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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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Picked up some Fortis

May I ask what value do you see in Fortis (FTS)?  I see a very solid 4% yielder with 6% annual growth in the foreseeable future.  Not bad, but nearly-as-solid yield plays like TC Energy is yielding close to 6% with similar growth.

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Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.

 

Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.

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Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.

 

Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.

 

Interesting idea! Here's my brother in Fort Worth taking advantage of his new ice bath...

File_000_55.jpeg.92e03177818b5243134018569f7cfe80.jpeg

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Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.

 

Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.

 

Due to Covid, houses with swimming pools are selling much faster as nobody dare to use ymca’s pools. Many homeowners are also building new swimming pools.

However, there is a lot of service providers in this industry. The biggest cost of maintaining a swimming pool is electricity, so utility companies love them

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I wonder how the recent Texas winter storm would affect the home insurance companies?

 

 

yeah that was my initial direction with home insurance companies first...I still think the insurers are going to be impacted by this event negatively, IMO...Damages are estimated to be north $18B 2nd highest in TX. Most of the claims are going to be related to water damages i.e. dominated by water claims. Based on those estimates this puts them on the 2nd costliest catastrophe, next to huricane Ike in 2008 the damage costs were a whopping $21.5B according to these guys https://www.iii.org/

 

Of the top insurers, StateFarm is the leader in Texas, then Allstate. at least on my part i'm not able to see their prices on an incline for the time being because typically in the immediate term, insurers price of the stock declines, normally because the damages are assessed and insurers EPS's are adjusted downward for the next few weeks, months but once the payout claims begin to kick in then their premium begins to rise and the stock price tends to rise along reaching higher highs.

 

With this winter storm impact, besides Texas, hardest hit states include, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee .I personally don't have analysis on these states in terms insurers market share...but it may be worth a look. let's say (hypothetically speaking here) Statefarm is a dominant player in all of the hardest hit states, than that will move the needle for the stock IMO once the payout claims begin to kick and the rebound etc.

 

 

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Isn’t State Farm is a mutual? owned by its policy holders ; there is not publicly traded stock, right?

State Farm is a mutual but it has a dominant presence which is very relevant for competitors and an argument could be built that they are sacrificing profit at the expense of underwriting standards (policy holders (owners) don't seem to mind) and have an unusual bundling advantage due to scale and scope.

State Farm is unusual and there may be something to learn.

The video is dated but the underlying questions remain.

When Benjamin Franklin set up an insurance operation in Philadelphia, it was a mutual-type of organization.

https://fortune.com/company/state-farm-insurance-cos/fortune500/

---) back to what are you buying?

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Lumen (LUMN)

 

Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?

 

Hey, here's a podcast episode going into the details of the company and the investment case. Basically its just a really cheap telecom company with 100-200% upside and a heavily incentivized CEO to unlock that value.

 

 

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Lumen (LUMN)

 

Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?

 

Hey, here's a podcast episode going into the details of the company and the investment case. Basically its just a really cheap telecom company with 100-200% upside and a heavily incentivized CEO to unlock that value.

 

 

Thanks for the podcast link. This is a very informative discussion about Lumen (LUMN) that starts with the merger of Century Link and Level 3 in 2017.

 

Good listen!

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Covered a Tesla short.  I do not have diamond hands.

 

It's fascinating to watch my own psychology, fighting the urge to cover my (miniscule) TSLA short. I had no problem with the paper loss when the stock hit $890. Now that I have a small gain (a smaller total amount than the previous paper loss), I am tempted to cover, even though my thesis was that the stock would pull back at least to the $500-550 range at some point.

 

What's wrong with taking a profit now? With this small trade it doesn't matter, but getting into the habit of tolerating large downside (in terms of P/L), but not allowing the upside to play out, seems like a bad strategy overall.

 

 

 

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I opened the short position at the close when they joined the S&P at 695 / share.  I added to the short from time to time to end up with an average basis of about 836.  I don't want to hold large short positions in individual stocks and much prefer to be short an index or ETF.  Obviously I still think Tesla is valued far too richly but I am happy to close out the risk for now.  I would not be surprised at all if Tesla continued down much lower.

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Wildbrain

 

As a connoisseur of children's programming, I was shocked to learn how many brands and titles these guys own.

 

I'm in WLDBF too, was gonna see if there was a thread and if not start one when I get time.

They own 80% of Peanuts among others and have a really interesting vertical integration from content development through consumer products sales. 

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