60North Investments Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Added today to a small position in Sampo Plc A [HAMAS.HE] [up approx. 30%, from 0.82% to 1.07%] Would you mind sharing your rationale for buying Sampo (not that it is a large position for you)? From valuation perspective, trades at a premium to it's part even if you are quote generous on the values of IF and Mandatum. Unless they get same kind of rabbit out of their hat as they did with Danske Bank, I don't see the risk/reward as very good at these levels. So I'm curious as to what made you increase the position, if you don't mind sharing. Ps. Just to correct a typo, ticker is SAMAS, not HAMAS :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Added today to a small position in Sampo Plc A [HAMAS.HE] [up approx. 30%, from 0.82% to 1.07%] Would you mind sharing your rationale for buying Sampo (not that it is a large position for you)? From valuation perspective, trades at a premium to it's part even if you are quote generous on the values of IF and Mandatum. Unless they get same kind of rabbit out of their hat as they did with Danske Bank, I don't see the risk/reward as very good at these levels. So I'm curious as to what made you increase the position, if you don't mind sharing. Ps. Just to correct a typo, ticker is SAMAS, not HAMAS :) Thanks for the note about the ticker! - now fixed in the original post. Yes, certainly not cheap at these levels, I just wanted to get a bit more of it, after buying a bit a few years ago, before the runup. I really regret not buying a lot more at that moment, and judged now was the time for it, after the minor drop. Bjørn Wahlroos basicly hasen't done any material transactions for long now, I expect to get surprised - in a postive way - at some time in the future. He seems quite opportunistic to me, if one reads up about what he has done so far. Sampo will eventually end up with +50% going to 100% ownership of Topdanmark A/S [TOP.CPH] - one way or another - because TOP is returning capital to shareholders only by share buybacks. [As a TOP shareholder also I'm quite desperate about that fact in the long run]. This is an ultra term position for the family. I can't right now imagine what would provoke a decision to sell. Most likely the position will end up at third generation alive right now at some time in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
60North Investments Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Added today to a small position in Sampo Plc A [HAMAS.HE] [up approx. 30%, from 0.82% to 1.07%] Would you mind sharing your rationale for buying Sampo (not that it is a large position for you)? From valuation perspective, trades at a premium to it's part even if you are quote generous on the values of IF and Mandatum. Unless they get same kind of rabbit out of their hat as they did with Danske Bank, I don't see the risk/reward as very good at these levels. So I'm curious as to what made you increase the position, if you don't mind sharing. Ps. Just to correct a typo, ticker is SAMAS, not HAMAS :) Thanks for the note about the ticker! - now fixed in the original post. Yes, certainly not cheap at these levels, I just wanted to get a bit more of it, after buying a bit a few years ago, before the runup. I really regret not buying a lot more at that moment, and judged now was the time for it, after the minor drop. Bjørn Wahlroos basicly hasen't done any material transactions for long now, I expect to get surprised - in a postive way - at some time in the future. He seems quite opportunistic to me, if one reads up about what he has done so far. Sampo will eventually end up with +50% going to 100% ownership of Topdanmark A/S [TOP.CPH] - one way or another - because TOP is returning capital to shareholders only by share buybacks. [As a TOP shareholder also I'm quite desperate about that fact in the long run]. This is an ultra term position for the family. I can't right now imagine what would provoke a decision to sell. Most likely the position will end up at third generation alive right now at some time in the future. Thanks, I thought it would probably be a "forever hold". :) Just to put out my thoughts on it still, even giving IF a value of €13b (very generous I'd say, implies Wahlroos is able to sell it at a top price) today's price is paying +15% premium on the net assets. Idk how Topdanmark is currently valued, but I'd argue Nordea and Mandatum aren't currently undervalued. Nordea desperately needs higher rates, and carries the risk of Nordic real estate markets being in a state of overheat. I hope it works out for you but I'd be careful at these levels. Although I don't have a good idea of what might bring the premium down, which is an interesting question. Perhaps it needs a bigger correction in the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Against my rules i started to hedge with Russel2k and S&P500 futures. I am afraid that we take another 10% dive and i think the probabilities for that have increased a lot today. But i stay flexible going forward. Looks a bit like 2016 is going to be a replay of 2008, only that the ugly stuff happens in energy & materials instead of financials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Against my rules i started to hedge with Russel2k and S&P500 futures. I am afraid that we take another 10% dive and i think the probabilities for that have increased a lot today. But i stay flexible going forward. Looks a bit like 2016 is going to be a replay of 2008, only that the ugly stuff happens in energy & materials instead of financials. May I ask why you see another 10% down based on today's news? My view is you don't get a real liquidity event without a financial crisis - and if that happens, it might be European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Against my rules i started to hedge with Russel2k and S&P500 futures. I am afraid that we take another 10% dive and i think the probabilities for that have increased a lot today. But i stay flexible going forward. Looks a bit like 2016 is going to be a replay of 2008, only that the ugly stuff happens in energy & materials instead of financials. May I ask why you see another 10% down based on today's news? My view is you don't get a real liquidity event without a financial crisis - and if that happens, it might be European. Its not the news that gave me that insight but the uptrend violation in the Russel2k and now in the S&P500, too. That doesn`t normally happen in a broad based recovery from a low. We have that liquidity crisis already, the oil producing countries are dumping their foreign assets. Thats probably the reason why oil and stocks are so correlated right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 My goals for 2016 are 1) hold my weight 2) make more friends 3) stop trading options, OTC, microcaps and illiquid stocks and stop making stupid short term trades. (the last one was already on last years list, if someone has an idea to force myself to not do it, its welcome.) There are so many moving parts like interest rates, inflation or USD thats its pretty impossible to figure out what S&P500 earnings will do over the course of the next few years. But you can be sure that in 10-20 years earnings will be higher than they are now. [..] If you are not able to figure out what happens there, than probably buying cheap stocks is whats going to work over the long run. Just saying .