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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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more GNCMA (actually trade around this position a bit because it is so large) and  some WDAY short term options at opening. Options already a double but looking for a tad bit more.  ;)

 

I too got some GNCMA & AIQ - my thought was those were sold off as part of the NASDAQ going on sale today....

 

HOWEVER - I am not sure I am comfortable enough to have a big position in GNCMA -  just looking at the 10 year chart I could just see that not a lot of value has been created, although that is not to say may be we are at the point where a lot of value could be realized.

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THRX seems a bit too complicated for me.  At the high level it's an amazing story, you have Seth Klarman and GSK holding huge positions.  GSK will be paying out royalties to THRX so they know the business better than anyone.  Both parties have purchased shares at higher prices.  You also have a spinoff to potentially unlock some value.  So at that 50,000 ft level it looks great.

 

However, when you dig into the sales estimates for the COPD drugs they are all over the map.  Peak sales from $1B to $4B.  At $4B it's a steal and will probably double or more, it will go down to the teens at $1B.  So for someone outside of the sector it is a tough call.  I guess, in either scenario it doesn't seem likely to be a 0, maybe a 50% loss assuming something doesn't go horribly wrong with the drugs.

 

It seems you basically just have to trust the major holders to buy into it.  Honestly that's probably as good a thesis as any but I generally like to have a better feel for the fundamentals.  Am I missing anything?

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My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D

 

How do you come to that number? I can only "see" that it has a high chance of falling further, but i don`t "see" yet how far. At 20 there is a massive support, but that doesn`t mean it drops that low.

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