original mungerville Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe i'm an idiot, but at $61 a share, I bought a little. It might be a binary bet, if it survives, should be a nice rebound within 6 months. Maybe you aren't. Apparently Pearson told analysts female viagra a flop, but Walgreens alliance doing better than expected: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/valeant-ceo-calls-sell-side-analysts-saying-he-needs-time?cmpid=yhoo.headline Walgreen alliance doing better than expected seems to be pretty good news to me - given its the replacement for Philidor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 By the way, Lou Simpson, Ackman, Sequoia, etc, etc probably all also read AZ Value's blog. You guys make it sound like it was obvious now. I think the short thesis was severely flawed and remains so - they got lucky, in my opinion, to a large degree with the California lawsuit re Philidor. This did, however, uncovered real problems with Valeant's business model / aggressiveness / sustainability. In my opinion, many of you are confusing AZ Value's (ie Hempton's in disguise) shit analysis with the above. I had the extra bias having dealt with Hempton in the past and seeing the type of crap he tries to make stick passing it as certainty / good analysis. That history, along with not picking up on the fact that the decentralised model / aggressiveness combination could really backfire is what caught me off guard. I thought the debt was the main risk, which if combined with a screw-up, could really cause problems - which is why I bought the calls rather than the stock from the beginning. I certainly did not "anchor" on AZ Value's shit IRR calculations - trust me. I was trying to point out to the board that the guy was being as aggressive with his "analysis" as Pearson was with the business. Again, every hedge fund, Lou Simpson, Ackman, Sequoia, etc also looked at that analysis... Last but not least, at this point there could be another problem that comes out and the stock could decline significantly, or not and all the bad stuff is out and the stock could double or even triple from here in a few years (assuming the stock market holds together). We just don't know. 'Shit analysis' 'Ackman Criticizes Citron's Short-Selling Style Bill Ackman criticizes the short-selling strategy of Andrew Left of Citron Research. ... ...the right type of short seller: Mr. Ackman himself, according to Mr. Ackman. He cites his position in Herbalife, the massive amounts of information he put forth and his clear disclosure of his postion. He also credits John Hempton of Bronte Capital: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/ Mr. Ackman says he doesn’t agree with all of his conclusions but he’s done good work. So has the media, he says. Valeant’s stock continues to fall. It’s now below $100, down 11% to $99 now. ' Just stop talking. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/10/30/bill-ackmans-call-with-valeant-pre-game-analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yup, Ackman is going to be in big trouble if this continues. On top of all that, he went big on all these other platform companies many of which rely on debt/junk debt to finance expansion, etc. Its a big gamble when buying and selling options on Valeant as well. Valeant was actually my macro hedge (correct view) with a micro screw-up (my incorrect analysis). Ackman seems like he went all-in on the macro side with his only hedge being a short on the Yuan. It seems too concentrated. Actually Ray Dalio alluded to this concentration this fall when he responded to Ackman on some panel they were on together - but Ackman didn't seem to take it into consideration. Anyone catch that? Just my opinion, but I would not consider Ackman to be a value investor - he is a gambler, imo. The stuff he buys has no downside protection, he is looking for huge lottery wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I find it amazing that all the folks that had me in awe are fallen angels: heebner, bill miller, berkowitz, einhorne, ackman,..... i think history will show these guys had great runs cos they got very lucky for a long time, and they are rich cos they got they 1/25 incentive fees.... but to manage personal money over a lifetime, that isn't the way to do it, I think I am finally learning that the hard way..... it is ok to lag the market 1,2, or 5 years if you avoid the downside and yet you will still come out on top in your deathbed someone said WEB disaparged Schloss, man that kind of person comes once a decade... maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. Good point and in general I agree with you. What keeps me from even considering VRX is management's shadiness. Intellectually, that seems like a pretty decent reason to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. Really? You don't think the multiple downward revisions to guidance, an announcement of an SEC investigation and Hillary Clinton promising to crack down on Valeant (given that she mentioned the company by name) would have an impact on intrinsic value? Those aren't red flags to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. Really? You don't think the multiple downward revisions to guidance, an announcement of an SEC investigation and Hillary Clinton promising to crack down on Valeant (given that she mentioned the company by name) would have an impact on intrinsic value? Those aren't red flags to you? We might be at the point of maximum pessimism whether you love or hate Valeant/Pearson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. do you mind sharing what's the value of VRX and how you do you get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. I think you are selectively applying Buffett discipline and ignoring where he would stand with this kind of investment, also ignoring the fact that his partner publicly questioned this company's pursuit of eps at any cost. The fact that a majority of Buffett disciples here would stay away from this doesn't seem to stand out for you. In any case I wish you good luck on this trade and hopefully you continue to stay impressed with business performance in the short run while the business itself is questionable in the long run if the house is not thoroughly cleaned. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. do you mind sharing what's the value of VRX and how you do you get that? I posted it in the past within this thread. You can view my posts from my profile. My view hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 My two cents: I don't think we are anywhere near max point of pessimism on VRX. Check out OCN, people said we were at max pessimism every 5 points down since 25. Stock hit 2 today. When Brave Warrior, Viking, Simpson, etc, etc, all throw in the towel, then we might be a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who the hell is buying this thing at this point. Not Ackman, not Sequoia that's for sure. Nobody who follows Buffett/Munger. Analyst ratings are all being cut. Delayed financials and guidance, SEC investigation, and even a Hillary commitment to go after them. So was that the low today? Is it time to buy? Or is this thing going lower in the next week or two prior to the financials being released? Do we really think with an SEC investigation underway that the board is going to hide major problems at this point? I'm buying. My limit order at $60 went through today. As a Buffett disciple, I don't take guidance from the fluctuation of VRX stock price (or bonds or CDS) or any analysts' reports (upgrades/downgrades/no coverage). The