Ballinvarosig Investors Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 He is clearly joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Joking aside, why not? Maybe Pearson is incapable of thinking outside of the box at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I just remembered there was a skin cream that I used to pay $20 or so. Then in 2013, I paid $340 as I use high deductible insurance. The label has "Valeant" on it. I hope politicians come in and regulate the price of these drugs to make it more affordable. On the other hand, if VRX's drugs price drop from $340 to $50, they will definitely be killed. Does anyone expect the corrupt politicians to actually take actions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 He is clearly joking. Good thing you point that out or else I also cannot tell. (There is no way of saying this without sounding sarcastic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I think the next step is to not bother filing the 10K. Who needs those silly things anyway? Let the debt holders cry out "default" and "covenants" while they puke the bonds at 30 cents on the dollar. Pearson is on some 3D chess/AlphaGo strategy where he can put in a tender offer to buy up that defaulted debt at 40 cents and be in a great position to pay down all that debt. Some skate to the hockey puck, others skate to where the puck is going to be. Pearson is too smart for all that nonsense. He just walks up to the field goal and throws in the pucks one at a time. Winners game the play, not play the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 2023 bonds trading at 75 now - surely that is the best way to trade this one. Even if the equity turns out to be a terrible investment, there is surely enough cash flow to cover the debt. Even assuming that litigation happens, and the company is forced to re-price, you'd have to imagine it could take years for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Some skate to the hockey puck, others skate to where the puck is going to be. Pearson is too smart for all that nonsense. He just walks up to the field goal and throws in the pucks one at a time. Winners game the play, not play the game. Classic! I am waiting for some great memes about Pearson that Ackman can use in his annual report or investor letter. I remember how a few months ago he equated Citron report to Amex salad oil scandal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I think the next step is to not bother filing the 10K. Who needs those silly things anyway? Let the debt holders cry out "default" and "covenants" while they puke the bonds at 30 cents on the dollar. Pearson is on some 3D chess/AlphaGo strategy where he can put in a tender offer to buy up that defaulted debt at 40 cents and be in a great position to pay down all that debt. Some skate to the hockey puck, others skate to where the puck is going to be. Pearson is too smart for all that nonsense. He just walks up to the field goal and throws in the pucks one at a time. Winners game the play, not play the game. You're killing me! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-he-will-take-more-proactive-role-in-managing-valeant-investment-2016-03-15 No Kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-he-will-take-more-proactive-role-in-managing-valeant-investment-2016-03-15 No Kidding Hopefully not as proactive as his role in managing Herbalife! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorsiacapital Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Amen Picasso, now you get it. Buybacks are so 2000 and late. (Not that valeant ever did them anyway). Fooling bondholders into thinking bankruptcy is imminent so you can buy debt super cheap is Outsider 2.0: leveraging to delever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorsiacapital Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I will actually say when I started on this I thought 40ish was a reasonable price so in a Way I admire Rasputin deciding to go in. But, I would wonder how strong cash flow is when they are drawing down their revolver in order to pay debt maturing. And of course, still have the heard anyone explain why the 15 billion for Salix isn't a real amortization expense especially after Allergan filed an Anda. Xifaxan is allegedly on track to do 1 billion in sales. If it ramps us to 2 billion but then allergan goes on market in 2019 then that is a lot of debt in the hole. And on a product level, Jublia and Solodoyn are getting destroyed, Glumetza is going generic, questions about Wellbutrin rebursement, and the Shkreli drugs (250 million of revenues) are one FDA letter away from getting wiped. But sure the ebitda is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 dorsia, you couldn't be more wrong about Salix/Xifaxan. Clearly this is just a clever bear raid by John Hempton who took on a side gig as an R&D scientist at Allergan. He toiled away for months, shit posting on Cafe Pharma during lunch breaks, and eventually coming up with the Xifaxan killer. What better way to show the nonsense of free cash flow in this kind of pharma business than to deliver the dagger yourself? And nevermind the brand value attached to the Xifaxan pink fellow. Have you see how adorable that guy is? Think about the theme parks and Halloween licensing potential from that asset. Even if (and it's a big "if") Xifaxan has real, massive amortization expense, I think the brand value of the pink Mr. Xifaxan provides downside support on the stock price. Sir, do you even understand the platform value of this cuddly creature? Oddly enough, he appears to be a VRX shareholder... Perhaps the secret master plan was to give VRX shareholders massive IBS from seeing their stock prices dive 50%, to drive sales of Xifaxan! I can't even get on Pearson's level... A visionary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accutronman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 dorsia, you couldn't be more wrong about Salix/Xifaxan. Clearly this is just a clever bear raid by John Hempton who took on a side gig as an R&D scientist at Allergan. He toiled away for months, shit posting on Cafe Pharma during lunch breaks, and eventually coming up with the Xifaxan killer. What better way to show the nonsense of free cash flow in this kind of pharma business than to deliver the dagger yourself? And nevermind the brand value attached to the Xifaxan pink fellow. Have you see how adorable that guy is? Think about the theme parks and Halloween licensing potential from that asset. Even if (and it's a big "if") Xifaxan has real, massive amortization expense, I think the brand value of the pink Mr. Xifaxan provides downside support on the stock price. Sir, do you even understand the platform value of this cuddly creature? Oddly enough, he appears to be a VRX shareholder... Perhaps the secret