giofranchi Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 there is no fuc*&%$ing way that earnings are going to just grow 15%... and the stock only be at $400 because that assumes they make virtually no other acquisitions (or just very small tuck-ins). original mungerville, I just post articles about the businesses I follow... to me they are simply pieces of information... it certainly doesn't mean I agree with everything that is written in those articles! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 there is no fuc*&%$ing way that earnings are going to just grow 15%... and the stock only be at $400 because that assumes they make virtually no other acquisitions (or just very small tuck-ins). original mungerville, I just post articles about the businesses I follow... to me they are simply pieces of information... it certainly doesn't mean I agree with everything that is written in those articles! ;) Cheers, Gio Gio, That was already understood. In no way did I assume you agreed with the entire article! I just was trying to provide a helpful critique of the article - that's all. At its essence, its the same point Ackman is making, the article is giving little to no value to the platform value of Valeant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 Gio, That was already understood. In no way did I assume you agreed with the entire article! ;) I just was trying to provide a helpful critique of the article - that's all. At its essence, its the same point Ackman is making, the article is giving little to no value to the platform value of Valeant. +1! Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 So apparently ValueAct sold 20% of its Valeant stake. Most people seem to be guessing that they might want to buy some FOX with it, or maybe PCP. Mr. Market is going to freak out, of course, despite the fact that ValueAct still has a huge 3.6bn stake that represent a huge part of its AUM and that its cost basis was peanuts and at some point they were going to need to raise cash for other opportunities. Could be a buying opportunity if the over-reaction is big enough. http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1553919/valueact-capital-discloses-sale-of-shares-of-valeant-pharmaceuticals-international-inc ValueAct Capital Management, L.P. announced today that it has sold 4.2 million shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (NYSE: VRX; TSX: VRX) in brokers' transactions on the NYSE. ValueAct Capital's CEO Jeffrey W. Ubben said: "Mike Pearson and the Valeant team's exceptional performance have once again caused our investment in Valeant to grow in value to well above 20% of our funds' assets, and we are again compelled to reduce our position to rebalance our overall portfolio. We have owned Valeant shares for over nine years and have sold shares on three previous occasions for the same portfolio management purposes. After this sale, our investment in Valeant will continue to be well in excess of $3.0bn and will be one of the largest investments in our funds. I look forward to continuing to work with Mike and my fellow members of the Board of Directors." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 11, 2015 Author Share Posted June 11, 2015 Valeant Pharmaceuticals To Appoint Robert L. Rosiello As Chief Financial Officer http://ir.valeant.com/investor-relations/news-releases/news-release-details/2015/Valeant-Pharmaceuticals-To-Appoint-Robert-L-Rosiello-As-Chief-Financial-Officer/default.aspx Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Wow, from the mckinsey stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Market seems to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Market seems to like it. Either that, or the selling pressure from ValueAct is gone so it's back to climbing. Probably a bit of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Market seems to like it. Either that, or the selling pressure from ValueAct is gone so it's back to climbing. Probably a bit of both. Actually Pearson alluded to this in one of the recent interviews ... said something like our problem is that our large shareholders end up overweight and always have to sell! Its tough when you have so much success! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Interview with Jeff Ubben, now on VRX's board (and of course a very large shareholder via ValueAct): http://www.hedgeroll.com/hedgeroll/long-form-interview-with-valueacts-jeffrey-ubben Also: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/06/16/valueacts-2100-return-on-valeant/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-16/valeant-said-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-egypt-drugmaker-amoun Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. is in advanced negotiations to acquire Egyptian drugmaker Amoun Pharmaceutical Co. as it seeks to expand into emerging markets, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The drugmaker, based in Laval, Quebec, may reach an agreement with Amoun’s shareholders in the coming weeks, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. No final decision has been made and any deal may still fall apart, they said. A sale of Amoun could value the company at $700 million to $800 million, people familiar with the matter said in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like the new VRX CFO bought 12,900 shares in the open market for $232.51 USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like the new VRX CFO bought 12,900 shares in the open market for $232.51 USD. Good to know! :) Thank you, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is from the fall of 2014, but I think I missed it then. Interview with Pearson, some good stuff where he explains what he did so far and the strategy: http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3376350/banking-and-capital-markets-corporations/mike-pearsons-new-prescription-for-the-pharmaceuticals-industry.