only thing that I care about is the business performance (B+L, GI, Derm+SkinCare, Oncology+Dentistry+W Health+Neuro etc, Emerging markets). I'd love it if the VRX stock price continues to decline. This board is supposed to be Corner of Berkshire, but the discussions that i've seen so far have nothing to do with VRX business performance. Really? You don't think the multiple downward revisions to guidance, an announcement of an SEC investigation and Hillary Clinton promising to crack down on Valeant (given that she mentioned the company by name) would have an impact on intrinsic value? Those aren't red flags to you? Nope. I used very conservative assumptions that resulted in numbers far below their last guidance. I've seen the SEC investigates many companies (including Buffett himself, Blue Chip Stamps, General Re) and as long as no fraud is uncovered, and the company's business performs, those companies move on. With Hillary, there are limits to what even a President can do. I trust VRX management will settle this issue, just like BAC did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccplz Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 How can you tell if the numbers are conservative if you don't even know if they can be trusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I am shocked this isn't back at the top of the page given the news that BoD member and head of derm/gast business lines suddenly resigned today. I am still waiting for a good answer on what will finally push Ackman over the edge and force him to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasputin Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I am shocked this isn't back at the top of the page given the news that BoD member and head of derm/gast business lines suddenly resigned today. I am still waiting for a good answer on what will finally push Ackman over the edge and force him to sell. she was not on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You are correct, my bad, here is her bio. Deb Jorn was appointed Executive Vice President and Company Group Chairman, as well as Chief Launch Officer, with responsibility for all major U.S. product launches, in May 2015. In addition, she continues to serve as General Manager of the U.S. Dermatology business, where she has performed an outstanding job of revitalizing operations and as the driving force behind the successful launches of Jublia® and Luzu®. Ms. Jorn joined Valeant from Bausch + Lomb, where she served as Vice President, Global Marketing for five years. Prior to Bausch + Lomb, she was with Schering-Plough for more than five years as Vice President, Women’s Healthcare and Fertility, and Vice President, Allergy, Respiratory and Urology. Ms. Jorn also served as Worldwide Vice President, Internal Medicine at Johnson & Johnson, and Global Vice President, Urology with Pharmacia. Additionally, Ms. Jorn spent more than 20 years with Merck in a variety of senior marketing positions, including Executive Director, Respiratory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Agreed, imo to go long on a company with this kind of news you need to buy at a low single digit multiple of earnings (accounting earnings, not "adjusted" or "cash") or a similar valuation given your favored metric or method, and hope to hell profits don't crater and the co remains a going concern. I know nothing about this company but I can tell you the stink is strong, why buy at this price with so much stink even if you're a bull and see a diamond in the dirt, I guarantee you the market will give you a better price than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Low multiple is one thing, but there is such an amount of debt overhang.. What happens when credit agencies start to revise Valeant's rating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sure, but my comment is not pointed towards the investment case but price action, I guess you can call it the technicals... Any bad news will bring price down substantially and any good news will need to be a grand slam to move to the upside... No point being a buyer right now, bull or not, it's too early. I mean that's not a fact I'm stating, just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Recent exemple of the point I am trying to make: LL is trading at 5x pre-scandal earnings right now, bulls might eventually be right (in LL's case I guess they might have already been shown wrong, but humor me) but if they bought for 4x more expensive imo they will still have made a mistake. It's normal to draw down on a dirty investment but such a large drop (which btw is not even certain to be the bottom end of it) means there is a mistake made somewhere, no questions asked. That's too much upside left on the table to not be deemed an erroneously early entry, even if they are eventually right about the company's prospects. Market valuation of this security, at least on a superficial level (which matters as many will sell based on this superficial level), is clearly too rich still for entry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 I meant to answer the "why is $60 so important" before but got a little busy. Of course nothing "magical" happens at $60 but you have to understand how markets trade. Ackman sold euro style put options that will already cost him a pretty penny to close out, but a move under $60 starts increasing that cost on a dollar for dollar basis versus some mark to market on more volatility. He mentioned on his last call that he's fully invested (they used whatever last bit of cash they had to buy more VRX). YOU NEVER TELL THE MARKET THAT. Ever. For the same reason you don't tell people you're short 80% of the float on a stock using a ton of margin. You're asking to get screwed. So if VRX goes under $60, every other hedge fund with a good risk manager knows that the biggest holder of VRX is in trouble. He either needs to sell other positions to meet collateral calls or he needs to blow out of his options. We've already seen how the market reactions to Ackman getting in and out of these option trades (it moves close to 20% each time). So if that's happening again why would any hedge fund no matter how much they like VRX stay in the trade when they already have a big position (pretty much all added in 4Q) and they can't buy more? It's a gtfo or get tapped on the shoulder by your risk manager trade. Everyone is going to try and front run Ackman blowing out of his options and it'll put even more pressure on Ackman to get out. Nevermind whatever other risk is out there (accounting firm resigns, name your crazy event here) that will only cause this to get even more painful. Anyway I know we're corner of berkshire guys but that's what we're looking at going long just above where Ackman loses a ton. I don't see how one can look at everything that has gone on with this business over the past year or so and say you can trust the numbers. Who knows, maybe this thing trades down to $50 and nothing happens. Maybe all the other weak, concentrated VRX funds already blew out. We shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 the perils of cloning... http://dontfuckwithdonville.blogspot.ca/2016/03/what-fuck.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 I saw that Donville interview and then scaled up my VRX short. Donville is the kind of contrarian indicator that you want to bet against. I just hope that Donville's investors noticed and redeemed. That's not the guy you want managing your money, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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