bathtime Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Bought NKLA puts. Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99. Curious what date/strike? Had some Dec 11 $25s in my cross hairs today but held off as $2 for 2 weeks seemed a tad steep. I did the Jan 15 30-strike puts. I’m not an expert with options. I read today that 160m shares come out of lockup on Dec. 1, so I put on a small trade. Yes, premium so steep it’s hard to put on a bigger position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 PYCO, thanks Gregmal. GBTC, as a hedge against not having GBTC. Premium dropped as low as 7-8% this morning. TSLA Jan 2022 puts, as a hedge against my disappointment if TSLA collapses and I don’t participate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 No problem lol. PCYO and several other smaller semi liquid names Ive noticed have unusual selling activity. Ive put some sucker bids in. SWKH especially as that one can get fat fingered pretty easily and I'd love to make a quick 10-20% just playing market maker on a holiday shortened trading day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just made MKL a 5% position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I've seen quite a bit of crazy price action in the $500M to $5,000M type market cap companies related to "insert 2020 hype trend here" Incredible. Reminds me of the Crypto / Cannabis fever in 2017, but a lot more widespread to a LOT more sectors and to more "Quality" companies. There's a stat out there something about growth outperforming value YTD, but even more pronounced is the type of companies outperforming and not what you'd expect coming out of a recession... 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Guess I'll have to sit out the mania 8) this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Bitcoin is just under its 2017 all time high again right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Bitcoin is just under its 2017 all time high again right now. Was referring more to the derivative of bitcoin (e.g. stocks) who did a "corporate strategy shift" to blockchain.. Many of these companies went up 2-4x in a matter of weeks upon whatever PR Hive Blockchain Technologies LTD is a perfect example. It soared 220% in debut of trading. https://www.cantechletter.com/2017/09/hive-blockchain-soars-220-trading-debut/ Here are some other "blockchain" names to name a few, there are many like this: Victory Square Technologies Liberty Leaf Holdings Datametrx AI Atlas Cloud Enterprises I'd be happy to name the MJ companies, but you can take a look at Aurora Cannabis Inc stock price to name 1./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Bitcoin is just under its 2017 all time high again right now. Was referring more to the derivative of bitcoin (e.g. stocks) who did a "corporate strategy shift" to blockchain.. Many of these companies went up 2-4x in a matter of weeks upon whatever PR Hive Blockchain Technologies LTD is a perfect example. It soared 220% in debut of trading. https://www.cantechletter.com/2017/09/hive-blockchain-soars-220-trading-debut/ Here are some other "blockchain" names to name a few, there are many like this: Victory Square Technologies Liberty Leaf Holdings Datametrx AI Atlas Cloud Enterprises I'd be happy to name the MJ companies, but you can take a look at Aurora Cannabis Inc stock price to name 1./ No need, you are correct, I remember any company that mentioned "blockchain" shooting up. And the MJ companies as well. There of course will be real crypto and MJ stock investments (I own AYR Strategies), but that year was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perulv Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 SIMO - Greenblatt/ Magic formula type semiconductor stock. Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way? SIMO’s memory controller business is a much better business than MU, imo, because there is less pricing fluctuation and it is fabless. Gross margins are fairly stable around 50%, so it’s not as good as a CPU or analog business, but much better than totally commoditized segments like memory. I can start a thread and write a few lines, but my thesis isn’t deep: it’s just an OK to good and somewhat lumpy business that is cheep. Every time I look at SIMO, I think "why is't this priced higher?". I first bought some shares of it in 2017, at $42. My "analysis" back then was (I wrote it down) : "Looks like a solid company. Makes money, has no debt, is in a market that has a future. Is the market leader?". Today I still agree with my thesis, and now it is priced at $39 ??? In a crazy market where "everything" is priced to perfection, I just don't get why this has been more or less flat for five years. My main reason for not buying some more SIMO is that often when I think Mr. Market is wrong, it turns out there is some valid reason for the price being what it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longnose Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 SIMO - Greenblatt/ Magic formula type semiconductor stock. Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way? SIMO’s memory controller business is a much better business than MU, imo, because there is less pricing fluctuation and it is fabless. Gross margins are fairly stable around 50%, so it’s not as good as a CPU or analog business, but much better than totally commoditized segments like memory. I can start a thread and write a few lines, but my thesis isn’t deep: it’s just an OK to good and somewhat lumpy business that is cheep. Every time I look at SIMO, I think "why is't this priced higher?". I first bought some shares of it in 2017, at $42. My "analysis" back then was (I wrote it down) : "Looks like a solid company. Makes money, has no debt, is in a market that has a future. Is the market leader?". Today I still agree with my thesis, and now it is priced at $39 ??? In a crazy market where "everything" is priced to perfection, I just don't get why this has been more or less flat for five years. My main reason for not buying some more SIMO is that often when I think Mr. Market is wrong, it turns out there is some valid reason for the price being what it is... Not sure my comments will be that constructive but like you I look at SIMO periodically. Most times my thesis is about the same as yours. I've come to the conclusion that SIMO's just not growing very fast. Revenue has been near flat from 2017 till now. Margins have slimmed up a bit. I would bet they are looking for the next leap in growth. I hold MU as well. Sometime I wonder if SIMO is, in Pabrai's terms a "hidden compounder" If you purchased MU in the bottom of a cycle and held for more than 10 years MU compounds north of 20% per year through its cyclicality. I wonder if SIMO being a supplier of the semi conductor industry has similar traits over very long periods of time. My big thought would be what is the moat here? can it be sustained for 10 years? I dont know all the ins and outs of creating semiconductor controllers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Also swapped some RBACU into CFIIU. Big moves! CFIIU to merge with View, shares up 15%. Spac-mania continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Added a few more GEOS, SWKH, OPK calls, sold a few more PSTH puts, and started some DKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 AIV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 INMD, OTCM nspo, what's your take on INMD and their devices? I saw Ibex has it as a top holding, and I respect their research. However, management looks a bit sketchy, as elaborated on in this short piece: http://www.mavalue.org/research/inmd-dont-get-your-face-burned-off/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Bought some Suncorio. This one is due for a big re-rating. Gasoline price going up. Western Canada egress improving with Line 3 and TMX construction on-going. Gulf Coast refineries starved for heavy with Venezuela and Mexico production way down. Really short term: Opec+ should extend existing cuts into Q1 or weak demand season today. This is a risk but, fundamentals mid-term still fine. Would also like to think that UAE and Saudi should solve differences easier than Saudi and Russia back in March and even they quickly addressed after fiasco. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Added a bit of NOC on recent weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts. Sheet, man. I guess you know what I did with a nice chunk of my position today then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts. Sheet, man. I guess you know what I did with a nice chunk of my position today then.... Thanks for reminding me. I guess 15% in 6 round trip is the same as 90% or something like. Plus, you don't get mad at your stock not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Senvest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Every Banana Counts Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 FRFHF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Added 1/3 short position in LMND after seeing my small short be very much worthless. Not sure what Motley Fool sees in this that is so transcending of AI/ML that Geico or Progressive don't already have or can't buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Took down some PTICU IPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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