Spekulatius Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 S&P credit rating is rating the security of the bonds, not the upside for the equity. Those two a very different things. TSLA has significant risk in terms of execution and a substantial debt load (~2B$ although they have an equally substantial cash hoard). One single thing (Gigafactory) going wrong could derail this thing. While they have shown strong execution in the past let's not forget that they are still loosing money. Something like GM may not have TSLA growth and upside with the equity, but I would rather own GM bonds than TSLA bonds just to name one example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 S&P credit rating is rating the security of the bonds, not the upside for the equity. Those two a very different things. TSLA has significant risk in terms of execution and a substantial debt load (~2B$ although they have an equally substantial cash hoard). One single thing (Gigafactory) going wrong could derail this thing. While they have shown strong execution in the past let's not forget that they are still loosing money. Something like GM may not have TSLA growth and upside with the equity, but I would rather own GM bonds than TSLA bonds just to name one example. This is true. While it is possible that a number of bad events could send TSLA into bankruptcy , GM (which should be bankrupt already) is effectively backed by the US government and can take any risks it wants without worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Tesla's Musk says company won't decide on Gigafactory site til year's end http://www.cnbc.com/id/101694146 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 As a follow up to the discussion about battery breakthroughs and something obsoleting the Gigafactory, from the shareholder meeting: Q. What about the threat of a surprise battery breakthrough from a mad scientist somewhere? A. “There are potential breakthroughs out there, but we have yet to see one — to see even a single example in our lab — of a cell working at the laboratory level, that is better than the one that we have or the ones that we expect to come out with. And so, my response always, when I hear about, um, electro-chemical breakthroughs, is, ‘Please send us a sample cell.’ That usually, well that always, has resulted in nothing coming.” Q. How quickly could the Gigafactory be re-tooled for new battery composition if needed? A. “It would be fairly straightforward for us to change the anode or cathode composition. In fact, we expect to evolve the anode and cathode. It’s not merely, ‘What if that happens.’ We expect that to happen.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallCap Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Morgan Stanley On Tesla: 'Whoa' "Not even two years after the delivery of the first Model S, Tesla Motors has transformed from fledgling start-up to arguably the most important car company in the world. We are not joking." http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-teslawhoa-2014-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 We're still at the point where every time someone crashes a Model S it makes the news. This sounds like a bad one ("collided with several vehicles in West Hollywood and split the car into two parts when he crashed into a lightpole, triggering a battery fire, according to police reports"), yet still no fatalities. Tesla Eager to Study Stolen Model S Split in Fiery Crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Tesla’s China Exports to Be Quarterly Bright Spot, Barclays Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-07/tesla-s-china-sales-to-be-quarterly-bright-spot-barclays-says.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Stolen Tesla’s Fatality-Free L.A. Crash Surprises Experts http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/stolen-tesla-s-fatality-free-l-a-crash-surprises-experts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Stolen Tesla’s Fatality-Free L.A. Crash Surprises Experts http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/stolen-tesla-s-fatality-free-l-a-crash-surprises-experts.html He died. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/driver-of-stolen-tesla-dies-after-crash-in-los-angeles.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Question for the board, and maybe this one is for ERICOPOLY since he's an owner. If in a few years owners sense that their battery has run its course and its performance is waning -- what systems are in place, if any, to prevent an owner from pulling up to a Supercharging station, and paying for a $70 battery swap? Will TSLA be able to track who swapped the battery and if it was defective? Otherwise, seems like a pretty nice way to upgrade to a better battery, or -- even less insidious, seems like a good way for TSLA owners to get around the anxiety of owning a vehicle whose battery needs to be eventually replaced...just do a swap twice a year...it's like getting your oil changed, but you're hedged against obsolescence. The question is...who holds the bag on the bad batteries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Question for the board, and maybe this one is for ERICOPOLY since he's an owner. If in a few years owners sense that their battery has run its course and its performance is waning -- what systems are in place, if any, to prevent an owner from pulling up to a Supercharging station, and paying for a $70 battery swap? Will TSLA be able to track who swapped the battery and if it was defective? Otherwise, seems like a pretty nice way to upgrade to a better battery, or -- even less insidious, seems like a good way for TSLA owners to get around the anxiety of owning a vehicle whose battery needs to be eventually replaced...just do a swap twice a year...it's like getting your oil changed, but you're hedged against obsolescence. The question is...who holds the bag on the bad batteries? From memory, they said that if you don't come back to pick up your original battery after a certain amount of time, you'll get invoiced for the new battery. They know exactly which Tesla gets which battery pack. A couple other things to consider: By the time some of the current crop of batteries need replacement, new batteries will be a lot less expensive, and probably last quite a bit longer too. But I suspect that for many, batteries holding just 90% or 80% of what they used to hold won't be a big deal; gasoline cars also get less efficient with age, so you can't drive as far on a tank of gas. This hasn't caused a big uproar. I think most Tesla owners will probably keep the same battery for the life of the vehicle. Good power management can make batteries last