ItsAValueTrap Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Jeez, flash crash in this stock today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Jeez, flash crash in this stock today. Doesn't it have to go back up to be a flash crash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valiant Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Any opinions on the recent hit to Altisource. The concerns by the regulators are legitimate. If the relationship between alti and ocwen is cut off, it will be quite bad for alti. However, the chances of that happening do not seem very large to me. To appease the regulators, I am sure Alti-ocwen can change things around. For ex. maybe Erbey could quit as the chairman of one of the companies. Anyone aware of previous such instances where conflict of interest was indicated by regulators and what transpired? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hmm you can read the prospectuses for CDOs/MBSs on SEC EDGAR. Here's one of them: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1011663/000119312507253211/d424b5.htm I wish I had Asperger's right about now... 2- Ocwen services very few Fannie and Freddie loans. Apparently Fannie Mae had concerns about Ocwen's outsourcing to India (foreigners would be able to see certain data). When Ocwen bought Rescap, WAC bought the Fannie Mae mortgages. 3- The following website explains how to find pooling and servicing agreements: http://mariokenny.me/how-to-find-your-pooling-and-servicing-agreement/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I remember seeing this company last year and after 10 minutes it went to the too hard pile. i hope this ends up decent for the longs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 A House With a Modified Loan Is a Symbol of Servicers’ Tug of War With Investors http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/a-house-with-a-modified-loan-is-a-symbol-of-servicers-tug-of-war-with-investors/ "Regulators that have taken aim at Ocwen in recent months for its practices also face a dilemma. While they may have raised questions about the company’s practices, the firm may in fact be more efficient, and more supportive of homeowners, than its rivals. As the regulators lean on Ocwen, it may hamper its ability to grow, leaving more servicing in the hands of large banks, which were criticized for the way they handled the torrent of foreclosures after the financial crisis." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 A House With a Modified Loan Is a Symbol of Servicers’ Tug of War With Investors http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/a-house-with-a-modified-loan-is-a-symbol-of-servicers-tug-of-war-with-investors/ "Regulators that have taken aim at Ocwen in recent months for its practices also face a dilemma. While they may have raised questions about the company’s practices, the firm may in fact be more efficient, and more supportive of homeowners, than its rivals. As the regulators lean on Ocwen, it may hamper its ability to grow, leaving more servicing in the hands of large banks, which were criticized for the way they handled the torrent of foreclosures after the financial crisis." I like that article. I do agree with the Ocwen spokesperson who said that Zillow estimates aren't always accurate. I think that the idea that investors can sue Ocwen is bogus. Ocwen will get paid more if the unpaid balance is higher. If it unnecessarily modifies the loan to a smaller amount, that it will receive less in servicing fees. The net present value calculation is tricky. In any foreclosure, there will be large losses on the foreclosure (e.g. 30%). So you can easily justify almost any loan modification. As far as investors go, maybe they really shouldn't invest in mortgage-backed securities. There are some conflicts of interest between the servicer and the investors. The servicer often doesn't get adequately compensated for dealing with delinquent loans. When these MBS were constructed, those creating the MBS didn't really think too much about losses from foreclosures. They certainly didn't expect the massive losses on the MBS, the subprime crisis and the high levels of foreclosures, and fradulent origination (e.g. NINJA/liar loans). Fannie Mae is actually purchasing servicing rights to its delinquent loans so that it can direct the mortgage servicing to a company that does a better job at servicing. The split between ownership of the mortgages and the servicing of the mortgages is a problem. So is the split between origination and ownership. These were problems created by the financial "innovation" of the mortgage-backed security. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah, I agree. I think a more critical part is that it is actually in a servicer's interest to foreclose as they can get their payment advances back more quickly and put capitals in other more productive investments with higher IRRs. I am not sure why senior MBS investors are suing when their economic incentives are aligned with the servicers. Servicers are similar to loan collectors. It's not the most glamorous business in the world, but if Ocwen is the best in its class in terms of efficiency in modifying loans, I am not sure whether the Benjamin Lawsky is chasing the bad guy here. Just because it is the biggest servicers doesn't mean it's the worst. He should look at the modification rates instead. (Though he did also go after NSM last week as well.) I think regulators ran out of "bank" cows to milk and are now picking on servicers instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Mortgage Market Gets Reshuffled - Business of Servicing Home Loans Is Moving Away From Banks http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020104579429373221235860?