TorontoRaptorsFan Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Chipotle and Google Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Pardee Resources PDER Noice! Hoping it stays where it's at for another 3 weeks. Anticipating selling CMG into any post-earnings rally (fingers crossed) and rolling the proceeds into more Pardee shares before since it hasn't participated in the rally like other commodity names. Sold CMG. Buying PDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 GNW Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 WETF, scaling in mind you. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 NVO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 NVO, Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 AMGN Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 CTO and AND.TO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Nike (NKE) Self lacing shoes start selling next month Nike watch in collaboration with Apple now available Being a lot more strategic with endorsement contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Back in January, the CEO said that they weren't planning on a major acquisition, but would not rule out smaller transactions like those that occurred in 2014. Santander hand increased it's ownership of BSBR from 75% to 88% in a voluntary tender during 2014. I am beginning to speculate that with the increased earnings power, high reserves, and improvement in Spain, and the price action of subsidiaries that it is becoming a possibility that Santander will do something similar again and am thinking about buying shares in the subsidiaries as opposed to increasing my holdings in the SAN directly. All of the publicly traded subsidiaries are down, in euro terms, for the year: Banco Santander Chile: -1.5% YTD Banco Santander Brasil: -33% YTD Banco Santander Mexico: -24% YTD Does anyone have any thoughts on the possibility for another tender/acquisition? Also, I thought I recalled reading somewhere that the capital they have to hold against these publicly traded subsidiaries was quite high. Does anyone have any generalized banking knowledge on that subject that might help me understand the contrary argument? Thanks, Well, Santander didn't buy any of them, but it wasn't a bad time to be buying them. Below are the returns, not including dividends, since that post. Banco Santander Chile: +23.87% Banco Santander Brasil: +131% Banco Santander Mexico: +30.92% Despite this incredible performance from it's subsidiaries, SAN itself is down -17.53% over the same period currently sporting a market cap of $60B. This has significantly shifted the market implied values of operations in Europe (only accessible by buying a stake in the parent). If we look at it's ownership in its public subsidiaries and the Americas and their market caps, (BSBR - 88.3% OF $26B, BSMX - 75% of 12.59B, and BSAC - 67% of 10.3B, SC - 58.9% of 4B), we see that it's ownership in public subsidiaries is around $42.5B against it's current market cap of $60B. So what that is telling us is that the market implied value of the remainder of U.S. and European operations is only $17.5B - or roughly 4x it's earnings contribution (~4.5B - 1st half of 2016 annualized) while America's trades closer to 15x (~2.8B - 1st half annualized). I still think America's offers decent value with a long runway for growth, but methinks it's time to roll out of the subsidiaries and back into the parent to increase that European exposure. Prior to today, about 1/3 of my exposure to Santander was through BSBR and the other 2/3 via SAN as I anticipated higher returns from BSBR either through an EM recovery or through Santander repurchasing the entire entity. Now that it's rallied quite a bit, and the parent has languished, the repurchasing is less likely and the gains I've received are pretty favorable to roll back into an even larger position in SAN. Totally out of BSBR and back to 100% SAN. Just sold all of the SAN I purchased with proceeds from BSBR at around a 15% profit (depends on the exchange rate/reinvestment rate of the dividend later this month). The position was too large and the increase in exposure via BSBR purchase/rolling into SAN were always intended to be tactical trades "around" the core position and not core themselves. Getting skittish with a potential rate hake coming, the dollar at 7 month highs, and the U.S. election etc. and didn't want to be "risk-on" going into year end. Having exposure 30% above what I wanted my "core" position to be seemed aggressive so I took my gains and will maintain the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Wrote some WFC puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Wrote some WFC puts. Do you think there's more bad news coming and/or just more pain due to what's already out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Wrote some WFC puts. Do you think there's more bad news coming and/or just more pain due to what's already out there? I have no clue, but if there is more coming then it will be an even better buying opportunity and I'll buy more. Edit: And I am writing puts, so I am trying to get a lower basis than where WFC is currently trading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Wrote some WFC puts. Do you think there's more bad news coming and/or just more pain due to what's already out there? I have no clue, but if there is more coming then it will be an even better buying opportunity and I'll buy more. Edit: And I am writing puts, so I am trying to get a lower basis than where WFC is currently trading. I've backed into positions the same way before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Wrote puts on VRX @ $10 for $0.45. Not particularly bullish on the name and wouldn't want to own the stock outright. Just part of my regular strategy to sell puts against hated names after massive drops that has previously included DB, CHK, ACI, etc to earn a decent return on my growing cash balances. 