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Palantir

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So I was reading this month's Fortune, and it had a blurb about a new battery manufacturer.

 

It occurs to me that the traditional risk that Tesla's batteries get leapfrogged because of the fact that newer or better technology comes online might be a little overblown. Might there be some path-dependency and/or lock-in the way that QWERTY keyboards beat Dvorak keyboards?

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So I was reading this month's Fortune, and it had a blurb about a new battery manufacturer.

 

It occurs to me that the traditional risk that Tesla's batteries get leapfrogged because of the fact that newer or better technology comes online might be a little overblown. Might there be some path-dependency and/or lock-in the way that QWERTY keyboards beat Dvorak keyboards?

 

There might be some resistance, but not as much as with keyboards.  Once you can type 30-60 wpm, learning a new keyboard layout is a lot of work for not much gain.  You'd do it if it meant being able to type 500 wpm though.  If a new battery technology exists that can give significantly more range and be just as durable and long lasting I think it will be adopted by the industry.  Including TSLA.  I'm sure it would be cheaper in the long run to re-tool the factory to produce the new type of battery than it would be to stick with the old type and be behind the rest of the industry.  I don't think that this is much of a threat, because battery technology doesn't move very fast.  A new technology would not only have to hold more charge, but it would have to be as durable (cars take a beating), as safe, work at extreme temperatures (both Alaska and Arizona), be as long lasting, and as inexpensive.  Those are a lot of ifs, a battery working in a lab setting is very different from a mature automotive grade product.  TSLA will get 10 good years out of its factory even if a new battery technology is discovered today.

 

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Eric,

Just curious if there is anything about your model S that you don't like?

I'd like to be a shareholder at some point.

Musk is amazing!

 

The automatic raising and lowering has been imperfect.  I've had it lower the nose onto the top of a parking block -- I hear it scrape when I come back to the car after shopping and reverse.

 

They have introduced some bugs during their various software updates, but the symptoms are easy to notice and easy to cure.  I find that if I just reboot the cars computer the symptoms vanish.  The symptom was that the GPS navigation system started to malfunction.  There are two buttons on the steering wheel that you simultaneously press down and hold down for a while -- then it reboots.  But it doesn't affect the driving of the car when the computer goes berzerk -- just the utility of the GPS.  I've had the whole computer screen freeze up too.

 

So it's kind of like having an Apple product.  You reboot it and it fixes the issue.

 

I've also worn out the high performance tires relatively quickly and they are expensive -- they slip a bit more now.

 

And the interior is nice, but it isn't a luxury-car grade interior.  The driving however is far superior -- I love the "single peddle" driving... so simple.

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Someone on the internets was speculating that they might be shifting do a dealership model. I have no idea of the plausibility of this (maybe for select markets)? But could be an interesting capital raising vehicle for the company...selling franchises, that is. Might also help them scale.

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Someone on the internets was speculating that they might be shifting do a dealership model. I have no idea of the plausibility of this (maybe for select markets)? But could be an interesting capital raising vehicle for the company...selling franchises, that is. Might also help them scale.

 

That would be switching from a more efficient model to an outdated less efficient model purely for political reasons.  I hope not.

 

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Someone on the internets was speculating that they might be shifting do a dealership model. I have no idea of the plausibility of this (maybe for select markets)? But could be an interesting capital raising vehicle for the company...selling franchises, that is. Might also help them scale.

 

That would be switching from a more efficient model to an outdated less efficient model purely for political reasons.  I hope not.

 

They could do a dealer sort of as a franchisee...Tesla only dealers etc with the dealer being a total shell entity just to get around the loophole.

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"D"

 

All wheel drive Model S.

 

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

 

It's standard on Model X

 

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.

 

The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".

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"D"

 

All wheel drive Model S.

 

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

 

It's standard on Model X

 

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.

 

The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".

 

Not sure why it can't be a variation on model s like a model sd, like eric described.

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"D"

 

All wheel drive Model S.

 

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

 

It's standard on Model X

 

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.

 

The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".

 

Not sure why it can't be a variation on model s like a model sd, like eric described.

 

It could be, but that is a car, not an announcement that they are opening dealerships.  It could also be a new redesigned or updated and rebranded version of the Roadster.

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So 90% of the time if you don't watch the road, you will not crash. Not sure if i like those odds.

 

Depends how the road is painted.

 

A terrorist could just repaint the highway lanes in the night so that everyone with a self-driving car goes off the cliff.

 

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The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".

I am going with Eric's guess -- "Dual Drive". The other letter is also D. Imagine if Musk tweeted about revealing a DD. Hence his comment that he is glad he didn't mention the other letter.

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