gary17 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Not impressed with no iPhone 5S or 5C offering on ALSK's web site GNCMA at least got a web page allowing customers to register - >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Ok just got a response from them saying the iPhones are available now 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Ok just got a response from them saying the iPhones are available now 8) they issued a press release -- saying pre orders will be up 9/25 for 10/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunninghamew Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Somone I know just gave me a heads up that ALSK will be presenting at the DB Leveraged Finance Conf on 10/1/2013 at 1 pm. Thought I would pass on for those that are interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Quick question. So my understanding is that GNCMA and ALSK operate as a duopoly when it comes to their home/business broadband business. Does anyone know the structure of this duopoly -- ie do they compete against one another in most/all cities? Or do they compete/overlap only in some cities and for the most part operate as monopolies in where they exist. Thanks.) (In NYC for example, even though there are many Cable providers, in neighborhoods/buidlings you really only actually have 2 choices or just 1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Packer and others, How much debt paydown are you guys modeling over the next 3/4 years? thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 krazeenyc Going by what the company has done and said thus far, I'd say that a safe bet is 90% of core FCF (i.e. without AWN) as well as 80% of AWN related FCF. They used 65% of the first 100m bcause of various expenss that made up about 20%: "GCI paid ACS $100.0 million at closing, and we used $65.0 million of these proceeds to pay down our senior term loan facility. Of the remaining $35.0 million of liquidity, $3.8 million is dedicated to unwind interest rate swaps, $8.9 million to fund fees and expenses due at closing, and $7.5 million is set aside to fund certain changes in working capital associated with the transaction." ] [last 10-Q p. 18] I think these numbers can go down a bit if they get increased competition from Verizon but based on the CEO's recent comments this will be delayed: "We -- we do not know when Verizon will be in the retail market. It appears to be delayed compared to what we thought -- where we thought they would be. But we -- that’s just our point of view. We have no visibility into when they plan to be in the -- in the retail market." [see: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1724312-alaska-communications-ceo-presents-at-deutsche-bank-securities-21st-annual-leveraged-finance-conference-transcript ] I am a bit more excited about the share buy back he discussed (10% of outstanding shares) - I am hoping this will be a catalyst to take the price up above 3 dollars! As usual, Packer likely knows more about this, so I hope he chimes in ... Cheers, xtreeq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 krazeenyc Going by what the company has done and said thus far, I'd say that a safe bet is 90% of core FCF (i.e. without AWN) as well as 80% of AWN related FCF. They used 65% of the first 100m bcause of various expenss that made up about 20%: "GCI paid ACS $100.0 million at closing, and we used $65.0 million of these proceeds to pay down our senior term loan facility. Of the remaining $35.0 million of liquidity, $3.8 million is dedicated to unwind interest rate swaps, $8.9 million to fund fees and expenses due at closing, and $7.5 million is set aside to fund certain changes in working capital associated with the transaction." ] [last 10-Q p. 18] I think these numbers can go down a bit if they get increased competition from Verizon but based on the CEO's recent comments this will be delayed: "We -- we do not know when Verizon will be in the retail market. It appears to be delayed compared to what we thought -- where we thought they would be. But we -- that’s just our point of view. We have no visibility into when they plan to be in the -- in the retail market." [see: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1724312-alaska-communications-ceo-presents-at-deutsche-bank-securities-21st-annual-leveraged-finance-conference-transcript ] I am a bit more excited about the share buy back he discussed (10% of outstanding shares) - I am hoping this will be a catalyst to take the price up above 3 dollars! As usual, Packer likely knows more about this, so I hope he chimes in ... Cheers, xtreeq I think you misread the buyback part -- that's just him saying the board authorized them to issue shares to buy back the convertible notes (a total of 4.7 million shares) . So far they've issued appx 1.9 million shares to buy back those converts -- and have 2.8 million shares more they can issue to buy back some more of those notes. Like Olmsted said, it looks like they're trying to buyback some of those notes to reach a targeted debt/ebitda ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 If Verizon buys one of ALSK or general communications, what would happen to the valuation of the firm that's not bought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookie71 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Why would Version want to buy either? Most people I talk to want to get away from GCI or ACS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Not sure either. I bought plenty today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Tom Noticed you are from Belgium - my gf and I were actually there last spring - what a wonderful place. Must be nice to do value investing in such a nice city in Europe !! 