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timidbid Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Does anyone have an opinion on Altisource's assumptions for the growth of their Originations-related business presented in their Q4 earnings presention? (link: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1462418/000110465913086756/a13-25026_1ex99d1.htm) On slide 27 (link: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1462418/000110465913086756/g250261mni028.gif, they show what appears to be fairly aggressive revenue growth. Fred Small of Compass Point asks about the assumptions on the call and gets a "Yes, we think that's a fair assumption." from Bill Sherpo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 30-min interview with William Erbey at Boston University in 2013, discussing: - Opportunities for Altisource, Ocwen, etc - Their business and management processes - And disruption of the financial services industry generally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ajc, nice find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ajc, nice find! Glad I could help. Thanks for the great idea and killer blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Stirring the waters: http://www.scribd.com/doc/213316422/Short-Aamc-glaucusresearch-long-Resi-mar-19-2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Stirring the waters: http://www.scribd.com/doc/213316422/Short-Aamc-glaucusresearch-long-Resi-mar-19-2014 Haha. Yes, clearly AAMC has been overvalued. But shorting AAMC has been a death trap so far. AAMC is fairly illiquid so I don't think that shorting it is the greatest idea. Going long RESI doesn't strike me as a good idea, given that it trades at a large premium to book value and is burdened by management fees. Management/AAMC also doesn't have a track record in that particular niche. 2- Both RESI and AAMC were spun off from Altisource. The RESI-AAMC deal is fair in the sense that shareholders got equal shares in both. Glaucus is being a pain in the ass by arguing that the RESI-AAMC deal is unfair. What they're doing will generate lots of legal fees and destroy value for shareholders in aggregate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Haha. Yes, clearly AAMC has been overvalued. But shorting AAMC has been a death trap so far. AAMC is fairly illiquid so I don't think that shorting it is the greatest idea. It's not that illiquid, it averages around $20M a day. In one of my luckier trades, I sold a few shares at $1070 in January and bought at $705 (!) in February. As death traps go, that's pretty nice. Activism probably won't succeed at RESI, but Glaucus' argument could attract the attention of the SEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 So from what I understand, ASPS is the property manager, RESI owns the loans, and AAMN/NewSource provide asset management/title services? My question is why ASPS and not AAMC? AAMC's profitability is directly tied to RESI's dividend payments but lacks the downside of holding the loans themselves. So if RESI prospers, NewSource prospers with it by providing title insurance. NewSource funnels these profits back to RESI via the dividend, but RESI then pays AAMC based on the level of dividend payments. Sounds like AAMC owns all the upside without the downside. Also, where does ASPS fit into this picture? Errors of omission sure are lousy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's not that illiquid, it averages around $20M a day. Hmm maybe I'm stuck in the past, when the share price was lower and there was slightly less volume and there was a VIC writeup about shorting AAMC. I never owned a piece of this 12-bagger but... I don't think that the valuation makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Love it. AAMC needs to be called out. It's an asset manager that trades for more than AUM and people who own RESI need to be aware just how poorly the incentives are aligned. What a great target! This is pure comedic gold and why we need short sellers to provide skepticism and bs calling services to the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 This is an interesting company and the valuation is getting attractive again. My only concern is that while Erby is considered a great CEO, it seems that Ocwen had a very, very long flat-line in it's equity price prior to the recent run-up. Has anyone looked at what happened at Ocwen during the period 96 - 08 and why it was so static? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 This is an interesting company and the valuation is getting attractive again. My only concern is that while Erby is considered a great CEO, it seems that Ocwen had a very, very long flat-line in it's equity price prior to the recent run-up. Has anyone looked at what happened at Ocwen during the period 96 - 08 and why it was so static? Hmm Ocwen is affected by a number of factors: - Falling interest rates is a bad thing. When interest rates fall, refinancings go up and lower the value of their MSRs. I believe interest rates have been falling for most of the 96 - 08 timeframe??? - The bursting of the housing bubble was kind of a bad thing, because foreclosures and delinquent mortgages are bad for their MSRs. Foreclosures are expensive to handle and cause their servicing fee from that mortgage to terminate early. - The financial crisis in 08/09 was a bad thing because financing presumably became expensive for Ocwen. Ocwen has to put up advances as the servicer of mortgage securitizations. These advances suck up a lot of capital. While these advances theoretically have very good credit quality (higher than AAA???), 08/09 was a time of panic. Good things for Ocwen: - Strong housing market with low foreclosures. But if housing prices go up too much, then you might get slightly more refinancings. Leading up to 2005, this was sort of a tailwind for Ocwen??? - More servicing regulations - Capital rules changing for banks, making MSRs unattractive for them - Banks puking out MSRs because they need to raise capital - Government subsidies designed to keep people in their homes, e.g. HAMP. - Flat or rising interest rates. - Lots of foreclosures, which create opportunities for the servicer to create value So Ocwen has seen most of its tailwinds in the past few years. 2- If you judge Erbey based on his net worth, then he has done pretty well. He is a self-made billionaire. He is 63 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Thanks for the feedback. I have to put some more time into this one but it looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Nice post about Bill Erbey: http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2014/03/12/what-do-mike-white-and-bill-erbey-have-in-common/ And new post from the same blogger about ASPS: http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2014/04/29/altisource-portfolio-solutions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Oh snap, Robert D Stiles now works for Nationstar. http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=61022745&ticker=ASPS Stiles is smart because he left Ocwen to become Altisources CFO right after it spun out. It's highly unconventional to leave a bigger company to join a smaller company. He must have killed it with his stock options. He is also a little hardcore because he had to move to Luxembourg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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