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Valeant and Progenics Announce the Submission of U.S. New Drug Application for Oral RELISTOR® http://ir.valeant.com/investor-relations/news-releases/news-release-details/2015/Valeant-and-Progenics-Announce-the-Submission-of-US-New-Drug-Application-for-Oral-RELISTOR/default.aspx Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/news/2598265-healthcare-stock-screen-of-the-month-low-peg-ratio?uprof=25#email_link Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 WSJ: "Breaking: Valeant has made a preliminary takeover approach to animal-health company Zoetis." Never boring (if true). http://www.wsj.com/articles/valeant-makes-takeover-approach-to-zoetis-1435262327 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 WSJ: "Breaking: Valeant has made a preliminary takeover approach to animal-health company Zoetis." Never boring (if true). Ah!... I think I saw this coming... Though I would not have imagined it might have come so soon! ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well, I am skeptical that this is real. I see absolutely no reason to trade VRX equity for ZTS. I haven't done tons of work on ZTS, but from my analysis it appears to be a structurally lower gross margin business than VRX base business, much less Salix. Plus, the organic growth of ZTS seems lower than even a more normalized VRX organic growth rate, much less the growth rate that is going to exist the next few years with Salix. Even if you cut SG&A and R&D, I doubt that will get you to the VRX target margin (i.e. 50% Adj EBITDA). So, why would Pearson trade VRX equity, representing higher growth and higher margin, for ZTS equity which is lower margin and lower growth when ZTS already has a big takeout premium baked into the valuation? I would seriously question my VRX investment if this deal is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 So does preliminary approach mean that Ackman called VRX and said "hey, I've got another great piece of merchandise for you." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 can anyone come up with a way i can understand VRX's valuation? I know there's a great capital allocator at the helm, Ackman thinks shares are undervalued, and the company doesn't want to issue stock... I just don't understand why VRX is worth $100B enterprise value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 can anyone come up with a way i can understand VRX's valuation? http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Castle-in-the-Air_Theory http://reflexivityfinance.blogspot.com/2009/01/reflexivity-in-financial-markets-its.html http://financetrain.com/ma-earnings-per-share-the-bootsrap-effect/ ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 can anyone come up with a way i can understand VRX's valuation? http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Castle-in-the-Air_Theory http://reflexivityfinance.blogspot.com/2009/01/reflexivity-in-financial-markets-its.html http://financetrain.com/ma-earnings-per-share-the-bootsrap-effect/ ;D Why don't you short it? ;) I'm sure that Ackman, Sequoia, ValueAct, Glenn Grenberg, and Lou Simpson are all incapable of doing due diligence and looking through accounting to real economics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 can anyone come up with a way i can understand VRX's valuation? http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Castle-in-the-Air_Theory http://reflexivityfinance.blogspot.com/2009/01/reflexivity-in-financial-markets-its.html http://financetrain.com/ma-earnings-per-share-the-bootsrap-effect/ ;D Good links. +1 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 can anyone come up with a way i can understand VRX's valuation? http://finance.wikia.com/wiki/Castle-in-the-Air_Theory http://reflexivityfinance.blogspot.com/2009/01/reflexivity-in-financial-markets-its.html http://financetrain.com/ma-earnings-per-share-the-bootsrap-effect/ ;D Why don't you short it? ;) I'm sure that Ackman, Sequoia, ValueAct, Glenn Grenberg, and Lou Simpson are all incapable of doing due diligence and looking through accounting to real economics... I will only short it once 1) Gio mentions that Pearson is an entrepreneur and a business man and there are 10 trillion pharma companies out there, ergo stock will provide 15% CAGR in perpetuity 2) 4-5 additional Tiger cubs buy it and trip over themselves to divine higher price targets than the other 3) Ackman makes at least another billion front running them 4) the company seduces the ultimate unicorn, Warren Buffett If all these happen I will short it. Until then, I'll let those far more knowledgeable and less jocular than I explain why this thang is worth 100 bilskys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now