ourkid8 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Cutting the dividend is definitely already priced into the stock. If there is irrational selling when the dividend cut is announced, that's a no brainer buying opportunity again. Continue to keep cash on hand. I think BAC got to like 40% of TBV in 2011 (the good times when they were stroking all those settlement checks), so we could get some more pain (probably when they cut the dividend next week), but what can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 PCYO, WM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 PCYO, WM Any plans to add more to office REITs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I owned WM for a while - Greg, can you share your short thesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Sold 75% of Cloudflare and reallocated this into Akamai. How do you think about the threat from competitors like Fastly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 PCYO, WM Any plans to add more to office REITs? Yes, I bought more ESRT today as well, just dont want to seem like too much of a blowhard posting every single day the same name. I would clarify, that I dont necessarily "love" office. Push comes to shove I prefer retail. But the prices right now are so outrageous that in specific instances I dont think it matters. Pupil posted a good piece in the VNO thread yesterday. It is consistent with what Ive been hearing from people as well. The private market is in a totally different space than the public, and Ive talked to numerous folks who said the private market people are coming to play in the public markets because the deals are just too good. ESRT I think is an easy way to play office/retail on a small scale. Backstopped by a trophy asset; one that could be vacant and still sell basically at the EV. But I think in general, people are wayyy too occupied with the virus and almost everyone is missing the fact that it will be the definition of short term. A year, maybe two out, we will be back to normal. Dont think so? Look at all the places, not just US, once the restrictions are lifted. Everyone goes back out, yearning for their normal life. Heck even some started prior to the end of government interference. The death of office/retail is greatly exaggerated, but even if it isn't, being in the right places at $200 sq/ft likely pays off really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I owned WM for a while - Greg, can you share your short thesis? I dont have anything sophisticated. Its a great, irreplaceable business, definition of moaty, that Ive always looked at but put off buying. Its recession proof, and has a solid balance sheet. Seems to be managed well. Its a very unsexy stock, but one I have a hard time consistently looking at and thinking I know better than to not own it. I take your comment as you no longer own it? What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I owned WM for a while - Greg, can you share your short thesis? I dont have anything sophisticated. Its a great, irreplaceable business, definition of moaty, that Ive always looked at but put off buying. Its recession proof, and has a solid balance sheet. Seems to be managed well. Its a very unsexy stock, but one I have a hard time consistently looking at and thinking I know better than to not own it. I take your comment as you no longer own it? What are your thoughts? Agree on all your points - addition of relatively slow growth (at least in terms of pricing - in the very long term, volume I think it will never stop growing as we are a trash-producing species) . Bill Larson's 13F is what got me interested at first, years ago. I sold it back in Mar/Apr (around $92/sh IIRC) on relative valuation, was buying other stocks (as I'm sure you were too) which dropped in price more significantly and had/have higher growth prospects. I agree it does look interesting now that the market has run up again, and WM price has not recovered (as much). Thanks for the reminder & sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Sold 75% of Cloudflare and reallocated this into Akamai. How do you think about the threat from competitors like Fastly? Akamai is industry leader particularly for large multinationals, governments, etc. I liken this business to security services, and prefer Akamai for a few reasons: 1) They are the oldest CDN and have the largest customers - for these customers, Akamai's price is a drop in the bucket so to speak. Cloudflare and other smaller players cater to small/med size customers for whom these prices are a higher % of their total costs. 2) This is a business where the longer you are ingrained, the less likely you are to switch. Particularly for the larger clients who have more to lose. It is the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". 3) Akamai has never had an outage, has I believe the most servers worldwide, and is consistently a top performer: https://www.cdnperf.com/ If you google things like "akamai vs. cloudflare, fastly vs. cloudflare, akamai vs. fastly, etc." you will find a lot of good discussion from techies (once u sort past the marketing websites) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 PNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 WFC, BAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nspo Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 C, AGM, LYG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Every Banana Counts Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 MKL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 bought some BRK calls. That 5% of Apple keeps getting bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 AFL starter - seems cheap, divy looks solid, Q1 looked pretty good This sector does make me a bit nervous right now. Premiums collection could get hammered if unemployment remains high for a long time. Anyone else look at this lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 AFL starter - seems cheap, divy looks solid, Q1 looked pretty good This sector does make me a bit nervous right now. Premiums collection could get hammered if unemployment remains high for a long time. Anyone else look at this lately? I like AFL