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Haha thanks for the kind reminder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Added to Novo Nordisk A/S [NOVO.CPH] this morning [uS ADR: NVO]. It dropped about 5 percent on the disclosure of results for FY 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieD Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Bought some TOBII. Decent entry point in a growth company dominating it's niche within eye tracking. Downside should be limited due to one Business Area with decent cash flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Added to Novo Nordisk A/S [NOVO.CPH] this morning [uS ADR: NVO]. It dropped about 5 percent on the disclosure of results for FY 2015. A great company with a great growth potential. A bit expensive right now imo… And I am still cautious to pay for growth in the pharma and biotech sector… But I’ll keep watching! I was listening to an interview with Sam Zell in December and he had this to say: “I always ask myself: where is demand coming from? Where is growth coming from? And then I try to align my investments with the most plausible answers.” Therefore, a strong secular tailwind is very useful for the creation of value. Sometimes, though, things get out of control and too much capital flows in an industry with great opportunities for long-term growth. Prices rise too high, too fast. And then a steep correction is inevitable. That’s what we have just witnessed with biotech. This correction could surely go a while longer, but at some point a great buying opportunity might be within reach. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Exor good deal on a dollar basis I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I was listening to an interview with Sam Zell in December and he had this to say: “I always ask myself: where is demand coming from? Where is growth coming from? And then I try to align my investments with the most plausible answers.” I recently read that this leaves the most important factor out and that is supply. This is not an argument against healthcare, but without supply you know nothing about the attractiveness of a sector. Look at oil, demand is growing since decades, but does it mean oil prices will go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I recently read that this leaves the most important factor out and that is supply. This is not an argument against healthcare, but without supply you know nothing about the attractiveness of a sector. Look at oil, demand is growing since decades, but does it mean oil prices will go up? Yes, of course! In fact Mr. Zell talked about both supply and demand… He was saying though that in general the world today is experiencing demand that is too low, and that is the real problem, not oversupply… As you have rightly pointed out, oil might be the right counterargument (among many others I am sure!). Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Sold some shares of Nike & Starbucks. Looking at BAC 2018 leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just saying .. Thought about that a bit deeper and came to the conclusion that closing the hedges with a small gain is a good idea. :) But what i originally meant with my posting was stupid short term trades in stocks like the one i did with NFLX, that was really a stupid idea. I will still trade short futures against my portfolio, thats were all my gains came from the last two years. But that is always with a predetermined setup and stop. Even though i prefer to do it only in the summer, because the probabilities for success are much higher there i will do it from time to time in the winter, too. Just to be safe, i hate losing money like the plague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Bought SYNT at $44 handle and more MCO at $84 handle. Also bought large FICO stake for client at $82 handle I sold FICO on 12/31 and just missed being able to buy back in for a song! Undecided how much I'll repurchase at current prices. Share-based comp really bothers me but the company has so much potential in-spite of this. I always thought it would be a perfect acquisition for BRK or numerous other companies. Looking hard at small Canadian O&G for small allocation. Beyond that, swimming in cash and microcaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 More DirectCash @ 10.26. Trading @ 25% cash yield and EV/ebitda @ 5,2 with high insider ownership and recent buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 More DirectCash @ 10.26. Trading @ 25% cash yield and EV/ebitda @ 5,2 with high insider ownership and recent buying. why doesn't the debt concern you? ~3x the market cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 More DirectCash @ 10.26. Trading @ 25% cash yield and EV/ebitda @ 5,2 with high insider ownership and recent buying. why doesn't the debt concern you? ~3x the market cap Do you mean equity? Net debt is 186m or equal to the current market cap and 2,6 times FY15 EBITDA. They've been reducing debt. Edit: I think it's a pretty recession proof business, so I think they can easily manage it as this level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 MET and PRU. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nobody's buying today? I bought some BX (Blackstone) at $24.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 baba jd frak and vix put (living dangerously ;)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nobody's buying today? I bought some BX (Blackstone) at $24.25. MDLZ hit an alert I set at $36 back a year or two ago, but I pussed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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