8) I bought some more ALSK today as well. I did email the CFO - no response yet. I got lucky a few times in the past emailing management - and when they write back saying they don't know - it's usually a good time to load up :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Hehe let me know if the answer you! Where in Belgium did you stay? And where are you from? I'm from Ghent but am now in Lisbon for holiday, beautiful place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 We were in Brussels for two days, then actually went to Ghent and Bruges on a day tour. I was amazed with all the nice squares in your cities. I'm from Vancouver, Canada. We have lot of mountains and oceans here - just lacks that 1000 year old street :) I doubt management will write back - for about 50 of these emails I write I might get 2 back. Will keep everyone posted. ENjoy your vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I added today as well. I was browsing the ALSK website and noticed they sell iPhone 5S (I don't know what they have in stock, etc.) for $0.00 with contract. Is this typical for them? Or might they be extra aggressive looking to lock up customers prior to VZ's entrance into the market. Looks like they've got their Debt down to $440 million as of the last convert $95 mill so far this year + another 5 million or so via the convertibles. Management has stated that they intend to 1 paydown debt and grow FCF from their broadband business. What do you guys think total debt will look like after 4 years of AWN distributitions ($190 m). Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Well according to their presentation Ebitda = 90 Capital spending 45 Interest expense 31 Fcf = 15 So 410 – 15x3 =365m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Well according to their presentation Ebitda = 90 Capital spending 45 Interest expense 31 Fcf = 15 So 410 – 15x3 =365m That's their guidance for the first year post AWN right -- end of 2014 right? ( I wonder if this takes into account the converts they just cashed out - and possible future converts). We know that they get 50/50/45/45 from AWN assuming they maintain their customer levels. Year 2, their ebitda (from high speed internet ) and therefore FCF should be up, while Interest expense should be down. Year 3, is where I wonder if the increase in internet ebitda will make up for the $5 million less in AWN distributions - but interest expense should be down further. The real question is what happens to capex in years 2-4 and in the future. I could be wrong but I seem to remember hearing a target of 3.5x Debt to Ebitda target at the last CC as the level that would allow them to do things like buyback stock/issue dividends (not that I want that) . I guess I'm wondering if by year 3/4 it is realistic for them to have their ebitda at $100-110 while their debt sits around $350 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookie71 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 FYI The Anchorage Costco is now selling Verison plans instead of AT&T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 thanks my understanding is verizon's got data - voice will roam through AWN. AWN should be able to compete with VZ - ALSK will still have the wireline business that's steady. the investment for alsk is that if they can start paying down debt, hopefully they can re-instate the dividend =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Hey packer, got any idea what the bonds are trading at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 They are at 85.8. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Anybody looked at OTEL? EV=146.76m Market cap=24.68m projected Ebidta~30m/yr Company went through prepackaged bankruptcy filing in May. look like about 6m free cash flow last quarter communication about restructuring is attached 130201_Restructuring_Investor_Presentation_-_final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 We were in Brussels for two days, then actually went to Ghent and Bruges on a day tour. I was amazed with all the nice squares in your cities. I'm from Vancouver, Canada. We have lot of mountains and oceans here - just lacks that 1000 year old street :) I doubt management will write back - for about 50 of these emails I write I might get 2 back. Will keep everyone posted. ENjoy your vacation. Thank you. Wish we could have stayed. ;) One day I'll visit Canada and I'm confident it will be in the next 5 years! They are at 85.8. Packer Thanks Packer! What is your position size now btw? Did you buy some shares back? Anybody looked at OTEL? EV=146.76m Market cap=24.68m projected Ebidta~30m/yr Company went through prepackaged bankruptcy filing in May. look like about 6m free cash flow last quarter communication about restructuring is attached Thank you zippy, I'll have a look later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 I sold about 50% of my position in August above $3.50 and purchased General Communications. I have added to General Communications with any sales as I see the upside greater and the downside less than ALSK. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schin Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Would you consider General Communications a better buy now than ALSK at 2.61? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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