a lot too. I owned it a long time ago & sold for a nice gain, then forgot about it until recently. A decade ago, they were getting nearly 80% of their pre-tax earnings from Japan. They made their bones selling supplemental cancer insurance policies in the only country to have 2 nukes dropped on it. For years, I was perplexed by the fact that they've bombarded the US with TV ads & didn't seem to be making inroads but the geographic revenue mix has started skewing towards the US market. I also like that their payouts are fixed & non-negotiable, unlike P & C & health insurers (correct me if I'm wrong here) & they do cover payouts for covid. Most premiums are made through payroll deduction so yeah, the threat to near term earnings is real. They could also experience problems with their investment portfolio in a serious deflationary environment. As per the March 2020 conference call: "we have identified approximately $1.4 billion of middle market loans, most exposed in the current environment and have stress tested $1.3 billion of transitional real estate. While this economic crisis is unprecedented and predicting the trajectory of the economy and recovery is difficult, we have taken a pretty bearish view in our credit stress test. For instance, we have assumed an extremely severe second quarter drop in economic activity of 30% to 50% with just a modest pickup through year-end; revenue declines of 30% to 80%, depending on the specific sector and company; losses on our most sensitive below investment-grade and middle-market loans of up to 20%; oil prices staying below $20 for most of the year as demand slowly recovers. Let me emphasize that the impacts to the global and U.S. economy are going to be highly volatile and very difficult to predict. We will continue to evaluate as more economic information becomes available, along with the impacts to the sectors and companies in our portfolio. Our loss analysis estimates approximately $680 million in pre-tax potential losses. This equates to approximately 100 basis points of potential losses on our total fixed maturity and loan portfolios, of which fixed maturity corporates are 72 basis points." --- Here's a very good report from 2012 that lays out every aspect of how they operate(d). https://www.aflac.com/us/en/docs/investors/fabbook2012_06222012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 AFL starter - seems cheap, divy looks solid, Q1 looked pretty good This sector does make me a bit nervous right now. Premiums collection could get hammered if unemployment remains high for a long time. Anyone else look at this lately? I like AFL a lot too. I owned it a long time ago & sold for a nice gain, then forgot about it until recently. A decade ago, they were getting nearly 80% of their pre-tax earnings from Japan. They made their bones selling supplemental cancer insurance policies in the only country to have 2 nukes dropped on it. For years, I was perplexed by the fact that they've bombarded the US with TV ads & didn't seem to be making inroads but the geographic revenue mix has started skewing towards the US market. I also like that their payouts are fixed & non-negotiable, unlike P & C & health insurers (correct me if I'm wrong here) & they do cover payouts for covid. Most premiums are made through payroll deduction so yeah, the threat to near term earnings is real. They could also experience problems with their investment portfolio in a serious deflationary environment. As per the March 2020 conference call: "we have identified approximately $1.4 billion of middle market loans, most exposed in the current environment and have stress tested $1.3 billion of transitional real estate. While this economic crisis is unprecedented and predicting the trajectory of the economy and recovery is difficult, we have taken a pretty bearish view in our credit stress test. For instance, we have assumed an extremely severe second quarter drop in economic activity of 30% to 50% with just a modest pickup through year-end; revenue declines of 30% to 80%, depending on the specific sector and company; losses on our most sensitive below investment-grade and middle-market loans of up to 20%; oil prices staying below $20 for most of the year as demand slowly recovers. Let me emphasize that the impacts to the global and U.S. economy are going to be highly volatile and very difficult to predict. We will continue to evaluate as more economic information becomes available, along with the impacts to the sectors and companies in our portfolio. Our loss analysis estimates approximately $680 million in pre-tax potential losses. This equates to approximately 100 basis points of potential losses on our total fixed maturity and loan portfolios, of which fixed maturity corporates are 72 basis points." --- Here's a very good report from 2012 that lays out every aspect of how they operate(d). https://www.aflac.com/us/en/docs/investors/fabbook2012_06222012.pdf Thanks for sharing your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 BRK, USB, BAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Bought some V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Bought some SPAQ warrants. No reason other than I felt like gambling. Come on now RobinHooders, do your thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
york Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 ITP - Intertape Polymer Steady business... Should get back to the $17 range pretty easy from here ($13.50) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shhughes1116 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 SDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 SDS. yup. x2 (joke intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 SDS. yup. x2 (joke intended) Probably good timing, though I’m no fan of inverse/levered ETFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 Bought more GDC.TO today... Genesis is a land owner and home developer in Metro Calgary.. Calgary detached house price as well as the volume are bouncing back quickly.. https://www.creb.com/Housing_Statistics/Daily_Housing_Summary/?tab=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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