valueinvestor Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again! I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap. I didn't realize SE had earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 GDYN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again! I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap. I didn't realize SE had earnings. Not PE but rather owner’s earnings - how much cash flow can I sustainably take from the business over its lifetime? Optically it has no earnings but looking at the business it seems they are under earning. They can actually generate a profit this year, but I believe that they chose to invest in their moat. Which is about right, as they mentioned they want to “break even” by 2020. Here’s the unit economics. It takes $6 to acquire a customer. Customer orders on average 3.6 times per month and average spend per order is $16. Hence, customer orders $60 per month and if we assume take rate is 10% - they’re being paid back customer acquisition cost in little over a month. Why would you want to generate a profit now? Once they make a profit - I think the huge returns are too late, as it becomes a mature company. Only thing that destroys this is interest rates/deflation on a valuation basis, but I believe they can fund growth from their cash flow if they wanted, hence it’s a temporary problem. It’s similar to Zozo and other e-com in Japan where they did relatively well considering the economy they were operating in where it had deflation or as some call it - the lost decade. Since I always have more capital coming in - I can always average down whenever that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Thanks for clarifying the unit economics. Yup completely agree with you. By the time Fed raises, hopefully Shopee becomes a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arski Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Bought recently some TPL, EPM, EXPR, ALPC, UVE & CIH Everyone's thoughts are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 ZM, PTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Bought some SE. Hat tip to valueinvestor. You've definitely got a very unique approach and respectable track record with these sort of names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Park Aerospace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgyetzer Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 NTDOY, LBRDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Last week added to: ATCO, PCYO, RTX, BAC, WFC, INTC, and started new 3% position AAPL This morning started positions in ESRT, PGRE, VNO. Still cheap with the vaccine news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D Highly recommended. I bought one in October of 2019. It has been a godsend. My wife and I spent just about all our free time out on Lake Winnipesaukee this spring, summer, and fall. A boat is great for social distancing. Also in case Biden gets any crazy gun control passed I lost all of my guns in a tragic boating incident this past summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 SAP.to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D There s a good saying, "if it drives, flies, floats, or fucks, rent it"... That said, I totally agree with rkbabang as a boat owner. Expensive, but totally worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Haha. Maybe I will try renting one first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D There s a good saying, "if it drives, flies, floats, or fucks, rent it"... That said, I totally agree with rkbabang as a boat owner. Expensive, but totally worth it. Apparently NBA, NFL, and MLB coaches will literally tell their athletes this. It is probably the best advice one can give in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D There s a good saying, "if it drives, flies, floats, or fucks, rent it"... That said, I totally agree with rkbabang as a boat owner. Expensive, but totally worth it. Maybe from a money point of view, but the only thing on that list that I rent are things that fly. Sometimes it's better to own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Read the Footnotes Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D Highly recommended. I bought one in October of 2019. It has been a godsend. My wife and I spent just about all our free time out on Lake Winnipesaukee this spring, summer, and fall. A boat is great for social distancing. Also in case Biden gets any crazy gun control passed I lost all of my guns in a tragic boating incident this past summer. CorpRaider and rkbabang, could you suggest a specific ticker . . . er, I mean model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I'll get a boat but I want to how to swim first... :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Haha. Maybe I will try renting one first. Which one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D Highly recommended. I bought one in October of 2019. It has been a godsend. My wife and I spent just about all our free time out on Lake Winnipesaukee this spring, summer, and fall. A boat is great for social distancing. Also in case Biden gets any crazy gun control passed I lost all of my guns in a tragic boating incident this past summer. CorpRaider and rkbabang, could you suggest a specific ticker . . . er, I mean model? $MCFT sunk today -6.8%. Obviously a WFH stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Jokes aside, I added back $FAF today. There is always something in the doghouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 A boat? ;D There s a good saying, "if it drives, flies, floats, or fucks, rent it"... That said, I totally agree with rkbabang as a boat owner. Expensive, but totally worth it. Buddy of mine says that BOAT stands for Bust Out Another Thousand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I doubt there isn't a boat owner that hasn't heard the old joke, "A boat is a hole in the water you try to fill up with money". Gotta say there is a lot of truth in that, especially in Canada where the season is short. After boating since I was a kid and four boats I am now a retired boater. PS My next boat was going to be named "WOFTAM" * * Waste Of F**king Time And Money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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