tombgrt Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I believe he just said exactly that schin. ;) thanks packer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 OTEL looks interesting but LICT is cheaper and has better assets but is much more illiquid and has less debt. I do like that OTEL has a nice option characteristic however. OTEL's revenues appear to be declining at about 6.5% annually while LICT's revenues are declining closer to 1% annually. I am not sure OTEL may not turn into a quickly melting ice cube. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Packer I'm wondering what you calculate GCI's free cash flow after cap ex and interest expense is post Awn..... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunninghamew Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I know most of the people in this name are probably not interested in writing calls agianst their common (covered calls). I just wanted to point out the April 2014 - $2.50 calls... trading with a bid/ask spread of 0.40/0.50 I am not an options trader, but that seems like an awfully big premium someone is willing to pay on those options... implied vol of about 60% There are probably some interesting calendar spreads that could be put on as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 With free cash flow at 15M and a market cap around 115M - it's close to 8x FCF yield are we better off just to buy GNCMA ? Originally we had an estimation of 30M FCF but somehow it comes down b/c of dilution and other adjustment... I feel GNCMA is better now Well according to their presentation Ebitda = 90 Capital spending 45 Interest expense 31 Fcf = 15 So 410 – 15x3 =365m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 FCF is partly what it is because they are investing heavily in growth now with $15m/year in additional SG&A. Dilution doesn't have a lot of effect. ALSK is still pretty cheap but I also sold almost all that I bought earlier at $2.34 for a 12% gain in a couple of days. I still hold a sizeable position but my holding in GNCMA is bigger now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Up 7% right before earnings. Does the market know something we don't? Will be interesting to see the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 http://investors.alsk.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=805041 Pretty much as expected -- Net Debt seems to be significantly lower than expected. You guys are right about GCI being the better business in the long run. Here's why I bought ALSK (besides being cheap and all). 1) ALSK offers investors a very simple story. They've got fixed $$ coming in for the next 4 years from AWN. AWN is worth X. ALSK's other business is very easy to understand and there are really no big risks to that part of the business (IE. no cord cutting, etc.). Also ALSK's broadband business seems to be picking up momentum as they are able to focus on it -- broadband to small and med sized businesses is a very nice business right now. 2) ALSK is a much more likely acquisition target -- as VZ or T would likely have anti-trust issues buying GCI. And relative to their size -- they have some nice assets (AKORN) etc. (Note I did just sell about 10% at at $2.78 :D)' (ended up selling most of my position avg price $2.78) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 3rd quarter result out http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alaska-communications-systems-reports-third-210500674.html Growth in Wireline revenue, led by Broadband revenue growth of 19.4% Over $134.2 of net debt reductions on a year-to-date basis AWN transaction closed and monthly preferred distribution payments have commenced Guidance affirmed for the year, with free cash flow at the high end of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 i did get some GCI because it's cheap and i'm slowing coming to the realization that cash flow is an important aspect of how i look at business... i do think similar to krazy that i like alsk's simpler story / business plan: pay down debt with AWN's dividends and grow the cable internet / wireline business over time... and hopefully get us back to dividend. gci's result just came out too - I wonder if anyone thought of the possibility of GCI & ALSK merge - thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceSanity Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It's strange how ALSK gets more attention in the market than GCI. GCI's results look very good. They're also repurchasing shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It's strange how ALSK gets more attention in the market than GCI. GCI's results look very good. They're also repurchasing shares. Lance, What EV/Evidta would be appropriate for GCI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Sorry for jacking the thread, but I want to get the Board's input on GCI's implied valuation by management given its meager buybacks - I just read GCI's press release and it states: GCI repurchased 242,000 shares of its Class A common stock in the third quarter of 2013 at a cost of $2 million. GCI is authorized to repurchase $101 million of its shares depending on company performance, market conditions, liquidity, leverage and subject to board oversight. The average repurchase price is $ 8.26, a price last seen in the second half of June, which is likely when the shares were purchased .... however, what is strange for me is that GCI used only 2% of the authorized repurchase figure where by my calculations they could have acquired a few million shares at those prices and even well below (under 7.70 at one