fareastwarriors Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Allergan Questions Ties Between Valeant, Pershing Botox Maker Files Suit Accusing Pershing, Ackman of Insider Trading http://online.wsj.com/articles/allergan-files-suit-versus-valeant-pershing-1406908244 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 http://blogs.wsj.com/pharmalot/2014/08/01/allergan-claims-valeant-and-ackman-violated-insider-trading-laws/ UPDATE: Ackman just sent us this statement: "This is a shameless attempt by Allergan to delay the shareholders’ fundamental right to call a special meeting and vote their shares. Allergan is threatened by our progress toward calling the special meeting. This scorched-earth approach is further evidence of the board’s and management’s entrenchment.” And Pershing adds that "Allergan’s true purpose in bringing the litigation is an attempt to interfere with shareholders’ efforts to call a special meeting. That purpose is made clear in a separate letter Allergan sent today to the Delaware Court of Chancery." In that letter, he notes, Allergan says its bylaws provide that the corporate secretary ‘shall consider ineffective’ any special meeting requests that are ‘made in a manner that involved a violation of Regulation 14A under the Exchange Act, or other applicable law.” And Valeant chief executive Michael Pearson has this to say in the same statement: "We are disappointed that Allergan continues to stand in the way of its shareholders right to voice their views on a transaction with Valeant." They would also delight in telling you that one of the law firms now advising Allergan, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, last spring issued a memo saying the maneuvering by Valeant and Ackman did not constitute insider trading. As previously noted, another law firm, Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton, also issued a position paper declaring there was no violation of insider trading laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Around the time the pursuit of Allergan was announced, I had it as my largest position, then I had cut it in half, and then cut it to zero on the basis that there might be a good chance the price would come down (given the high debt, non-GAAP earnings, complicated story to some, bad spin from Allergan, etc.). Looks like the price has indeed come down so I guess I better start buying. Congrats, looks like you timed things right, but be careful with those kinds of manoeuvres if it's a company you really like that you want to hold for the long term. If something had happened that had suddenly made the AGN acquisition very likely to happen, you might have missed your window. You are right about these manoeuvres being somewhat risky, however it seems the market offers up opportunities like this frequently. I have been eyeing three investments: VRX, CKI.TO and ALS.TO. In the past 6 months, all three have became cheaper than I would have expected at various points in time - and this in a relatively flat market. Its weird, but I guess this is just further evidence that Mr. Market really is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 You are right about these manoeuvres being somewhat risky, however it seems the market offers up opportunities like this frequently. I have been eyeing three investments: VRX, CKI.TO and ALS.TO. In the past 6 months, all three have became cheaper than I would have expected at various points in time - and this in a relatively flat market. Its weird, but I guess this is just further evidence that Mr. Market really is our friend. You're absolutely right, I see it happen all the time when I'm not doing anything. As soon as I decide to buy or to wait or whatever, things go against me everytime... Maybe it's just my curse :-[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 And Valeant chief executive Michael Pearson has this to say in the same statement: "We are disappointed that Allergan continues to stand in the way of its shareholders right to voice their views on a transaction with Valeant." Amazing that they want to prevent the owners to vote. Don't the shareholders own the company? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I have a pretty severe case of investment "wood" for this stock right now. Just unbelievable it is trading where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/04/dealpolitik-allergan-throws-complex-road-block-at-valeant-pershing-square/ The bottom line is that the lawsuit isn’t just about technical issues of compliance with the tender offer and proxy rules. It is looks like it is a complex strategic move to buy the Allergan board more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cayale Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 And Valeant chief executive Michael Pearson has this to say in the same statement: "We are disappointed that Allergan continues to stand in the way of its shareholders right to voice their views on a transaction with Valeant." Amazing that they want to prevent the owners to vote. Don't the shareholders own the company? ??? Well, at this point arbitrageurs own the company. Different than "long-term" shareholders, which have practically ceased to exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Well, at this point arbitrageurs own the company. Different than "long-term" shareholders, which have practically ceased to exist. Long-term owners who sell are no longer long-term owners. If they sold, it's probably because they know AGN isn't worth what it's going for now as a standalone, so that also tells you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Allergan still on the attack: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140805005616/en/Allergan-Comments-Valeant%E2%80%99s-Quarter-2014-Earnings-Results#.U-DU5oB4bKg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I like how this will be a book one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I like how this will be a book one day. The way things are going, it will be a movie too (or maybe a side plot in the Herbalife movie?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 I already emailed the idea to Lewis and asked for a 7% royalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/allergan-ackan-idINL2N0QB00G20140805 Proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis on Monday suggested that Allergan Inc shareholders join hedge fund manager William Ackman in calling for a special shareholder meeting. In a report issued to clients, the firm said that shareholders should fill out the paperwork required by Botox maker Allergan for anyone who would like to call for a special shareholder meeting. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/allergan-being-obstructive-in-deal-defense-firm-says.html Allergan’s “cumbersome” set of bylaws “casts a rather dubious light on the seriousness of the board’s desire to be responsive to investors,” said Glass Lewis & Co in a report to clients today. The company’s recommendations on proxy fights are often followed by investors. “This obstructive process echoes a trend of recalcitrant adherence to progressive corporate governance standards at Allergan,” Glass Lewis said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Ackman and Valeant’s Bid for Botox Maker May Be Too Clever to Be Legal http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/08/04/valeants-deal-with-ackman-may-be-too-clever-to-be-legal/?module=BlogPost- Title&version=Blog Main&contentCollection=DealBook Column&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mungerville Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 This reminds me a lot of Fairfax 12 years ago: GAAP earnings and combined ratio not representative of underlying earnings and run-rate combined ratio we see today, business model flawed, lots of noise from shorts (in this case, lots of noise from Allergan), lawsuits, etc etc This is why I thought the stock would likely get cheaper - maybe it was dumb luck or maybe it was experience, or maybe it was some combination of the two. If the stock market tanks now, VRX could get even cheaper. Lets hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Picked up a small position yesterday. Swapped some AAPL for VRX. Anyone else adding here? My thesis is pretty simple 1. Jockey Stock - like Mike Pearson, but trust ValueAct and their model. So its a bet on the guys who selected the jockey :) 2. High financial leverage - love this in this environment, I don't understand why much bigger and stable companies are not doing the rational thing of levering up. (I actually do understand, but I don't get it! ) 3. Presence of vocal shorts, complex accounting, hated by others in the industry, hostile takeovers, front page headlines etc - these things tend it make it somewhat unloved, and loving the unloved has worked out okay for me most of the time. 4. Good runway ahead - Shorts keep asking what happens when acquisitions stop, I think that's a valid risk, but I think there is quite a distance to go before they get there. It's a huge sector and the CEO seems flexible enough to find his way through it. If he finds enough durable pharma-consumer assets with decently stable cash flows in the interim, its not inconceivable that this becomes one of those blue chip dividend stocks. I would like this to go lower though. I think high 80's-low 90's would be awesome ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 And Valeant chief executive Michael Pearson has this to say in the same statement: "We are disappointed that Allergan continues to stand in the way of its shareholders right to voice their views on a transaction with Valeant." Amazing that they want to prevent the owners to vote. Don't the shareholders own the company? ??? Well, at this point arbitrageurs own the company. Different than "long-term" shareholders, which have practically ceased to exist. nevertheless they own the stock and should be able to vote at a meeting. I didn't realize that it's now okay to make value judgement about the motives of individual shareholders. arbs tend to vote for shareholder friendly proposals. many of these so called arbs want to be long term shareholders of the combination. simply getting rid of AGN management would create a ton of value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 ISS makes its recommendations: http://ir.valeant.com/investor-relations/news-releases/news-release-details/2014/Institutional-Shareholder-Services-ISS-Recommends-Allergan-Shareholders-Call-A-Special-Meeting-Of-Shareholders/default.aspx Some strong stuff in there: In its report, ISS commented on Valeant's and Allergan's business models and track records: "Many of the initiatives [Allergan] has announced, moreover—reducing R&D and SG&A expense, looking at acquisitions—are strategies Valeant has used to enormous success over the tenure of its current CEO. This suggests both that there is merit in these business strategies, if Allergan can choose as wisely and execute as well and as boldly as Valeant —and also, perhaps, that Allergan's relentless criticism of the Valeant business model is rooted less in the conviction Valeant's model is dangerously flawed than in the conviction anything outside of the defensive perimeter should be scorched."* In addition, ISS criticized Allergan's bylaw provisions: "As a response to the deeper question of why Allergan's bylaw constraints were an appropriate response to the shareholder mandate to provide certain governance rights, by contrast, it appears to have been an exercise in concealing what was never worth finding: the Allergan bylaws are far more restrictive than any of the comparator companies the board apparently reviewed, with no discernable advantage for Allergan shareholders. … The risk from which these bylaws "protect" shareholders, to put it bluntly, is the risk that they will be treated as owners, and asked to make serious and important decisions about the future of their company." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 ISS makes its recommendations: http://ir.valeant.com/investor-relations/news-releases/news-release-details/2014/Institutional-Shareholder-Services-ISS-Recommends-Allergan-Shareholders-Call-A-Special-Meeting-Of-Shareholders/default.aspx Some strong stuff in there: In its report, ISS commented on Valeant's and Allergan's business models and track records: "Many of the initiatives [Allergan] has announced, moreover—reducing R&D and SG&A expense, looking at acquisitions—are strategies Valeant has used to enormous success over the tenure of its current CEO. This suggests both that there is merit in these business strategies, if Allergan can choose as wisely and execute as well and as boldly as Valeant —and also, perhaps, that Allergan's relentless criticism of the Valeant business model is rooted less in the conviction Valeant's model is dangerously flawed than in the conviction anything outside of the defensive perimeter should be scorched."* In addition, ISS criticized Allergan's bylaw provisions: "As a response to the deeper question of why Allergan's bylaw constraints were an appropriate response to the shareholder mandate to provide certain governance rights, by contrast, it appears to have been an exercise in concealing what was never worth finding: the Allergan bylaws are far more restrictive than any of the comparator companies the board apparently reviewed, with no discernable advantage for Allergan shareholders. … The risk from which these bylaws "protect" shareholders, to put it bluntly, is the risk that they will be treated as owners, and asked to make serious and important decisions about the future of their company." Great find. Glad to see ISS endorsing Allergan owners having a vote and throwing a bit of cold water on their stalling tactics. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Did Valeant Make a Strategic Error in Its Allergan Bid? http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/07/dealpolitik-did-valeant-make-a-strategic-error-in-its-allergan-bid/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 More negative press: http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904329504580071540804625172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 More negative press: http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904329504580071540804625172 If Valeant clinches the deal for Allergan, its shares could rally to $200 based on the potential to cut costs dodge U.S. taxes, Tobin says. If it doesn't go through -- and the odds are rising that it won't -- he sees the stock falling to $70. I hope he's right. Either way. Both scenarios sound pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 70 implies 8xfwd 12m cash pe. i.e. no new acquisitions, no organic growth in fact slightly declining core business. Not sure it would reach there, maybe it goes down to 90. Even that would be a tremendous bargain. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Barron's is really showing its true colors getting quotes from Hedgeye analyst. Goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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