4.5% for 5 weeks protection against a drop in excess of 31% seemed fair. Also, sold about 1/3 of my CNXC position and in-the-money covered calls against all of my CLD position. Looking at about 150-200% in profit on these names over the course of the year and a Hillary win isn't too supportive of coal assets. Don't want to get too greedy with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 Increased FNMAJ just shy of 30%. Attempting to roll my FCAU shares into LEAPs deep in the money to get get some leverage and free up some cash for more PDER purchases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 Increased FNMAJ just shy of 30%. Attempting to roll my FCAU shares into LEAPs deap in the money to get get some leverage and free up some cash for more PDER purchases. interesting arb long fnmas and short fnmat. a little too fancy pants for me, but why isnt this a money machine right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 ocn on a cpsb demise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 PPR-TO and CCZ-TO Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 Wow. Look at those treasuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 PPR-TO and CCZ-TO Cardboard Prairie Provident - how long will it stay this cheap... Market cap is $73mm with bank line open at current time. Production is now 4,900 boed. EV/boed is an astonishing $15K. Also.... Undervalued: PPR trades at a large discount to our core NAV of $2.24/fd share and to our risked NAV of $2.60/fd share. On a 2017E EV/DACF basis, PPR trades at a 3.8x multiple. Mackie.... PRAIRIE PROVIDENT RESOURCES INC. PPR (CAD$0.82) – Target: $2.00 – BUY [PDF]Well Funded E&P Producer Overlooked By The Market 6 pages Action: Maintain BUY and 2.00 Target Price Prairie Provident Resources Inc. (“PPR”) holds a high working interest and operatorship in a large land base, with a primary focus on development of its covenantal oil plays within three core areas (Wheatland, Princess and Evi) located in Alberta. These assets offer multi-zone potential primarily targeting oil and liquids plays that offer attractive economics even in the current low commodity price environment. Details: Q3/16 Financial & Operating Results Production & Cash Flow: Average Q3/16 production of 3,038 boe/d was higher than our forecast of 2,795 boe/d. Cash flow of $1.8 million ($0.02/fd share) was in line our forecast of 1.5 million ($0.02/fd share). Note that on September 13, 2016 Lone Pine Resource Corp. (Private Co.) and Arsenal Energy Inc. combined to from Prairie Provident Resources Inc. (“PPR”). As such, Q4/16 will be the first quarter that reflects the potential of the combined entity. We forecast Q4/16 average production of 4,475 boe/d and $4.9 million of cash flow. Current production is approximately 4,900 boe/d and the company expects to place 4 more wells on stream before year-end increasing production to over 5,000 boe/d exit 2016. 100% Drilling Success at Wheatland: PPR drilled eight wells in the Wheatland area achieving a 100% success rate. The company has 6 wells drilled and cased and ready to be tied in, with 4 expected to be on stream before year end and 2 wells in Q1/17. Financial Flexibly: PPR has a $55 million credit facility with only $2.1 million outstanding as at September 30, 2016. Net debt including working capital deficit was $16.7 million. PPR plans to maintain a conservative debt to cash flow of 1.0x. This financial flexibility provides PPR the ability to quickly act on accretive acquisition opportunities as they arise. 2017 Production Guidance: Based upon a capex of $25 million to $35 million, PPR expects 2017 production to average between 5,300 boe/d and 5,800 boe/d with exit 2017 rate in the 5,500/boe to 6,000 boe/d range. Undervalued: PPR trades at a large discount to our core NAV of $2.24/fd share and to our risked NAV of $2.60/fd share. On a 2017E EV/DACF basis, PPR trades at a 3.8x multiple. Impact: Solid Production Base To Fund Organic Growth While PPR trades at a discount to both our core NAV, risked NAV and our EV/DACF valuation, we anticipate the stock to bridge this gap as the company exploits is large development drilling inventory and demonstrates substantial production and cash flow growth. With considerable financial flexibility we believe it’s likely that growth can be accelerated through the company through of accretive acquisitions. By Bill Newman – 2016/11/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 Some HC2 Holdings yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Increased BBU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Increased FNMAJ just shy of 30%. Attempting to roll my FCAU shares into LEAPs deep in the money to get get some leverage and free up some cash for more PDER purchases. Finally finished the rolling of FCAU into LEAPs...missed a little of the upside today, but since I'm nearly 2x levered on that exposure now, it wasn't so bad. Purchased more PDER and increased FRFHF by 10% with the cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Wrote some WFC puts. I used this strategy a while back but it didn't earn much. Buying the warrant has a much better up side when it goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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