fareastwarriors Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, rkbabang said: Everyone seems to be buying BABA. I bought more of something almost as risky. BTC I know, I know, Munger likes one and hates the other. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Long BTC! I have been averaging down on BTC since Elon's tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, Xerxes said: John, i must say, i was a bit surprised to see you start a position on BAM. I always saw you as sticking with the devil-that-you know-like story (yr long term holding on BRK). That said, glad to see you joining BAM. Xerxes, I've been long BAM since the old format BAM website [and the quarterly reports] showed BAM AUM 130 B. [<- That is actually some time ago!] Never, ever sold one share, no matter what. Perhaps I should have the inner parts of my head examined meticously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Bought some BABA, PCYO, CIBR, and a tiny bit of AYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 12:58 PM, Gregmal said: sold remainder MX. Go private at $29. $26 is good enough for me. Rebought some MX. ~21.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 (edited) TYL Sizable TAM (company estimates $18B at recent call) providing SaaS to small & medium sized governmental agencies, many of which are still operating on systems that were written in dead languages, and are still accessed using old green screen CRT's. Rip & replace prospects. Just completed the purchase of NIC which should give them a leg up on targeting larger organizations. This is the biggest acquisition they've ever done and it's being funded with a combination of cash on hand & debt issuance. They have a history of slamming down debt quickly. Slowly converting clients from perpetual on site licenses to subscription based solutions. Governmental agencies are notoriously slow to adopt new fangled stuff. Partnered with AWS. Margins steadily increasing as they achieve more scale with "off the shelf" software. Maintenance is a huge portion of revenues. R & D significantly below industry averages. Great FCF. Got hit by ransomware last September but it appears to have only affected internal operations / support capabilities (phones, email, etc.), but didn't infect their clients operations. They fixed things quickly (probably by paying the ransom) and subsequently have begun hardening their systems (effectiveness remains to be seen). Estimated losses from business disruption range from $1.5m to $4m for the quarter. This and the inability to attract talent are the 2 biggest threats, IMO. Definitely not cheap, but I love the offerings & can't resist a business with "switching costs". I funded the purchase with proceeds from the sale of GPC & am still maintaining a 20ish% sack of FOMO cash. I'm not looking to get rich quick on this and plan on holding for the next decade or more. Roast my shallow assed dive. Edited May 15, 2021 by DooDiligence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 hours ago, DooDiligence said: TYL Slowly converting clients from perpetual on site licenses to subscription based solutions. Governmental agencies are notoriously slow to adopt new fangled stuff. Partnered with AWS. Margins steadily increasing as they achieve more scale with "off the shelf" software. Maintenance is a huge portion of revenues. R & D significantly below industry averages. Great FCF. Roast my shallow assed dive. I've been tracking TYL for a while looking to buy but shy to pull the trigger at these valuations. Few comments: I like software that they have in place. That will provide a stable revenue/profit base for years. However, I think their margins will start compressing and there will be opportunities to buy it cheaper. Maybe 50% cheaper than it is today. TYL bought Socrata in 2018 and the platform is clunky and somewhat outdated by 2021 standards. Underinvestment in R&D clearly shows. Partnering with AWS is nice but really is not distinguishing. AWS will partner with anyone as their margins are close to 90% and they sell AWS and don't have to worry about the low margins on services. In many cases AWS will partner with several vendors bidding on the same contract and just go with the winner. ACN, BAH, Deloitte et. al have been making massive inroads into state and local. State and local in the US is not a sophisticated buyer at all (as compared to the Federal gov't) and high margins are very common. This naturally attracts competition. ACN has been extremely aggressive at developing and partnering to develop pseudo-products for digitization (and digitalization), modernization, etc. Deloitte has been somewhat aggressive buying innoWake few years back. The buying cycle is about 1-3 years for state and local so I think 2021-2022 we will start seeing results of other consulting firms entering the market. If I remember correctly, ACN partners with TYL but that's an interesting relationship. Some of the other partners are low quality staff augmentation shops that only exist because of all the small business requirements. At some point, low staff quality shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 I would buy BAH before I would buy TYL. BAH is more federal government consulting , I think @Inofeisone gave some interesting insight that they can leverage this to get more business from states and cities. BAH is a consulting business model that in some way looks similar like my cherished defense contractor stocks, but perhaps with better organic growth prospects. BAH stock has seen some multiple expansion but it is not close to being valued like TYL (for good reasons) but if they can compete against them in the future, this could become a different story. It is a great business as the business relationships last often many decades. That reminds me to do more work on BAH (I put it in the maybe pile a while ago.