point) when they had 26 million in cash at the end of the previous quarter, and had actually repurchased 13m worth of stock in the first half of the year when share prices were generally higher, it had less cash and share price only briefly went under $8 once in mid-Feb. I realize management may have been acting prudently given the assumption of debt for the AWN deal and their desire to see that everything went smoothly, but given that Packer thinks this stock has the potential to be a double or a triple, why are buybacks relatively anemic?!? Is there something we are missing in the valuation that makes management not buy back at >$10 level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GCI is highly leveraged and focused on growing its EBITDA, which they are doing very successfully btw. I believe there shouldn't be too much emphasis on buybacks both in a short time period and in general. They have a good track record allocating capital so if they decide to buy back "just" 0,5% of shares each quarter, I'm fine with that. Edit: I believe they have stated in the past that they try not to be movers of the stock but rather "act like passive buyers" when buying back stock. I should look it up tho and the above is far from the correct quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 just read the conf call transcript http://seekingalpha.com/article/1814982-alaska-communications-systems-groups-ceo-discusses-q3-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single seems like some execution issues they have about matching their resources to demand.... and the fact this quarter also includes 22 days of AWN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 down more than 5% now :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 don't understand thought it's a good Q down more than 5% now :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 i thought it was an OK quarter - perhaps Packer / Tom / others could comment. I also think the price drop might be because of the good GDP numbers which means higher interest rate down the road, which would have an impact on the business. So this plus Verizon coming next year would put pressure on the valuation. But if they over time can do $15 - $20M FCF after interest expense, cap ex, then at about $100M valuation today seems quite attractive. I am considering averaging down - but like to wait a bit more before pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 from the conference call, Hmmm?? ??? http://seekingalpha.com/article/1814982-alaska-communications-systems-groups-ceo-discusses-q3-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2 And lastly, we did not do a good job of matching our resources to our demand. We are working to address these issues. Part of the answer is in resourcing. Some of this is better internal alignment of resources to simplify how we do business, some additional work and improving monitoring and oversight, and lastly, a longer-term program of lean initiative to eliminate risk in our process. As we improve our back office performance, we expect to see improvements in our revenue performance. In terms of the pricing in the marketplace and the shifts and fluctuations that you are seeing on our side, those are retails tactics that are playing out in the marketplace and we are working hard to keep any of the back office issues from impacting our retail strategies. So the changes that you see is part of how we have chosen to go to market in terms of the various devices and the plans that we have in offer. I won't read anything more into that than it's just retail tactics being played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 zippy , are you from taiwan or are you in taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Packer, I feel it's a wise move to sell ALSK above 3.5 to exchange for GNCMA but now ALSK is 2.1 and 100M - if we use a normalized maintenance capex the FCF should be above 30M, I feel now it's better to buy ALSK What do you think ? /plato1976 I sold about 50% of my position in August above $3.50 and purchased General Communications. I have added to General Communications with any sales as I see the upside greater and the downside less than ALSK. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 It has gotten cheaper but I still like GNCMA better because it is cheaper and has less debt on a EBITDA basis and safer from a coverage perspective and organic CF growth of about 7% per year. It also qualitatively has an effective capital allocater. ALSK also appears to have one also but his track record is shorter than the CEO of GNCMA. I still hold ALSK but I have a much larger position and have been adding to GNCMA. GNCMA has a nice presentation on their web site. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Packer do you mean the presentation from the Deutsche Bank conference that has been online a few weeks now? I wonder who is selling GNCMA here, numbers are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 zippy , are you from taiwan or are you in taiwan. Gary, Actually, both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 zippy have you bot value stocks in taiwan? i'm from taiwan originally too, but can't find a good system that allows me to screen stocks in taiwan.... i've only bot 6206 from about 2 years ago - pays about 13% dividend i believe. Packer - I am wondering if you could let us know the bond price for ALSK.... I want to look it up online but can't seem to find any info for some reason. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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