ourkid8 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wouldn't this have been the perfect opportunity to announce on the press release you are aggressively repurchasing stock at the current price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Jeff Ubben is no longer on the board As to how Pearson appears. You'd be amazed at some of the folks in federal penitentiaries. How does one look like a criminal? VRX has always filed their 10-Q the day after their press release and CC. 2Q15 took 4 business days to file it. I was also being some what tongue-in-check because Enron blew up when an analyst asked for a balance sheet and Skilling lost his mind. https://bizgovsociii.wordpress.com/2012/02/07/the-asshole-story-enron-skilling-and-research-process/ Grubman: You’re the only financial institution that cannot produce a balance sheet or cash flow statement with their earnings. There is more to come with VRX. Just my opinion. So far, it looks like Citron has only published what they can prove. The short thesis (or facts) are changing because it is hard to prove what isn't being disclosed. This will not be the first accounting scandal for two folks on VRX's BOD. Norma's expertise is interesting.Norma_Provencio_-_Managing_Crisis.DOC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 It looks like the big value hedge funds (Sequoia, SQ Advisors, Weitz, ValueAct) that hold VRX mostly purchased in the $50's and are simply giving back gains. On the other hand, Bill Ackman should be feeling the pain since he only recently purchased his stake in the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wouldn't this have been the perfect opportunity to announce on the press release you are aggressively repurchasing stock at the current price? Not sure they are permitted to right now - just after earnings release. Typical timing for bear raids. Get the maximum drop out of the stock price. Anyway, I would like them to focus on debt repayment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 you're right, ubben not on the board, though valueact's robert hale is i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intothebreach Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Bought a few 2018 leaps. Seemed to me like panic selling. But I've not dug deep into this as others have. The outcome does appear to be binary though: if it's not a fraud, massive funds will probably be adding (or outright buying...). Sure is an interesting ride for a pharma company! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Valeant can actually buy shares in the market today if they wanted to. They just don't have a lot of capacity to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Bought a few 2018 leaps. Seemed to me like panic selling. But I've not dug deep into this as others have. The outcome does appear to be binary though: if it's not a fraud, massive funds will probably be adding (or outright buying...). Sure is an interesting ride for a pharma company! Why is the outcome binary? If it is a fraud, the shorts should have put a 0 price target on it, they put a $50 price target. Clearly B&L and some of the other products have value... I think with todays' price action, the weak longs are mostly wiped off. It was panic selling (look at the volume today vs avg volume) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wouldn't this have been the perfect opportunity to announce on the press release you are aggressively repurchasing stock at the current price? Not sure they are permitted to right now - just after earnings release. Typical timing for bear raids. Get the maximum drop out of the stock price. Anyway, I would like them to focus on debt repayment. Well what money are they gonna buy the stock back with? Also looks like the bond market may be closed to them for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wouldn't this have been the perfect opportunity to announce on the press release you are aggressively repurchasing stock at the current price? Not sure they are permitted to right now - just after earnings release. Typical timing for bear raids. Get the maximum drop out of the stock price. Anyway, I would like them to focus on debt repayment. Well what money are they gonna buy the stock back with? Also looks like the bond market may be closed to them for a while. Agreed on bond markets. There doesn't have to be fraud for this to go to zero. The stock was overpriced based on a misleading metric. If it is repriced based on real FCF, then this is a $10b-$15b EV company. With $28b in net debt and no means of refinancing at the same rates, you have a problem. VRX lost value with paying full price for businesses that didn't perform that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intothebreach Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Why is the outcome binary? Just my simplistic way of presenting how I viewed my leaps purchase. Fraud would eventually end down a lot more, while a legit business recovers all the panic selling. Once that's done, then i agree that there a lot more possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 schwab, here's some info on andrew left, the guy behind today's citron report: In 1998, Left was found by the National Futures Association to have “made false and misleading statements to cheat, defraud or deceive a customer", and disbarred for three years.[43] In 2002, his then employer Detour Media sued Left for "fraud and deceit, negligent misrepresentation, breach of fiduciary duty and unlawful monetary conversion".[44] He was ordered to pay $26,445.62 compensation.[45] In 2010, Left was briefly arrested in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Naturally im attracted to all the hubub(go figure right?)