merkhet Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea. It seems like he is being opportunistic despite the article portraying him as innocent. Maybe he started off worried, but my guess is he landed on opportunism in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/valeant-wall-st-darling-to-pariah.html?mid=twitter-share-di Our answers to the whole Reitz drama. Eric you can take off your Nancy Drew underwear at this point. Mystery is solved. Reitz seems just as sleezy as Philidor. I personally don't buy the nice guy act. Amazing how that was the catalyst for this disaster. Munger’s comments exposed a rift in the value-investing community, but didn’t affect Valeant’s stock. It continued to rise, hitting an all-time high on August 5 of $263 per share, 15 times what Sequoia had originally paid for it. A week later, a Bloomberg News article observed that, owing almost entirely to this one investment, Sequoia had outperformed both the S&P 500 and 99 percent of all other American mutual funds. Berkshire Hathaway, meanwhile, had lagged. Sequoia had sold it at just the right time. Has Sequoia sold? The article makes it sound like they got out right at the top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Munger’s comments exposed a rift in the value-investing community, but didn’t affect Valeant’s stock. It continued to rise, hitting an all-time high on August 5 of $263 per share, 15 times what Sequoia had originally paid for it. A week later, a Bloomberg News article observed that, owing almost entirely to this one investment, Sequoia had outperformed both the S&P 500 and 99 percent of all other American mutual funds. Berkshire Hathaway, meanwhile, had lagged. Sequoia had sold it at just the right time. Has Sequoia sold? The article makes it sound like they got out right at the top? No. They sold BRK at "just the right time". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Maybe someone needs to do some more reading comprehension.....journalism has gotten so sensationalist. Other than that quip its a pretty good article for someone who doesn't follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/31/activist-ackman-trims-valeant-stake-to-85.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiveSigma Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's last year's news, Muscleman ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://ir.valeant.com/news-releases/2016/01-25-2016-120434461 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Weirdest PSQ letter ever. http://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/2014/09/Pershing-Square-2015-Annual-Letter-PSH-January-26-2016.pdf Supposedly VRX was working on a big deal when it was trading in the mid-200's. If that is true then Hilary Clinton and Martin Shkreli handed VRX the worlds biggest cock block. Ackman would also like you guys to know that your margin calls made his performance extra shitty. Perhaps the largest correlation in our portfolio is one that we have not previously considered; that is, the fact that we own large stakes in each of these companies. We have had the benefit of a “following” of investors who track and own many of our holdings. This has given us significantly greater clout than is reflected by our percentage ownership of these companies, and we believe that it is partially what has caused the “pop” in market price when we announce a new active investment. As a result, these active managers’ performance is often closely tied with ours. When Valeant’s stock price collapsed, our performance, and that of Pershing Square followers, were dramatically affected. Nearly all of these investment managers are subject to daily, monthly, and quarterly redemptions, and therefore, many were likely forced to liquidate substantial portions of their holdings which overlap with our own. My distaste for Ackman seems to go up every year. I should go back and find my comments on PSH when he did the IPO. I recall saying this would be how the guy blows up and here it is playing out. Edit: Here's that lovely thread. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/pershing-square-holdings-debuts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorsiacapital Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 What is your a priori market justification for why Valeant is entitled to realize any increases in net prices on drugs for which there are much cheaper, chemically identical alternatives available? I would say in a functioning market, Valeant would realize significant decreases in net prices on these products. They took price increases because the demand was there at the higher price. Theoretically that's exactly what a corporation then should do. The problem is that their products are health-related and therefore are so important to their consumers that the decisions shouldn't be purely about the economics. For moral reasons it's important that the drugs stay affordable to patients. I think Valeant is addressing your concerns well with the Walgreens deal which makes it a lot more about volume growth than price. With that they realize significant decreases in net prices on products where generic competition is available. I also think Marathon is not a tiny part of their cash flow business. Valeant bought Marathon for $286 million not long ago if I remember correctly. To argue that it's not a tiny part of their business you would have to say that they made an incredibly good deal (just from a financial standpoint) and I really doubt you'd say that. It would already have to be worth multiples of what they paid for it. We now have some actual information about the deal that Valeant made http://democrats.oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/documents/Memo%20on%20Valeant%20Documents0.pdf Valeant got 99% gross margins on Nitropress and Isuprel "On March 24, 2015, after Valeant purchased the drugs, an outside consultant sent an email to Andrew Davis, Valeant’s Senior Vice President for Business Development, writing: “Are you ok with the above assumptions? They are leading to high gross margins (more than 99%).” Mr. Davis replied: “Standard costs looks right, and I’m not surprised they are extremely profitable." Nitropress and Isuprel were the top two ebitda contributors in 1q 2015 (and I wouldn't be surprised if they were second and third after Jublia got released) On July 21, 2015, an investment banking advisory firm analyst emailed Laurie Little, the Senior Vice President for Investor Relations, writing: “I’ve tried to break down Valeant’s upcoming quarterly earnings into key drivers.” Describing Isuprel and Nitropress, he wrote: “These products have become a meaningful part of EBIDTA [Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation, and