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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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T (as in AT&T)

 

7% dividend, stock buybacks, debt paydown, trading for somewhere around 8-9x fcf.  Yes the business is stagnant but they own HBO max and that is actually growing fast.  To tie to current trends, it is an inflation resistant investment.

 

Preach.

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SE, SNC

 

Is the music still playing? I almost sold SE this week, but then I checked my notes and the revenue growth and had to postpone the decision...

 

I did napkin math a while ago with 60%+ downside. However they are pushing into Brazil, which gave me an idea to SOP valuation.

 

What’s the value of Shopee Singapore, Shopee Malaysia and so forth. Paints a different picture. With that being said. I’m ready for a 60% drawdown. Rather hoping for it. Only reason why l bought is unsophisticated -  I don’t have any ideas. As soon as one comes up, I’ll exit fully and plow in there.

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Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

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Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

 

I thought you might like that one ;)

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Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  ;D ;D ;D

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Lumen (LUMN)

 

Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?

 

Michael Burry likes the stock.

 

This article from Seeking Alpha and the discussion which follows lays out most of the bullish and bearish arguments https://seekingalpha.com/article/4405414-lumen-reports-solid-fourth-quarter

 

Bears see declining revenue, lots of stock compensation for management, some still butt hurt over dividend cut awhile back after management indicated it was safe.

 

On the positive side for me

 

Lumen generates quite a bit of cash flow that it's using to pay down debt substantially. That's what they said they were going to do when they cut the dividend.

 

A well covered dividend north of 8%.

 

Michael Burry's involvement helps me convince myself that I'm not just being a misguided yield whore.

 

Value investor, Mason Hawkins, has it as his largest position across his Longleaf funds. He's underwater having owned it since 2017. He met with Lumen management in December and added to his position. FWIW his performance has been grim as it has for many real value managers.

 

There's a wide discrepancy between what believers and unbelievers see as true value for this one. I'm choosing to see the glass half full. A bit less than 4% position for me.

 

 

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Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

 

I thought you might like that one ;)

 

 

I forgot who recommended it, was it you? If so thanks for the suggestion, I really liked this one.

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at these level? curious about your thesis.

 

I've been watching the Company for 5-6 years but never invested in it.  But the new capital allocation strategy is a very big game-changer if you run the numbers on it.

 

I think the decision to fully reinvest all of their free cash flow completely changes the valuation math if one believes they can do it.

 

And these guys have the track record to do it successfully.  We'll see - it might not work as well in practice as on paper.

 

Bill

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