..... and I'm sure its somewhere in the topic. One of you guys might know better where it is but.....anyone got a link to the citron report? Edit: Nevermind i got it. Didnt realize it came out today #NoDogInThisFight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I think you all are obsessing over Valeant a bit much. Stocks go up, stocks go down... if you didn't make this 20% of your portfolio, why bother stressing about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I think that was a good initial response by the company, if a bit slow on the line. For all we know they were on a plane to the Middle-East to go meet Amoun management or whatever (that deal was about to close)... Next, I'm looking forward to a more in-depth media interview with management so they can go in more detail and defend themselves more fully. I wouldn't be surprised if Ackman came out. Who knows, maybe they can even teach the shorts about these new-fangled things called "call centers" and "outsourced IT services". Days like today are always humbling, because you can have a lot of confidence in an idea, but when the price is moving against you a percent a second, your reptilian brain kicks in and it's really easy to want to join the panic. I didn't do anything, and maybe not joining the panic will later be revealed to be a mistake, but time will tell once the dust has settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 If this is correct, Ackman has bought 2m additional VRX shares: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I think that was a good initial response by the company, if a bit slow on the line. For all we know they were on a plane to the Middle-East to go meet Amoun management or whatever (that deal was about to close)... Next, I'm looking forward to a more in-depth media interview with management so they can go in more detail and defend themselves more fully. I wouldn't be surprised if Ackman came out. Who knows, maybe they can even teach the shorts about these new-fangled things called "call centers" and "outsourced IT services". Days like today are always humbling, because you can have a lot of confidence in an idea, but when the price is moving against you a percent a second, your reptilian brain kicks in and it's really easy to want to join the panic. I didn't do anything, and maybe not joining the panic will later be revealed to be a mistake, but time will tell once the dust has settled. +1. I didn't buy or sell. Still just holding. Isn't that all I ever do? heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 That Ackman response just shows how it's run out of buyers. 2mm shares is nothing compared to his total position. A drop in the bucket compared to volume of 70mm shares. You'd think a 50% drop would warrant more than a 10% increase in size. This is going to be a long road to recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 valeant was also a huge portion of his fund, around 30% i believe, already. to a certain extent, he has to control exposure for his shareholders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 well it's going up pretty fast now. this is definitely a weird stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cogitator8 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I would love to own VRX for $50 or less with no debt ! In Valeant's case their debt will be their biggest enemy ! Time will tell but at this point it is a falling knife. What is helpful is to see these things unfold, make notes and periodically read those notes to keep one grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luck Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 weird indeed, 88 to 122 in a few hours. day traders are probably going to cover from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 That Ackman response just shows how it's run out of buyers. 2mm shares is nothing compared to his total position. A drop in the bucket compared to volume of 70mm shares. You'd think a 50% drop would warrant more than a 10% increase in size. This is going to be a long road to recovery. I think it works as a confidence signal. If he was losing confidence or regretting his investment, he probably wouldn't put a few hundred millions in at a day's notice. VRX is already a huge part of his portfolio, so I doubt we'll see him increase much more. But it's still real money, even for him. But I agree with your general point that big buyers are mostly tapped out. At these prices, I'm almost certain that the company will start buying back stock and/or debt when their window reopens. That won't make a huge difference, but if stock is truly well below IV, that will create good value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Days like today are always humbling, because you can have a lot of confidence in an idea, but when the price is moving against you a percent a second, your reptilian brain kicks in and it's really easy to want to join the panic. I didn't do anything, and maybe not joining the panic will later be revealed to be a mistake, but time will tell once the dust has settled. Yes, I sold. Felt really smart for a few hours. Then bought back half at a higher price. This is why Guy Spier doesn't trade during market hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cogitator8 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I just have deep distaste for VRX business model, they don't believe in R&D, just buy cheap dugs and jack up the prices. There will be lot of bad news for this puppy, I don't care if Ackman bought in, he is just trying to save his face. I will be a buyer if Klarman or Buffett will buy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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