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 25 minutes ago, lnofeisone said: I've been tracking TYL for a while looking to buy but shy to pull the trigger at these valuations. Few comments: I like software that they have in place. That will provide a stable revenue/profit base for years. However, I think their margins will start compressing and there will be opportunities to buy it cheaper. Maybe 50% cheaper than it is today. TYL bought Socrata in 2018 and the platform is clunky and somewhat outdated by 2021 standards. Underinvestment in R&D clearly shows. Partnering with AWS is nice but really is not distinguishing. AWS will partner with anyone as their margins are close to 90% and they sell AWS and don't have to worry about the low margins on services. In many cases AWS will partner with several vendors bidding on the same contract and just go with the winner. ACN, BAH, Deloitte et. al have been making massive inroads into state and local. State and local in the US is not a sophisticated buyer at all (as compared to the Federal gov't) and high margins are very common. This naturally attracts competition. ACN has been extremely aggressive at developing and partnering to develop pseudo-products for digitization (and digitalization), modernization, etc. Deloitte has been somewhat aggressive buying innoWake few years back. The buying cycle is about 1-3 years for state and local so I think 2021-2022 we will start seeing results of other consulting firms entering the market. If I remember correctly, ACN partners with TYL but that's an interesting relationship. Some of the other partners are low quality staff augmentation shops that only exist because of all the small business requirements. At some point, low staff quality shows. Thanks for the comments. I remember reading in the last 10K about them having to compete with integrators. I'm assuming that's what Deloitte, etc., are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I would buy BAH before I would buy TYL. BAH is more federal government consulting , I think @Inofeisone gave some interesting insight that they can leverage this to get more business from states and cities. BAH is a consulting business model that in some way looks similar like my cherished defense contractor stocks, but perhaps with better organic growth prospects. BAH stock has seen some multiple expansion but it is not close to being valued like TYL (for good reasons) but if they can compete against them in the future, this could become a different story. It is a great business as the business relationships last often many decades. That reminds me to do more work on BAH (I put it in the maybe pile a while ago.) Thanks, I'll look at BAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 These are all pretty great businesses, or at least to this point in time, have been. I have investors who were Arthur Andersen Consulting(current day Accenture) and man, you want to talk about a compounder, Accenture is a total beast. Totally changed their lives owning those shares pre IPO; granted being an ACN partner means you're making like $700k a year minimum...but many of those dudes ended up with 7/8/9 figure fortunes. My understanding now is that growth is declining(almost negative in many areas) and also there's some cultural stuff as the older guys dont really carry their weight anymore. BAH has always kind of been the red headed stepchild. Definitely more government focused...pretty sure this was Snowden's company. Random small cap honorable mention would be to check out CRAI. Like that business and growth trajectory a lot although I dont own any unfortunately; took my eye off it for a bit and its run up. But still seems OK-ish in terms of valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 I think CRAI is riding the wave of COVID work and bump in all the work that came with it. There is a very healthy backlog of work as municipalities, states, countries are looking for specialized support. CRAI doesn't really compete with TYL or BAH and they have specialization moat that the likes of PWC, EY, and Deloitte are unable to overcome mostly because Audit/Tax can't talk to consulting and all consultants are basically kids out of college that know how to do Excel/PowerPoint but no other real skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 (edited) After browsing the results of a Google search "Tyler Technologies problems", I have to add chronic integration issues & going live before the system has been thoroughly tested, as a problem. Probably not unique to the industry. Edited May 16, 2021 by DooDiligence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 12:53 PM, wabuffo said: DISCK @$33.80 Thanks for this great idea Wabuffo - and explanation on DISCK vs A/B - sold at the open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 added a bit more JOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 (edited) Thanks for this great idea Wabuffo - and explanation on DISCK vs A/B - sold at the open. Interesting. I had sold half my position in DISCK when it hit $65, then bought it back in a tax-deferred account at $30-$31 after the Archegos blow-up thinking it was a trading sardine. But I'm going to hold now. Malone and his managers have a great track record maximizing very large, underperforming assets they acquire from smaller base businesses (CHTR + TWC cable). There's a lot of pro-forma cash flow here to play with in the combined HBO/Turner/Discovery/HGTV media assets. I was less enthused about Discovery by itself but am more enthused about the combination. Plus - Discovery is collapsing its multiple-class share structure into a single class after the merger, so owning the K-class, I think one gets an additional scoop of return via the arb to the single class. wabuffo Edited May 17, 2021 by wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmac42600 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 VQS.TO following Connor Haley into this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Added a little MSGS today (Knicks finally made the playoff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 44 minutes ago, Castanza said: Added a little MSGS today (Knicks finally made the playoff) Randle playing out of his mind. Glad to see the Knicks fun to watch again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Buying TEN @ $13.75 - looks like the right time in the auto cycle for this one. Had a blowout Q1. With pent-up demand & low interest rates - the biggest issue seems to be the leverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longnose Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Finally jumped on the BABA train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 More dog money for my 401 (K9): So much wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Live shot of current new ideas landscape for me right now. wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 ^ HA HA - that's about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 I just bought a new beach towel & plan on averaging up tomorrow with a 12 pack of Red Stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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