Ice77 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Wildbrain As a connoisseur of children's programming, I was shocked to learn how many brands and titles these guys own. I'm in WLDBF too, was gonna see if there was a thread and if not start one when I get time. They own 80% of Peanuts among others and have a really interesting vertical integration from content development through consumer products sales. Yep .. a really compelling monetisation story backed by strong execution (former Marvel executive), solid cash flows, really attractive multiple and lots of great kids content that is in demand by Netflix, DreamWorks and AppleTV+ besides one of the largest presence on YT. And a tight float to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sethatk Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Wildbrain As a connoisseur of children's programming, I was shocked to learn how many brands and titles these guys own. I'm in WLDBF too, was gonna see if there was a thread and if not start one when I get time. They own 80% of Peanuts among others and have a really interesting vertical integration from content development through consumer products sales. Yep .. a really compelling monetisation story backed by strong execution (former Marvel executive), solid cash flows, really attractive multiple and lots of great kids content that is in demand by Netflix, DreamWorks and AppleTV+ besides one of the largest presence on YT. And a tight float to boot. I like the runway here for sure. Kids content much better for product sales. Their YouTube channels do insane numbers. I like the CEO's focus on quality over quantity for new content creation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Sold Jun 18th 2021 22.5 strike Puts on PSTH at $2.00 and $2.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Facebook - $256 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueventures Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I like Wildbrain too, Old West's Q4 letter had a helpful write-up. Wildbrain posted a strong Q2, but my main concern is the leverage ratio. While it's improving (they plan to bring it down to the mid-4x level by end of their Fiscal 2022), it's still quite high. Do you see this as a concern? (And agree we should start a separate thread on this!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I opened the short position at the close when they joined the S&P at 695 / share. I added to the short from time to time to end up with an average basis of about 836. I don't want to hold large short positions in individual stocks and much prefer to be short an index or ETF. Obviously I still think Tesla is valued far too richly but I am happy to close out the risk for now. I would not be surprised at all if Tesla continued down much lower. Thanks for sharing your thought process. Congrats on some (quick) nice gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice77 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I like Wildbrain too, Old West's Q4 letter had a helpful write-up. Wildbrain posted a strong Q2, but my main concern is the leverage ratio. While it's improving (they plan to bring it down to the mid-4x level by end of their Fiscal 2022), it's still quite high. Do you see this as a concern? (And agree we should start a separate thread on this!) Their operating cash flow run-rate is ~$100m while interest paid on LT debt is a third of that. Not too bad. The leverage covenant is at 6.75 so they are within that for now and with the leverage expected to fall to 4s it should be fine. Their term facility doesn't mature until end 2023. They also have a pretty large shareholder who might be a saviour potentially if things require it. They can always pare down some less interesting parts of the library to manage liquidity issues if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sethatk Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I like Wildbrain too, Old West's Q4 letter had a helpful write-up. Wildbrain posted a strong Q2, but my main concern is the leverage ratio. While it's improving (they plan to bring it down to the mid-4x level by end of their Fiscal 2022), it's still quite high. Do you see this as a concern? (And agree we should start a separate thread on this!) I think management will execute. With the cheap money abound, I'm not overly concerned about the debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Interesting pitch on A Walkers pod. I followed Iconix for a while. I do like the content "studios/labels" (relative to their prices). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Added a touch more ATTO. A full position for me but I trade around the edges. I can't see a specific reason for the sell off but it is up a lot this year and some fund might be looking to take profits. They report next Wednesday night with the conference call on Thursday morning (Mar 4) at 10 am. At the very least we should have analyst estimates increased post report as all of the analysts have been restricted because of a debt refinancing since they pre-reported better than expected revenues and EBITDA. Consensus 2021 EBITDA is $186.5m and they reported an EBITDA range of $50-55m for Q4. That should lift consensus above $200m. At 5% cc revenue growth and 14% margins, 2021E EBITDA would be $217m. They pre-reported margins of 14-14.5% for Q420 so it doesn't seem like a big stretch to assume that for the full year. Each point of margin adds ~$15m to EBITDA. At $22.50, the company is trading at 4.6x EV/EBITDA on current consensus 2021E EBITDA. If consensus jumps to $217, at 4.6x, the stock would trade at $30.50. The beauty of leverage and only 16.3m shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. I am a valueHODLer here until the strategic sale of the company in 2022 or 2023. Peers trade 8-15x EBITDA. If a sale could be based on 2023E estimates, assuming the same sales growth and a lift of EBITDA margins to 14.5% or the half way point of guidance. We could have a selling price of $90+ based on the low end of the comp range at 8x. Still a long way to go from here of course but I think it's important to understand the roadmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Covered a Tesla short. I do not have diamond hands. So soon? I can't sell, I bought my $200/$400 Puts around $825, and am barely showing a profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Altus Midstream (ALTS). First ever dividend ex-date is Friday, $1.50 quarterly (>10% yield as a c-corp). Brand new pipeline assets in the Permian. May put together a write-up, but the thesis is pretty straightforward. Forgot to mention, most of the pipelines are part of JVs and partnership agreements, and Apache owns 79% of ALTM so I think there are possibilities for strategic transactions in the future. Either that or Apache dumps its stake and crushes the share price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Bought Facebook at 258.88 and Verizon at 57.09 Lets go team value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sethatk Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Added to DFH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarganaga Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Altria (MO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 BRKB & Chevron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 SE with my SNC Lavalin Proceeds - but I think net still same exposure still the same. I was 150% long, now just 100% long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Technip Energies (h/t Clark Street) SNC-Lavalin Here and there over the last month: Altria, Berry Global, Lockheed Martin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Growth stocks: A bit of AMZN (which I sold previously at lower levels ) and a bit of FROG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 VZ, MRK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 BERY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 INDT, the volume is still so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Bought FB and SRE today. SRE is a well managed utility that I have bought a few times over the year. It trades a t the lower end of its historical valuation range and should be a good low risk trade for 10-15% upside with little risk to principle or longer term hold depending on how things develop. Always liked the idea of owning SRE given the TX utility and exposure to LNG / Mexico growth stories, but never did more than a superficial look due to the CA wildfire noise. Has that been addressed at this point in the wake of PG&E? How do you get comfortable? SRE never had an issue that caused a wildfire. EIX had some smaller issues but never to the scale of PCG. SRE is the best run of the three (by far) then EIX and last PCG. Adding a few more SRE shares. Results came out and headline numbers look good. 10-k size is 77MB :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmac42600 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Wildbrain As a connoisseur of children's programming, I was shocked to learn how many brands and titles these guys own. I'm in WLDBF too, was gonna see if there was a thread and if not start one when I get time. They own 80% of Peanuts among others and have a really interesting vertical integration from content development through consumer products sales. Yep .. a really compelling monetisation story backed by strong execution (former Marvel executive), solid cash flows, really attractive multiple and lots of great kids content that is in demand by Netflix, DreamWorks and AppleTV+ besides one of the largest presence on YT. And a tight float to boot. I like the runway here for sure. Kids content much better for product sales. Their YouTube channels do insane numbers. I like the CEO's focus on quality over quantity for new content creation. Do you guys know where I can find a write-up or can you start a thread on the company? Always interested in Canadian small-caps. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 I believe there is a thread on DHX media, which is now Wild Brain. Not sure how up to date it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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