master plan was to give VRX shareholders massive IBS from seeing their stock prices dive 50%, to drive sales of Xifaxan! I can't even get on Pearson's level... A visionary! LOL...one of the best posts I've read on here in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorsiacapital Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 dorsia, you couldn't be more wrong about Salix/Xifaxan. Clearly this is just a clever bear raid by John Hempton who took on a side gig as an R&D scientist at Allergan. He toiled away for months, shit posting on Cafe Pharma during lunch breaks, and eventually coming up with the Xifaxan killer. What better way to show the nonsense of free cash flow in this kind of pharma business than to deliver the dagger yourself? And nevermind the brand value attached to the Xifaxan pink fellow. Have you see how adorable that guy is? Think about the theme parks and Halloween licensing potential from that asset. Even if (and it's a big "if") Xifaxan has real, massive amortization expense, I think the brand value of the pink Mr. Xifaxan provides downside support on the stock price. Sir, do you even understand the platform value of this cuddly creature? Oddly enough, he appears to be a VRX shareholder... Perhaps the secret master plan was to give VRX shareholders massive IBS from seeing their stock prices dive 50%, to drive sales of Xifaxan! I can't even get on Pearson's level... A visionary! Touche good sir, I am still a new investor and have failed to recognize the true durability of the platform concept. If production starts soon, I think the animated film can hit theaters in 2018 and unleash massive ebitda....and then of course, maybe Valeant can start selling life rights and such for the dramatic film that may be coming as well about Philidor. They'll be a media company in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-he-will-take-more-proactive-role-in-managing-valeant-investment-2016-03-15 No Kidding Hopefully not as proactive as his role in managing Herbalife! He didn't manage Herbalife, might you mean JC Penny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bksimon Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Dep't of Schadenfreude: Pershing Square stock down 15% today as Valeant hits -50% for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Amen Picasso, now you get it. Buybacks are so 2000 and late. (Not that valeant ever did them anyway). Fooling bondholders into thinking bankruptcy is imminent so you can buy debt super cheap is Outsider 2.0: leveraging to delever. So Pearson is playing a game of chicken with the bondholders??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 2:36 pm ET *Martin Shkreli Sees Fair Value in Valeant as $24/Share LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Problem with Valeant is that to get debt down in 2016, they can't do it through cash flow materially and would have to sell assets - at a time when they won't get top dollar for their assets necessarily. If I take this presentation from January slide 23 http://ir.valeant.com/~/media/Files/V/Valeant-IR/reports-and-presentations/jpm-2016-presentation.pdf which shows debt paydown of 2.2 Billion based on adjusted EBITDA of 7.0 Billion for 2016; and combine that with new 2016 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.7 billion (midpoint from below quote) then that translates to $0.9 Billion in debt paydown for 2016. That is close enough to zero for me - ie no ability to materially pay down debt in 2016 - because if the 0.9 billion materializes they might need that for liquidity, legal, paying bankers for divestitures, another operating surprise, etc. Who knows what 2017 looks like, first they have to get there, and then they get into debt maturities a year or two later. Their debt is surely going to get downgraded tonight or in the coming days. This is now most likely to be a restructuring situation rather than business as usual. Basically seems like a shit show now (I haven't yet listened to the conference call today though). The debt is probably investable at some point and may present a bargain. Stock is extremely tricky - Ackman is in over his head on this one, although he does have a background in bankruptcy proceedings, etc so that could help him here a bit. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/valeant-pharmaceuticals-reports-preliminary-unaudited-100000035.html "2016 Guidance Update Total Revenue expected to be $11.0 - $11.2 billion from previous guidance of $12.5 - $12.7 billion Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) expected to be $9.50 - $10.50 from previous guidance of $13.25 - $13.75 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) expected to be $5.6 - $5.8 billion from previous guidance of $6.9 - $7.1 billion Financial guidance for 2016 reflects reduced revenue assumptions for certain businesses, new managed care contracts and increased investment in key functions, such as financial reporting, public and government relations and compliance, as well as the impact of the weak first quarter of 2016. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 dorsia, you couldn't be more wrong about Salix/Xifaxan. Clearly this is just a clever bear raid by John Hempton who took on a side gig as an R&D scientist at Allergan. He toiled away for months, shit posting on Cafe Pharma during lunch breaks, and eventually coming up with the Xifaxan killer. What better way to show the nonsense of free cash flow in this kind of pharma business than to deliver the dagger yourself? Dude John Hempton once lost money on Fairfax. Therefore he is scum and the worst investor in the world. Therefore VRX is a steal at these prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I got lucky as I sold my extremely small position I bought at $61 last week. Now I'm wondering what part of the capital struck is the best buy. Unfortunately I'm so busy this week I don't have time to do the damn analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I wonder if FFH would buy some VRX shares lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 dorsia, you couldn't be more wrong about Salix/Xifaxan. Clearly this is just a clever bear raid by John Hempton who took on a side gig as an R&D scientist at Allergan. He toiled away for months, shit posting on Cafe Pharma during lunch breaks, and eventually coming up with the Xifaxan killer. What better way to show the nonsense of free cash flow in this kind of pharma business than to deliver the dagger yourself? Dude John Hempton once lost money on Fairfax. Therefore he is scum and the worst investor in the world. Therefore VRX is a steal at these prices. You sound like a guy who eats IRR's for breakfast. And not someone who does shit analysis either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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