Amortization] … in 1Q15, Marathon products were top 2 products for Valeant!” Valeant expects competition as other generics get approved in 2016/2017 "A similar presentation provided by the same outside consultant almost a year later, on November 3, 2015, stated: “Valeant should prepare for several generic nitroprusside [Nitropress] approvals and at least one generic isoproterenol [isuprel] approval towards the end of 2016 and expect at least four generic players for nitroprusside and two for isoproterenol by year end 2017. With the increased staff and efficiencies finally bearing fruit at the FDA, an approval could occur earlier in 2016.” So yes, Valeant did make an incredibly good business deal - they paid about 300 million for the Nitropress/Isuprel assets, and they will make almost double that just in 2015 revenues "An undated presentation summarizing Valeant’s neurology business unit showed the “Top 10 brands responsible for 63% of revenue.” Isuprel, the first drug listed, had a “FY 2015 Plan Revenue” of “$279.30” million and a “Revenue Contribution” of “14.52%.” Nitropress, the third drug listed, had a “FY 2015 Plan Revenue” of “$245.52” million and a “Revenue Contribution” of “12.76%.” Now, whether that will be long term good for their overall business model remains to be determined.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Berkowitz bought Valeant equity and debt per the Fairholme Funds annual reports (dated 11/30/15): http://www.fairholmefunds.com/reportsmgt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Berkowitz bought Valeant equity and debt per the Fairholme Funds annual reports (dated 11/30/15): http://www.fairholmefunds.com/reportsmgt Looks like The Fairholme Fund and The Fairholme Income Fund hold debt, and The Fairholme Allocation Fund holds equity. Wonder why the main fund doesn't hold equity. There was certainly enough volume in the last quarter for them to accumulate a position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 In my opinion, he has been keeping a higher risk profile in FAAFX since inception than FAIRX. For whatever reason he seems to be positioning it to be most leveraged to the upside assuming he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Looks like Lou Simpson added a bit last qtr: http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=SQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/express-scripts-giving-extra-scrutiny-to-valeant-prescriptions “We are looking at every single claim for their products,” Steve Miller, chief medical officer for Express Scripts, said in an interview Friday at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “They are getting extra scrutiny.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Why would Valeant go on a spending spree like it has in the last few years? The whole controversy aside whats there to gain from it? They must see something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I wonder if Ackman wakes up screaming in the middle of the night.... "JUBLIA! JUBLIAAAA!!" His wife is probably wondering who this Julia lady is that her husband keeps having nightmares about. Anyone still long or going long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I find it a fascinating story but have been on the sidelines and going to keep it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Closed my short today... should have stayed one more day... :( Mostly in the too hard pile for me at these prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matts Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 WSJ: Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. likely needs to restate some of its previous financial results based on the findings of an internal investigation into its business, according to people familiar with the matter. http://www.wsj.com/articles/valeant-likelytorestate-earnings-in-wake-of-internal-review-1456178834 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 i'm starting my position again. with bac down significantly, i sold my vrx earlier this month to help fund my bac purchases. i'm happy to have the opportunity to buy vrx at $70 and under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 http://ir.valeant.com/news-releases/2016/02-23-2016-031141315 If you really think 58m is the end of this ordeal, well, you know the offer is always on the table for a bridge connecting two largely populated centers in nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Does this change your view on VRX's real revenue power down the road? More will come? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/cvs-targets-valeant-s-1-000-nail-fungus-drug-with-restrictions?cmpid=yhoo.headline i'm starting my position again. with bac down significantly, i sold my vrx earlier this month to help fund my bac purchases. i'm happy to have the opportunity to buy vrx at $70 and under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Does this change your view on VRX's real revenue power down the road? More will come? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/cvs-targets-valeant-s-1-000-nail-fungus-drug-with-restrictions?cmpid=yhoo.headline i'm starting my position again. with bac down significantly, i sold my vrx earlier this month to help fund my bac purchases. i'm happy to have the opportunity to buy vrx at $70 and under. Not Rasputin, but based on his posts, I think he did the work and is cognizant of the risks. This to me looks like an obvious short or a complicated long meaning the short thesis is very simple (things are bad and going to get worse) whereas the long side requires a pretty deep understanding of a lot of points. I believe the long side a little more and I am watching because this may prove to be the "Tyco" of the platform cycle. There's a lot of valuable businesses within VRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Does this change your view on VRX's real revenue power down the road? More will come? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/cvs-targets-valeant-s-1-000-nail-fungus-drug-with-restrictions?cmpid=yhoo.headline i'm starting my position again. with bac down significantly, i sold my vrx earlier this month to help fund my bac purchases. i'm happy to have the opportunity to buy vrx at $70 and under. Hi plato, My worst case scenario of $5 B ebitda/$7 fcf per share already insta-kill jublia. I think VRX can grow over time from this baseline. In some way, this reminds me of BAC battle with Fannie Mae. For a period, BAC only dealt with Freddie Mac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm still short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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