Fahrweid Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan) Going big on your first post! Welcome to the club :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fahrweid Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan) Going big on your first post! Welcome to the club :) Thank you, much appreciated :) True that, I like cloning great Investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GME. ;) Just a few shares in the 70s as an option on volatility. Mark Cuban made some interesting points on the WSB AMA this morning. What points did you find interesting? Less his logic and more that he was encouraging them to HODL even after the big price drop today. Which will give them the motivation to continue to try to pump it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 GME. ;) Just a few shares in the 70s as an option on volatility. Mark Cuban made some interesting points on the WSB AMA this morning. What points did you find interesting? Less his logic and more that he was encouraging them to HODL even after the big price drop today. Which will give them the motivation to continue to try to pump it. I wish we had current short interest data that we could trust. Hard to have conviction without that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattR Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan) Not a 10% position for me, but I also bought it. Great company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 NWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 NWN Wow, at a 5-yr low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Yea, seems delightfully boring way to make 5-7%/year, quasi bond / widows and orphan type stock. Why is it down 40% in the past year and at 2010 prices. This is much more than XLU. I’m assuming it’s a “natural gas is going away” sell-off, but is there something more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Yea, seems delightfully boring way to make 5-7%/year, quasi bond / widows and orphan type stock. Why is it down 40% in the past year and at 2010 prices. This is much more than XLU. I’m assuming it’s a “natural gas is going away” sell-off, but is there something more Beyond that, their debt maturity schedule is not protected against the inflation/high-interest rate scenario. They have also been printing shares. I haven't looked far back, but assuming company DNA has been consistent, these issues were probably there in the past too. I understand these two issues don't matter to a lot of folks but just wanted to share my perspective. Also, Seattle recently banned use of natural gas for new commercial and apartment buildings taller than three stories and replacement heating systems in older buildings: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-city-council-passes-measure-to-end-most-natural-gas-use-in-commercial-buildings-and-some-apartments/ I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon and Washington states or other NW cities follow with some type of restriction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cameronfen Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Topicus Although it’s likely going lower in the short term seems like a pretty good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Topicus Although it’s likely going lower in the short term seems like a pretty good deal. I am interested in TOI, but wonder if you notice this section in page 14 of the prospectus which mentions a EUR$200M drawdown of the credit facility prior to the completion of spin-off? Maybe I understood it wrong, but that would make the EV even higher than implied in the 2020Q3 financials. 38x EV/LTM FCF @$59 share price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balaparavi Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan) Did you buy the ADR shares (SHIOF) or the ones trading in Japan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Also, Seattle recently banned use of natural gas for new commercial and apartment buildings taller than three stories and replacement heating systems in older buildings: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-city-council-passes-measure-to-end-most-natural-gas-use-in-commercial-buildings-and-some-apartments/ I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon and Washington states or other NW cities follow with some type of restriction. Wow that's insane! I didn't believe you until I read the article, hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fahrweid Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Full 10% new Position in Shinoken Group Co Ltd. 8909 (Japan) Did you buy the ADR shares (SHIOF) or the ones trading in Japan? I bought the ones in japan. (8909) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie2013 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Bought APHA/Sold TLRY short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Yea, seems delightfully boring way to make 5-7%/year, quasi bond / widows and orphan type stock. Why is it down 40% in the past year and at 2010 prices. This is much more than XLU. I’m assuming it’s a “natural gas is going away” sell-off, but is there something more so just glancing at the financials over 2010-2019 years: Revenue / share: $30--->$25 Operating income: $6--->$4.8 NI : $2.7-->$2.4 Divvy 0.43 / q to 0.48 / q it doesn't seem to be growing at all, whereas utilities index (and of course Berkshire Energy) are actually growing. with an additional 10 mins of work it seems like the big underperformance is warranted. Any thoughts Castanza? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 More FFH.TO. It went from a 1% to 10% position over past few weeks. It is getting kind of stupid now but maybe I am missing something. There are underlying securities are doing so well, even BB while down from the highs is more than a double from where it was last time book was reported. Even if they did 0 hedging on BB FFH is cheap cheap cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Yea, seems delightfully boring way to make 5-7%/year, quasi bond / widows and orphan type stock. Why is it down 40% in the past year and at 2010 prices. This is much more than XLU. I’m assuming it’s a “natural gas is going away” sell-off, but is there something more so just glancing at the financials over 2010-2019 years: Revenue / share: $30--->$25 Operating income: $6--->$4.8 NI : $2.7-->$2.4 Divvy 0.43 / q to 0.48 / q it doesn't seem to be growing at all, whereas utilities index (and of course Berkshire Energy) are actually growing. with an additional 10 mins of work it seems like the big underperformance is warranted. Any thoughts Castanza? Sorry, should have prefaced that this was a watch position. The 10 year low and RNG approval this July (Oregon SB98) caught my attention, along with their move into water utilities. But as LearningMachine pointed out, the share dilution (1%) yearly since 2013 (as far back as I looked) is unsettling. I think the affects of Seattle banning nat gas in certain new construction are still unknown. @LearningMachine, where did you find the info on interest rates and their lack of protection if you don't mind sharing. This area of the country is interesting regarding new energy regulations and hopefully it presents some opportunities. I agree that this is not great at current prices. Might revisit if this continues to go lower though. Latest slide deck https://s23.q4cdn.com/611156738/files/doc_presentations/2020/Sept-IR-Deck_Final.pdf?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cameronfen Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Topicus Although it’s likely going lower in the short term seems like a pretty good deal. I am interested in TOI, but wonder if you notice this section in page 14 of the prospectus which mentions a EUR$200M drawdown of the credit facility prior to the completion of spin-off? Maybe I understood it wrong, but that would make the EV even higher than implied in the 2020Q3 financials. 38x EV/LTM FCF @$59 share price. I did not notice that. What is your FCF number at LTM? I think their Dec 2019 quarter FCF is relatively anemic, I get around 32x FCF after adjusting for the debt and doing LTM (net debt, preferred, and the dividend you mentioned). The number I get is 27x when I do 9 months CF annualized. But maybe I did something wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 @LearningMachine, where did you find the info on interest rates and their lack of protection if you don't mind sharing. LearningMachine is somewhat obsessed with the risk of rolling over debt at higher coupons and has a much different than market view of interest rates. I think most would look at the debt stack here and conclude the opposite. NWN's lowest coupon is 2.82% and highest coupon is 9.0%. Its spreads range from 86 - 150 bps and prices on the bonds range from $101 to $144 because of the well above market coupons. Maturities are well laddered. About 60% matures in 10 years or more. The coupons over the next few years are 9%, 3.1%, 3.5%, 5.6%, 7.7%, 6.5% , 7.0%, 3.2% , 7.0% (that gets you to 2027). I would wager with 90% probability that interest cost will decrease for this AA rated regulated utility company, if not significantly. I admittedly don't know how passing on interest cost/savings to customers works at utilites There is a remote chance he is right and these are below market when they roll, but this is a tail macro scenario that applies to all companies with debt that isn't super long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 LearningMachine is somewhat obsessed with the risk of rolling over debt at higher coupons and has a much different than market view of interest rates. This is not a fully accurate statement of my view. A more accurate statement would be that I would like to make sure I'm covered for the probability that inflation/interest-rates will sneak up on us by making sure debt maturities are much longer term. If the probability doesn't come through, it should still be a reasonable investment. If probability comes through, it should be a reasonable investment then also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 this company has a WA maturity of 16.5 years and a weighted average coupon of 4.5% and is a low spread IG issuer. the weighted average coupon for debt expiring in the next 10 years is 4.9%. I stand by my characterization of your macro view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 @LearningMachine, where did you find the info on interest rates and their lack of protection if you don't mind sharing. Castanza, I found the maturity schedule in their annual report, page 109: https://s23.q4cdn.com/611156738/files/annual/716f1951-3453-912b-2656-5c75ca7f5fa0.PDF. In today's environment of low interest rates, utilities should be able to have much longer term maturity at low interest rates to protect the shareholders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 this company has a WA maturity of 16.5 years and a weighted average coupon of 4.5% and is a low spread IG issuer. If I look at page 109 of their annual report, I get about 55% of debt due within 10 years and a weighted maturity of 13.29 years. Please see https://s23.q4cdn.com/611156738/files/annual/716f1951-3453-912b-2656-5c75ca7f5fa0.PDF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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