quite a long time. There are some 10-year-old hybrids used as taxis that have hundreds of thousands of miles and are still going strong with old battery tech compared to a Tesla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yeah -- I think the durability of the batteries may surprise to the upside. I have a friend who is an economist which specializes in alternative energy and vehicles at U Chicago, and he's mentioned the Prius taxis with hundreds of thousands of miles that Toyota has repurchased to study -- a lot less degradation than originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripleoptician Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 As an owner I would think most owners don't have anxiety about battery life. When you compare the maintenance gas cost / year of an ICE vehicle, the replacement battery will pay for itself within 2-3 years and then provide several more years of low maintenance cost if keeping the same Tesla beyond 10 years. For example, to drive 20,000 km /yr will cost $300/yr for my Tesla electricity cost vs. $5000/yr for gas in my ICE. (Disregarding ongoing maintenance cost differences) There is huge speculation on what replacement cost will be in 8-10 yrs ($10-40,000) but I would certainly take the bet that in that timeframe, battery costs are down and fuel costs have gone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I bought the 85 kWh battery for two reasons: 1) harder acceleration 2) more range than I currently need Eight years from now, let's say my 260 miles of range has dropped to 200 miles (they estimate 20% degradation after 8 years). It's still going to be an awesome car for what I need living here in Santa Barbara. However, if you start out with a Nissan Leaf you get only 80 miles from day one. After eight years if it degrades by 20% you only have 64 miles. So I could see a Leaf owner feeling that it was a mistake to have a car that can only travel 64 miles and would need a new battery at that point, but I think I can live with a 200 mile range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Tesla's Entry-Level Car to Be Called the Model III Car Is Centerpiece of Tesla's strategy to Move from a Luxury Player to a Mass-Market Electric Vehicle Seller http://online.wsj.com/articles/teslas-entry-level-car-to-be-called-the-model-iii-1405520969?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection The lower-cost electric car, which the company aims to price at $35,000 and offer 200 miles of electric range, is the centerpiece of Tesla's strategy to move from a luxury player to a mass-market electric vehicle seller. ... Tesla is due to release its second vehicle, the Model X, in early 2015. That vehicle will be an all-wheel-drive sport-utility with falcon-wing doors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PLynchJr Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Sign me up for a Model III. Can't wait to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Sign me up for a Model III. Can't wait to see it. +1, I've never spent anywhere near $35K on a car (I'm not a car person. I like driving, I just hate spending money on cars), but I'm going to have a serious look at the MIII when it comes out. My 2007 Hyundai will be 10 years old by then, perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/07/25/elon-musk-on-the-colbert-report-last-night-vs-2010/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3368904070x0x772849/0cdad2cf-0497-41a3-ad2a-788f57412777/Tesla%20Q2'14%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf In addition, we are adding new production capacity at our Fremont factory that will allow us to meet the growing worldwide demand for our vehicles. The speed at which we are executing this capacity upgrade will allow us to exceed 35,000 Model S deliveries this year. Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks, Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The speed at which we are executing this capacity upgrade will allow us to exceed 35,000 Model S deliveries this year. Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks, Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year. Get that $1,000 bucks ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 It was $100. But yes, it is most definitely ready and will be a small addition to my existing TSLA losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Curious, who actually owns TSLA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Curious, who actually owns TSLA? I own it and have never caught so much crap from value investors over it. I ended up buying way more than I should have as a result (always funny to be contrarian to contrarians). The stock seems like a hybrid of Amazon and Google. The company IPO'd during a terrible time in 2010 similar to Google having an IPO after the bust and the lack of profits leaves everyone short or hating the stock like Amazon. Knowing the history of that, I have no idea why someone would short Tesla on market psychology alone. There are so many better shorts out there.... JB Straubel had a pretty compelling talk at Stanford regarding their roadmap to 800k in vehicle sales by 2018 or so. Even at 800k/year they are looking at less than 1% market share for a company whose mission is to have half the market using electric. There is a chance it doesn't work out, but if it does work out I suspect the returns compensate for a lot of the risk. Elon has been pretty damn good about delivering on his promises. I got to about $100 a share on Model S/Roadster sales alone and the rest of the business seems like a free option if you could purchase under $100. That said they could leverage, mismamage costs and blow up on some new models so that free option might not really exist if they cannot handle the growth phase. From what I have researched, that is a primary people who short Tesla have an incredibly low price target of $15-30 in which case it would be better to play the options since that is a binary event. I plan to hold my shares a very long time as long as the majority of my thesis holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Tesla does not make a profit servicing it's cars -- it does so at cost. There is also less to service in the first place with electric cars. Traditional dealerships would therefore never want to sell a Tesla, unless Tesla cut them a really fat commission on sale. That would make the sticker price too high on the sale for an already-very-expensive car. So how will BMW build and sell all-electric "Tesla killers"? Will they sell them directly, undercutting their dealerships? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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