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AWLCF - Awilco Drilling


DTEJD1997

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Puzzled somewhat about the recent weakness (selloff in Norwegian markets on above-average volume offset by some buyers in US OTC Market). With the company doing business in US Dollars (which has appreciated vs NOK recently) how can the analyst firms concoct a target price in NOK?

 

Is the market expecting a glut in the UK market? Are day-rates (or oil) on the verge of falling off a cliff? Why does the market place a 20%+ yield on this?

 

I realize there is a weakness in the deep-water rig market "after years of growth fueled by oil and natural gas discoveries," but is this same for semi-submersibles in north sea market that are primarily used for "abandonment work"?

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Puzzled somewhat about the recent weakness (selloff in Norwegian markets on above-average volume offset by some buyers in US OTC Market). With the company doing business in US Dollars (which has appreciated vs NOK recently) how can the analyst firms concoct a target price in NOK?

 

Is the market expecting a glut in the UK market? Are day-rates (or oil) on the verge of falling off a cliff? Why does the market place a 20%+ yield on this?

 

I realize there is a weakness in the deep-water rig market "after years of growth fueled by oil and natural gas discoveries," but is this same for semi-submersibles in north sea market that are primarily used for "abandonment work"?

 

The stock has really only begrudgingly given up ground, given the weakness in the deep water market.  It does raise the question if the UK and deep water markets are that segmented? 

 

What really matters is what the price will be in 2016 when the contracts end.  If deepwater rig utilization is low then, why can't some deepwater rigs move back to the UK, just as they left when the deepwater market strengthened?

 

The other question is whether the stock is in fact yielding 20% at $20?  It looks to be yielding a lot less based on expected dividends in 2015 and 2016.  I think Norwegian investors are aware of that, but not so much investors here in the US.

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  • 3 weeks later...

And some more analyst negativity:

 

Awilco Drilling has presented results for the fourth quarter, in line with both DNB Markets' estimates and consensus.

 

"The proposed dividend of $ 1.10 per share, in line with expectations and represents a continued high yield of annualized 22 percent. Next scheduled shipyard stay rig Wil Hunter is now expected in late 2015 with our earlier expectations in 2016. We expect thus pushing some of the estimated earnings for 2015 over 2016, "writes the brokerage.

 

DNB Markets has a sell recommendation with a price target of NOK 105 per share.

 

Latest listing is 119.50 million, down 1.2 percent.

 

http://www.hegnar.no/analyser/article757581.ece

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Color me unimpressed with the analysis at DNB Markets...

 

Nobody knows what rig rates are going to be in 2016 & 2017, not even analysts...

 

Prices are going to be heavily dependent on the price of oil.  If oil is $40/barrel, then Awilco has a problem...If oil is $85+ Awilco is probably good.  If oil is $120/barrel, Awilco will be in excellent shape.

 

My guess is that oil will be about the same price ($100 barrel).  I see two bullish factors for oil.  First is increasing demand from emerging markets.  Second is the depreciation of the USD.

 

One bearish factor is the opening of the Mexican market.  PEMEX's monopoly is going to be curtailed.  A lot of oil could be coming out of Mexico in the upcoming years. 

 

We will see!

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  • 3 weeks later...

Fidelity is showing my Awilco dividends to be non-qualified, but TD Ameritrade is showing them as qualified.  I'm having trouble getting Fido to see the light that a UK company qualifies for qualified dividend treatment.  Is anybody else having trouble with the classification of their Awilco dividends?

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22percent,

 

This isn't uncommon for Fidelity. I've had this in the past, it's as if they run a special re-classification program at tax time. One year I had many dividends reported as non-qualified changed to qualified (corrected) before the tax forms were submitted.

 

I wouldn't worry about it. If this is a true ADR that's sponsored then there should be no problem with the classification. If you purchased them directly on the foreign exchange you aren't going to get the tax treatment.

 

Nate

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Fidelity is showing my Awilco dividends to be non-qualified, but TD Ameritrade is showing them as qualified.  I'm having trouble getting Fido to see the light that a UK company qualifies for qualified dividend treatment.  Is anybody else having trouble with the classification of their Awilco dividends?

 

Fidelity is insisting that this dividend is ordinary and so is Merrill. I have a tax-sheltered account with TD so I have no idea what they think.

 

 

I asked Fidelity how they can be so sure, and I got a response stating "After further research internally and verifying with our 3rd party vendor who compile the tests and determine the income classification, this company did not pass the U.S. treaty test to be eligible as qualified."

 

Also frustrating is that others are reporting that E*Trade and Vanguard report then as qualified too.

 

Here is the company's response (as expected) when I asked them their dividend status:

 

"Unfortunately, I am not in position to confirm the US legal/tax definition of our dividends so the only advise I can give you is to ask a US legal/tax adviser to help you determine whether the dividend should be classified as ‘ordinary’ or ‘qualified in the US. We are a UK company registered in England & Wales with headquarters in Aberdeen, Scotland, and stock exchange listing in Oslo, Norway (at the Oslo Axess list – Oslo Stock Exchange, ticker AWDR). There is no withholding tax on the paid dividend, i.e. the gross amount is paid out."

 

I'm really not sure what the recourse really is. I could report it on my return as qualified against my broker's recommendation and then risk an audit. Lose, lose either way...but still open to suggestions...

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Fidelity is showing my Awilco dividends to be non-qualified, but TD Ameritrade is showing them as qualified.  I'm having trouble getting Fido to see the light that a UK company qualifies for qualified dividend treatment.  Is anybody else having trouble with the classification of their Awilco dividends?

 

Fidelity is insisting that this dividend is ordinary and so is Merrill. I have a tax-sheltered account with TD so I have no idea what they think.

 

 

I asked Fidelity how they can be so sure, and I got a response stating "After further research internally and verifying with our 3rd party vendor who compile the tests and determine the income classification, this company did not pass the U.S. treaty test to be eligible as qualified."

 

Also frustrating is that others are reporting that E*Trade and Vanguard report then as qualified too.

 

Here is the company's response (as expected) when I asked them their dividend status:

 

"Unfortunately, I am not in position to confirm the US legal/tax definition of our dividends so the only advise I can give you is to ask a US legal/tax adviser to help you determine whether the dividend should be classified as ‘ordinary’ or ‘qualified in the US. We are a UK company registered in England & Wales with headquarters in Aberdeen, Scotland, and stock exchange listing in Oslo, Norway (at the Oslo Axess list – Oslo Stock Exchange, ticker AWDR). There is no withholding tax on the paid dividend, i.e. the gross amount is paid out."

 

I'm really not sure what the recourse really is. I could report it on my return as qualified against my broker's recommendation and then risk an audit. Lose, lose either way...but still open to suggestions...

 

Have you tried the international desk?: 800.544.2976

 

If you feel confident you're entitled to this, they might be able to help you. 

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Hey all:

 

Looks like Awilco is proposing a new bond offering, looking to push the maturity out till 2019.

 

I also wonder if it will be used to "smooth" the dividend out when the rigs go into the yard for maintenance/upgrade work?

 

Also wonder if there is possibility of a new acquisition?

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