution.

 

The other thing is I have relatively substantial 401k/stock grants which are invested in SPY index and a certain high-flying tech company. So I am looking to maintain about 30-50% total upside exposure from these two positions. Even there I am debating re-allocating the 401K outside of SPY and into something more defensive, but my options are limited and that has historically been a bad idea.

[Castanza]

Wrote Covered Put Feb 28

 

CMCSA $42 at 0.43

 

T $36 for 0.27

 

Wrote Covered Call Feb 28

 

CSCO $50 for 0.53

[gfp]

Just curious - when you say covered put are you short those stocks or are you just planning to keep the cash available through expiry?

 

Wrote Covered Put Feb 28

 

CMCSA $42 at 0.43

 

T $36 for 0.27

 

Wrote Covered Call Feb 28

 

CSCO $50 for 0.53

[Castanza]

Just curious - when you say covered put are you short those stocks or are you just planning to keep the cash available through expiry?

 

Wrote Covered Put Feb 28

 

CMCSA $42 at 0.43

 

T $36 for 0.27

 

Wrote Covered Call Feb 28

 

CSCO $50 for 0.53

 

Cash looking to enter/add to position

[Lance]

WMB

 

Thanks

Lance